Month: August 2021

Good morning. We are into the final week of August, and this brings both good and bad news. The good news is that we’re much closer to the end of summer than the beginning. Based upon our climate normals, the warmest stretch of summer in Houston lasts from July 31 through August 8, when the average temperature is 85.8 degrees. (That’s simply an average of the daily high and low temperature). We are, reasonably, about one month from when we can expect fall’s first significant cool front.

The bad news is that we still have about a full month of summer left, and it coincides with the absolute peak of hurricane season for Texas. Although we see no immediate threats to the greater Houston region (read more below), the next few weeks do look active for the Gulf of Mexico. So we’re asking you to hang on for one more month, after which we’ll escape the heat of summer and the main threat of tropical activity.

Monday

Monday will see a continuation of conditions the region experienced over the weekend, which is to say hot and sunny. High temperatures for inland areas could well flirt with 100 degrees, and even coastal areas should be solidly in the low- to mid-90s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with only light southerly winds. This will be a day for care during the hottest, afternoon hours. Overnight lows should be in the upper 70s.

Tuesday

Another hot and sunny day, with high temperatures in the upper 90s. Winds will again be calm.

Wednesday and Thursday

Our overall pattern should begin to change by the middle of the week, as high pressure lifts away from the area. This should bring a few clouds to our skies, and introduce rain chances of perhaps 30 to 40 percent each day during the afternoon hours. This may also help to moderate temperatures slightly, from the upper 90s to mid-90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend forecast is far from settled, but for now it appears as though the combination of low pressure and increasing levels of tropical moisture should combine for healthy rain chances, especially by Sunday. For now I’d guess we’ll see highs in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies, and at least a 50 percent chance of rain showers each day. Under some scenarios, heavy rain is possible by Sunday, but that will depend to some extent on tropical development, discussed below.

Tropics

After Tropical Storm Henri moved into the northeastern United States this weekend, there are no active systems over water. However that could change later this week as a tropical wave moves into the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center gives this wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next five days.

The global models are generally pretty bullish on this system eventually developing in the Southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and it’s something we’ll be watching closely as it will influence our rain chances this weekend. For now the bulk of these models suggest the storm will come ashore somewhere along the Mexican mainland, south of the Texas border. Although it is far too early to have much confidence in this, such a scenairo would also be unfortunate, give the recent landfall of Hurricane Grace near the resort town of Tecolutla.

After this system, there are hints of more potential activity in the Gulf of Mexico about two weeks from now, which would be consistent with early September. As we said above, the next month is the peak of hurricane season for Texas, so have a plan and be prepared.

Thursday saw the beginning of the transition from our wet pattern this week to a much drier one as we head into the weekend. Recent rain totals have varied widely across the area. Let’s quickly just look at rain totals for the last 7 days.

Since last week, we’ve seen as much as 6 and a half inches of rain between the Galleria and Beltway, with the highest observed total I can find being 6.68″ at Buffalo Bayou and San Felipe. New Territory out by Sugar Land has seen over 5 inches over the last week, as have parts of Pasadena and Cypress as well. On the flip side, Katy, Galveston, and League City have all registered maybe a half-inch or less. So that map above may not be entirely accurate for your specific backyard. That’s the challenge of Southeast Texas rain. Literally one side of the street can see rain while the other side is dry. Speaking of rain, it will be a rare commodity over the next 4 to 5 days or so, as summer revs back up.

Today through Sunday

The chance of rain between now and Sunday is certainly not zero, but it’s probably as close to that as you can get this time of year in Southeast Texas. Expect mostly sunny skies the next several days. Here’s the good news, sort of: While it will be hot this weekend with highs well into the mid, if not upper-90s, it will not be exceptionally humid. That said, it will still be hot enough for heat index values to easily top off at or just above 105° each afternoon, which is hot enough to take it easy and drink plenty of water.

Morning lows will be in the 70s. There should be a little breeze each day, but nothing too refreshing or intrusive.

One thing to keep in mind this weekend: As Tropical Storm Grace approaches Mexico, well to our south, some rough surf and strong rip currents should make it to the coast here in Texas. Please use caution if you’ll be swimming in the Gulf. Also, there could be some minor tidal flooding with wave runup, particularly near Surfside Beach or Crystal Beach. Nothing too serious, but we don’t want you to be caught off guard by that.

Monday and Tuesday

Look for a gradual increase in onshore flow. Coupled with a rather hot air mass still overhead, this should yield slightly more unpleasant heat index values, with some areas perhaps sneaking up closer to 110° or so in the afternoon, especially after the sea breeze comes through. That said, the return of onshore flow should mean the return of at least some minor rain chances. Look for a couple showers or storms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. But most of us will probably continue dry.

Later next week

The pattern should return to one that’s at least slightly cooler with more typical rain chances for this time of year. Still, expect generally mid-90s each day.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Grace is in the Bay of Campeche this morning, and it will arrive in Mexico tonight as a hurricane (Editor’s note: It strengthened back into a hurricane just after this post was published).

Grace may actually cross Mexico and wind up in the Pacific Ocean, becoming a new storm next week. Grace would have to maintain organization all the way across to keep the name Grace on the other side. That probably won’t happen, so it’s more likely that Grace will dissipate and reform as a new system in the Pacific. Their next name on the list is Marty. The last storm to fully maintain itself from the Atlantic to the Pacific was Hurricane Otto in 2016. Last season’s Hurricane Nana crossed Belize, dissipated, and reformed in the Pacific as Tropical Storm Julio.

Anyone with friends or family or travel plans in New England will want to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Henri this weekend. Henri has failed to get really organized as of yet, which is good news, as a stronger storm likely would make it farther west before turning. Still, it’s expected to become a hurricane this weekend, and it is now likely to make landfall in New England or perhaps Long Island as a hurricane.

As a result of this, hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect from just east of New York City to just south of Boston. There are still some uncertainties as to exactly how strong Henri will be and where it will make landfall, but given how wet the Northeast has been this summer, flooding could be a significant problem where it does track.

While 3 to 5 inches of rain sounds almost laughable to us in Houston, given the terrain of New England that can cause trouble up there.

Lastly, while we expect a quiet Gulf over the next week, there are at least some hints that tropical moisture or a disturbance could sneak into the western Gulf late next weekend or the week of the 30th. While there’s not a ton of support for anything specific or particularly strong, I think that is the next period we’ll be keeping tabs on in the days ahead. Nothing we need to worry about at this juncture though.

Wednesday’s high temperature across much of the metro area, beneath cloudy skies and on-and-off rain showers, peaked at about 90 to 93 degrees for most of us. Temperatures much of the day were in the 80s. While this was not “cool” by any stretch of the imagination, we are definitely bound for much hotter weather. The period from this coming Sunday through Tuesday should bring 100-degree heat for many inland locations.

Thursday

For those still seeking a bit of rainfall, today will be akin to drinking in the last chance saloon. Although atmospheric moisture levels remain fairly elevated, we’ll begin to feel the influence of high pressure expanding into the region. For this reason rain chances will likely be higher—maybe 40 or 50 percent—closer to the coast with lesser chances inland of Interstate 69 and Highway 59. These showers will be hit or miss, but a few isolated areas could pick up a quick inch of rain or so. Skies should otherwise be partly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s, and light southerly winds. Rain chances will drop as the Sun drops to the horizon.

Friday

As high pressure begins to fully assert itself, this should be a warm and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will be on the order of 10 to 20 percent. Winds will be light, out of the south and southeast.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be a classic August weekend, with highs in the upper 90s to possibly 100 degrees by Sunday. Skies will be mostly sunny with generally light winds. Please take care outside during the hottest part of the day.

Next week

The heat remains turned up through Tuesday, with the potential for 100 degree days and lots of sunshine. A few more clouds return by Wednesday or Thursday, and as high pressure eases off we might even see some modest rain chances toward the end of next week. But it’s still going to be hot, y’all.

Tropics

The tropics remain more or less the same. Hurricane Grace has made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, will cross the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and make a final landfall along the Mexico mainland on Friday night, likely as a Category 1 hurricane. There is less certainty about Tropical Storm Henri. The forecast models are really struggling with this system, and there is still some question about whether it will affect the northeastern coast of the United States late this weekend. There are no immediate concerns beyond these two storms.

We first released the Space City Weather app a little more than two months ago, and I wanted to give you an update on where we are, and where we hope to go. As a reminder, you can download the app on Apple devices here, and Android devices here. The app is free, and there are no ads, no in-app purchases, and no tracking or hoovering of your personal information.

The App so far

First of all, we could not he happier with the response. More than 75,000 people have downloaded the app on Apple and Android devices since its launch. This is a pretty phenomenal response, and we appreciate your interest. We also appreciate your patience as we know the app launched with bugs on both mobile operating systems. We think we’ve now squashed most of them, so be sure you’ve updated the app on your device to get the latest version. After updating, you can report bugs by emailing us.

Plans for the App in 2022

Since the release of our initial app we have received a lot of feedback and feature requests. And we definitely hear you. To create the initial version of our app we exhausted all of our available funds, with the goal of creating a simple, functional app ready to go in time for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. We delivered that.

Now we are contemplating our next steps. After we hold our site’s annual fundraiser in late October and November, we’ll be able to set a budget for upgrades to the Space City Weather App in 2022. Our initial priority is to work with our developer Hussain Abbasi, to include some of our most requested feature upgrades:

• A better radar: larger, time stamps, improved resolution
• Increased number of locations: I.e. Sugar Land, Tomball, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Baytown, etc.
• An hourly percent chance of rain
• Metric unit option

Then, depending on the—cough, cough—robustness of our fundraiser later this year we hope to include some of these additional upgrades later in 2022:

• Dark mode
• Ability to comment on posts within the app
• Tropical weather tab

Plans for the App beyond 2022

Beyond these, we have ideas for future upgrades. We’re still not yet sure how to implement some of these, and some will require a lot of back-end work. So we want you to know we’re considering these ideas, but don’t have immediate plans to include them:

• Pollen counts
• Barometric pressure and trends
• Portrait/horizontal mode
• Apply watch support
• Apple and Android widgets

As always, thank you for your interest in Space City Weather, and for your kind words about our efforts. Matt and I continue to feel as though it is a privilege to serve you all, and we greatly value the trust you place in us.