Month: December 2022

Good morning, y’all. As the title said, today is a weather day you may remember for a long time. I can point to half a dozen vivid weather memories in Houston that are as plain as day for me—late-night flooding during Harvey, Allison, and Imelda; winds and tornadoes during Ike; drought during the summer of 2011; and the extreme cold, snow, and ice of February 2021. Today we will be making some new memories I think.

As I look out the window of my home office this morning I see fog, as dewpoints and temperatures have both settled in the mid-40s this morning. After a mild start, we’re going to see temperatures climb to nearly 60 degrees. Then, this afternoon, one of strongest cold fronts I’ve observed in my lifetime is going to whip into Houston. This will, in very short order, drop air temperatures by 30 degrees. When you factor in strong winds, it will feel about 60 degrees colder tonight if you step outside. Not that I would recommend it.

I also want to say a word about forecasting. There are some things we still can’t do very well at Space City Weather. For example, if there’s a 50 percent chance of rain on any given day, I can’t absolutely tell you whether (or not) it will rain at your house. But in terms of large pressure patterns, that span thousands of miles across the globe, our best forecast models are starting to get pretty good. Don’t believe me? Here’s what I wrote ten days ago about the weather for today, December 22.

There is a fairly strong signal in the models for an even deeper burst of colder air toward the middle or latter half of next week. This could push overnight temperatures below freezing—perhaps even into the 20s—by around December 22 or so. This really is at the edge of our reliable forecasting capability, so it remains speculative. But my sense is that the days leading up to Christmas are going to be quite cold, and possibly the holiday itself. How cold? I’d love to be able to tell you that, but I can’t. However, I do think we’re looking at lows probably between 25 and 40 degrees, so you can expect Jack Frost to be nipping at your nose.

Space City Weather, Dec. 12, 2022

I’m not going to take credit for that, but I will say that part of good forecasting is understanding when you should lend credence to weather models, and when to consider something as chaff. That is some of the value we try to bring to you, helping to understand what is real about upcoming weather, and what is fluff. The cold tonight, by the way, is very real.

Thursday

As mentioned, we’re seeing some fog this morning, but that should dissipate with sunrise or shortly thereafter. The only real change in our ongoing forecast for the front is that its timing has sped up a little bit. If you’re living in College Station I’d expect its passage by around Noon, and for it to push into the Houston metro area between 1 to 3 pm, and reach the coast by around 5 pm CT. I can’t rule out any precipitation with 100 percent certainty, but anything that falls will be light, and may not make it all the way to the ground.

The immediate changes with the front will be sustained north-northwesterly winds at about 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. By around sunset most of the metro area will already be experiencing freezing temperatures, with air temperatures dropping into the 20s by this evening. If you’re out and about after 9 or 10 pm, be prepared for apparent temperatures in the single digits. To the extent we have electricity concerns, at this moment our largest worry is brief outages due to strong winds affecting poles and lines. Otherwise, we expect the Texas power grid to be able to accommodate demand over the next few days.

Friday

How low will temperatures go on Friday morning? Some of this will depend on the extent of winds and mixing overnight, but it’s a safe bet to expect lows in the 15 to 20 degree range for areas inland of Interstate 10, including locations north and west of Houston. The city itself will likely see lows between 17 and 22 degrees, with coastal areas between 20 and 25 degrees.

Friday will be sunny, with continued gusty northerly winds, and high temperatures briefly nearing or reaching the freezing level. Lows will drop again on Friday night into the low 20s for much of the area, with local temperatures perhaps 2 to 5 degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday

Christmas Eve should see highs near 40 degrees, with sunny skies. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-20s.

Christmas Day

Another sunny day, likely with highs in the mid-40s. A light freeze is possible on Christmas night.

Next week

There remains some uncertainty about the early part of next week, and an additional front possibly moving through. But it seems that we’ll be solidly into a warming trend by Wednesday, with highs bound for the 70s. It looks like rain chances may start to increase toward the end of next week, and we may be looking at a slightly wet period heading into New Year’s Eve. But for now the details on that are just too fuzzy.

Next update

We’ll have our next update for you this evening, after the front’s passage, to refresh our expectations for overnight low temperatures.

All things considered, Tuesday was a really pleasant day. The Sun emerged during the afternoon hours, and high temperatures climbed to nearly 60 degrees. We’ll remain relatively warm through Thursday afternoon, at which time a strong Arctic front will barrel into the Houston region and plunge temperatures well below freezing in the metro area. This will bring the region its coldest weather since February 2021, and calls for precautions for exposed pipes, tropical plants, and pets.

Wednesday

While we saw some sunshine on Tuesday, skies today will probably remain on the mostly cloudy side of things. This should limit high temperatures to the upper 50s. Winds will be light, out of the northeast. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-40s as winds shift to come from the south and southeast. This will herald the beginning of a short-lived warming trend.

Thursday

Aside from the potential for some patchy fog, Thursday morning looks fine. Highs may briefly climb into the low 60s ahead of the front, which probably will push through Harris County between 2 and 4 pm ET. Some very light precipitation is possibly with the front, but it will not be enough to stick to roads, so inclement driving conditions are not anticipated. Temperatures will drop swiftly after the front’s passage, with freezing conditions likely north and west of Houston by sunset, and temperatures dropping into the upper 20s by 8 to 10 pm. Winds will be very gusty, out of the north at up to 35 mph. This will make for extremely unpleasant conditions outside Thursday night and Friday morning, when apparent temperatures drop into the single digits.

Friday

This will be the coldest morning of the year in Houston, Texas. But how cold? That’s the question. We’re confident in clear skies, which are ideal for radiational cooling. However, mixing from the gusty winds will complicate matters. That said, I think lows will bottom out from 15 to 20 degrees north of Interstate 10, from 17 to 23 degrees south of Interstate 10 in Harris and Fort Bend counties, and from 20 to 25 degrees in coastal counties, including Galveston. Friday will be sunny, with still very cold with a stiff northerly breeze. Highs likely will briefly climb above freezing during the daytime for most of the region, but we can expect another very cold night, with lows only 2 to 5 degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday

Christmas Eve looks sunny, with high temperatures of around 40 degrees. It will be another cold night, however, with lows dropping into the mid-20s.

Sunday

Christmas Day should be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-40s. Dare I say that might feel almost balmy? OK, probably not. A light freeze is possible on Sunday night for areas away from the coast.

Next week

Monday will see an ongoing warming trend, but after that there is some question about whether a reinforcing cold front moves into the area. If it does, this could keep the region on the cooler side of things—nights in the 30s?—through about Wednesday. By the second half of next week I expect us to see highs in the 70s. A weak front may arrive ahead of New Year’s Eve, bringing some rain, but that’s at the edge of our ability to predict weather.

Good morning. We are now a little more than two days out from an Arctic blast that will bring the Houston region its coldest weather since a deep freeze in February 2021. If you’ll recall, that freeze prompted widespread power outages across the metro area as power plants were taken offline due to improper winterization. For a lot of people, this was miserable. For a more than a few people, it was deadly.

This loss of power magnified a cold weather event that was already tremendously destructive to pipes and plants. State officials say they have addressed these winterization concerns at power plants, and lacking sufficient expertise we are taking them at their word. What we can say is that the magnitude of this Arctic air likely to be similar to February 2021, although not quite as deep or prolonged. It will provide a meaningful test of whether the state’s electric grid has, in fact, been hardened. We also do not anticipate in any snow, sleet, or freezing rain to complicate travels on area roadways.

The image below compares the hour-by-hour temperatures observed during the February 2021 freeze (blue line) with the current forecast for temperatures (white line) at Bush Intercontinental Airport from the National Weather Service.

Tuesday

There has not been much change to our overall thinking when it comes to the forecast. We will see mostly cloudy skies today, with highs in the mid-50s and modest northerly winds. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Wednesday

Conditions will be a lot like Tuesday, with similar highs. The only meaningful change is that winds will shift to come from the southeast by Wednesday night, with lows dropping into the upper 40s.

Thursday

The first half of Thursday will see a decent warmup, as the onshore flow starts to bring a southerly flow. Areas south of Interstate 10 may even briefly reach 70 degrees before the front barrels through during the afternoon and early evening hours. While we can’t rule out a few light showers, we don’t expect any impactful precipitation. We’re still looking at sharp temperature drops in the immediate aftermath of the front’s passage, and gusty winds to 35 or 40 mph. Conditions overnight into Friday morning will be extremely unpleasant.

Friday

Low temperatures will bottom out on Friday morning. How cold? There’s still some wiggle room on the details, but lows will likely reach 15 to 20 degrees inland of Interstate 10, with slightly warmer conditions in the metro area of 17 to 22 degrees, and lows in the low- to mid-20s closer to the coast. Although skies will be mostly sunny on Friday, highs will only warm to near freezing briefly, with blustery winds throughout the day. Overnight lows should be 2 to 5 degrees warmer on Friday night.

Saturday

Highs will climb to around 40 degrees on Christmas Eve, with mostly sunny skies. Travel for the holidays should be fine, with dry roadways. Lows on Saturday night will probably still drop into the mid-20s in Houston, with even colder conditions further inland.

Christmas Day

Look for mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low 40s on Christmas Day. Lows may drop to freezing, or just above, in Houston that night.

Next week

Expect a steady warming trend next week, with temperatures in the low 70s by Wednesday. After that? The crystal ball for New Years celebrations remains a bit hazy. Rain chances do appear low until late next week, at the earliest.

The forecast is now pretty well locked in for this week: We’ll see wet conditions today, followed by three cloudy and not too cold, not too hot days. Then on Thursday, likely during the afternoon or evening hours, temperatures are going to plunge as a very sharp front whips into the area and causes temperatures to plummet. Precautions for a hard freeze, including protecting exposed pipes, plants, pets, and people should be taken ahead of time.

Monday

A coastal low pressure system is helping to drive rain showers across the metro area this morning, and these will continue on and off throughout the day. These should be more nuisance showers than anything, as accumulations are likely to be fairly low, less than 1 inch for most areas. Otherwise, expect highs in the low 50s with mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions out of the east at 15 to 20 mph. Rains should mostly end by sunset as the system moves off to the east. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-40s.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly cloudy day. We will start off with a very slight chance of light rain and fog, but most people should stay dry. Otherwise, expect a high in the mid-50s, with chilly northerly winds gusting up to 20 mph out of the north. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Wednesday

Another cloudy and chilly day, with highs in the mid-50s.

Thursday

Skies should start to clear out some, and for areas closer the coast where there is sunshine, we could see high temperatures jump up into the 60s, or possibly even 70 degrees. But this will be a mirage, as a strong front will be dropping down toward Houston with very strong winds, and extremely dry and cold air. This front looks set to reach the metro area some time during the afternoon or early evening hours, after which time temperatures will drop 30 to 40 degrees within a few hours.

By around sunset, or shortly afterward, I expect much of Houston to be in the 20s, with wind chills making it feel much colder. (Winds will be gusting up to 40 mph, likely). Bottom line: you will not want to be outside on Thursday night. Lows for actual temperatures by Friday morning will likely drop into the upper teens for much of Houston. The very dry air should preclude the possibility of precipitation, which is a good thing as it should keep our area roadways dry during the hard freeze.

Friday

Although skies will be sunny on Friday, temperatures should remain in the mid- to upper 20s for much of Houston, with the coast possibly seeing a brief blip above freezing. Another hard freeze is likely on Friday night, with lows dropping into the low 20s for the Houston metro area. Area roadways, and those across much of the state, should be dry for Friday and much of the holiday weekend, easing travel concerns.

Saturday

We should see more sunshine on Saturday, and this should help drive area temperatures into the upper 30s to 40 degrees. However, lows on Saturday night still could drop into the mid-20s with the Arctic air mass hanging around.

Christmas Day

After a cold start, highs on Christmas Day should warm into the mid-40s with partly to mostly sunny skies. A light freeze is possible on Sunday night.

Next week

After the hard freeze, next week looks much warmer, with highs rebounding into the 60s during the early part of the week, and back into the 70s toward the end of the week. After today, rain chances look fairly low for awhile.

A message from our partner, Reliant

We’re glad to be a longtime supporter of Space City Weather and its mission to keep us informed about
seasonal weather – without the hype. With colder weather coming just in time for the holidays, Reliant
wants to share a few easy ways to prepare for dropping temperatures, so you can stay in control of your
electricity usage while staying warm.

With some simple preparation and by following these tips, you can keep your heating system from
working harder than it needs to and avoid unexpected winter electricity bills.

• Check your thermostat. If you have an electric heater, keeping your thermostat around 68
degrees can help you save energy. For every degree above 68, you can typically expect a 3-5%
increase in heating costs.
• Weatherstrip exterior doors and windows. With minimal effort and cost, you can seal out the
cold and save up to 10 percent on total energy costs.
• Let the sun in. If the sun is shining, open blinds and shades during the day and remove any solar
screens to naturally warm your home. Close them at night to help block out the chill.
• Close heat escape routes. Keep the chimney damper closed when not in use and be mindful of
how often you’re opening entry doors and using bathroom or utility room ventilation fans, as
heat can escape through these outlets.
• Get a programmable thermostat, like the Google Nest. This can help you save up to 12 percent on
heating costs without lifting a finger.
• Get an annual heater tune-up. Make sure your air filters and furnace or heat pump are clean
and in good working order so that your system can run as efficiently as it should.
• Protect your pipes. Shut off exterior faucets, drain water from outdoor pipes and insulate them
if a hard freeze is expected (28 degrees or lower for an extended period of time) to prevent
them from bursting.

For more ways to get your home and vehicle ready for the cold and additional tips to lower your winter
electricity bill, download the Reliant Winter Prep checklist and visit Reliant.com/WinterTips. As always,
we’re available 24/7 via phone at 1-866-222-7100 and online chat to support customers. Happy
holidays!