Good morning. Muggier weather will briefly return on Thursday before a cold front pushes into Houston on Friday morning. This frontal passage will bring some fairly heavy rainfall to the region from about midnight Thursday through noon Friday, before much cooler air arrives for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday should be brilliantly fall-like.
Thursday
Breezy conditions today will help pull moisture into the region, but we should still see partly sunny skies this morning. (A coastal flood advisory is in effect due to the pronounced onshore flow). High temperatures will likely get into the low 80s, limited later this afternoon by some developing clouds. Some scattered showers are possible later today, but for the most part any heavy rain should hold off until tonight, probably at least a couple of hours after sunset.
Thursday night through Friday morning
The cold front should reach College Station by around 10pm Thursday night, push into Houston a couple of hours after midnight, and move off the coast before sunrise. The combination of the front, ample Gulf moisture, and favorable dynamics in the upper atmosphere will help generate a broad line of showers and thunderstorms as the front pushes slowly to the southeast. Most parts of the Houston area will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rain between midnight and noon, although we can’t rule out few isolated areas—most likely in Liberty and Galveston counties—seeing up to 4 inches.
Friday
The threat of heavy rain will end by around noon, if not before for western areas of the region. The rest of Friday will be fairly chilly in the wake of the front, with mostly cloudy skies and cooler air limiting daytime temperatures to the low 60s. Gusty northeasterly winds will keep things fairly brisk outside. Lows Friday night will drop to around 50 degrees, as winds continue to blow.
Saturday and Sunday
What a fine pair of fall days these will be. Look for sunny skies both days, with high temperatures on Saturday around 70 degrees, and around 75 degrees on Sunday. Nights will be clear and cool, although Sunday night lows will recover to around 60 degrees for most of Houston.
Next week and Halloween
The forecast for next week is also becoming more clear—and the outlook calls for the coldest weather of the season. While the forecast models differ on the timing and the details, we can reasonably expect a strong cold front to arrive in Houston sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, bringing some additional rainfall. After this we anticipate some quite cold weather for the fall, with overnight lows in the 40s for most of the area, and possibly some 30s for northern and western regions of the metro area. We’ll have to firm up the details next week, but Halloween most likely will be clear and cool—so consider those costumes carefully.
Loving the forecast. Great weather coming for a fire.
Eric…since you didn’t mention that pesky yellow X in the Bay of Campeche I ain’t gonna let it bug me…looking forward to NRG opening the roof for Sunday’s Texan game…wishful thinking I suppose…
Eric – looking at the regional forecast, there appears to be a discrepancy in the forecast for Houston and Beaumont. Houston shows the front moving through early tomorrow and then the rain forecast significantly dropping through the day. Beaumont shows very high rain probabilities through Friday night (>70%). Any thoughts on what East Texas is going to see?
My daughter’s girl scout troop is planning to go camping north of Beaumont tomorrow night, thus the reason for my asking.
Opening day is the first Saturday in November. What’s the far out outlook?
Eric, Matt and everyone else. I am excited about the cool front but not excited about timing of showers. Is the rain going to include strong storms that bring lightning and thunder? I have to medicate one of my dogs when that happens. I want to be prepared. Thanks!
We have a coastal flood warning in Galveston. The tide has been so freaking high every day – flooded streets without it raining.