After tying or breaking records on Monday, more extreme heat is likely today in the Houston region

Good morning. Three of the region’s climate sites tied or broke high temperatures records on Monday:

  • College Station: 106° (tying previous record, 1893)
  • City of Houston: 103° (tying previous record, 1998)
  • Hobby Airport: 102° (breaking previous record, 101°, 1948)

Unfortunately, we can expect more extreme heat today with a high pressure system anchored solidly over the southern United States, and exerting its influence over Texas. Very high heat will, unfortunately, persist through the weekend and into next week. There are signs of subtle changes in our forecast, but the relentless heat we’ve seen since June is likely to relent onward for awhile.

At sunrise this morning temperatures were in the low 80s. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

Like Monday, this will be another very warm day, with highs likely exceeding 100 degrees across much of the region. A weak disturbance is going to try and make its way through the mid-levels of the atmosphere later this afternoon, and in concert with daytime heating may produce some isolated showers. It will have its work cut out with all the sinking air, so I’d peg rain chances at only about 10 percent this afternoon and early evening. So yeah—probably not. But maybe. Winds will be light, out of the southwest.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

More of the same, which is to say hot, sunny, and humid. Look for high temperature of 100 degrees for much of the area away from the coast. You know the drill.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend the aforementioned high pressure system will start easing to the west a bit. This may eventually provide a slight amount of relief, but it’s going to be slow in coming. So we can probably expect highs in the vicinity of 100 degrees again this weekend, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain on Saturday, increasing to 20 percent on Sunday

More extreme heat is likely next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Next week

Houston’s torrid summer continues next week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Rain chances may tick up a bit, but at this point I don’t think we’re looking at anything higher than 20 or 30 percent daily odds. I know this is brutal to read, and believe me, it’s difficult to write.

61 thoughts on “After tying or breaking records on Monday, more extreme heat is likely today in the Houston region”

  1. I noticed an unhinged individual on the NWS page testerday, stating that “last year was hotter”. I remember last year well, so I know she isn’t correct, but are there any recent comparable time periods fit both intensity and duration of this heat?

      • 2011 was *way worse than this current year. Down here around Corpus, we were already having 95+ degree days by Early April that year. Which is well above normal that early in the year here too.

    • Jeff: to date, 2022 was hotter than 2023. Last May was second hottest, and June and July were both the hottest on record. July 2023 was the second hottest July. June 2023 was the sixth hottest June. Last August cooled down and we got a lot of rain. We’ll see how this month shapes up.

      • I find it very hard to believe that last July was hotter than this year’s. It has reached 100 at my house I believe every day last month except for 4 days or so.

    • Actually last year was hotter, and started out much earlier. This year, you may recall, had a mild spring time from March until the first week or two of June. The spring time this year had a lot of rain, but last year, it was drier than normal from April until sometime in August.

  2. You know, about two years ago I had to stop watching the morning and evening local news because it was nothing but stories about murders, shootings, armed robberies, and all the political corruption around here. Too depressing.

    This morning, I realized I probably need to stop watching the TV weather as well – it’s too depressing.

    I’ll just take my lumps with a 60 second scan of SCW. Just to make sure we’re not getting hit by a Cat 5 anytime soon.

    • I’m the same way: I stopped watching any TV news because what do they peddle? Bad news – all the time. Who needs all that negativity? And, the TV weather? Nothing but hype.

      So, I just read SCW and look over “news” on websites to control intake. To quote Voltaire from “Candide”: one must cultivate one’s garden.

      Back on topic: I’m counting down the days that August is gone.

  3. Does this foretell anything for our hurricane season? I mean, there are only so many “once in a lifetime” experiences a person can handle. Should Katy start packing now or…?

    • The high that’s keeping us hot keeps the lows away. When that finally shifts the Gulf will be quite warm.

      • The Gulf is already warm. Warmer than usual. So is the tropical Atlantic. True, the high in place will keep any tropical mischief away from the region, but there also have been few tropical waves in the Caribbean or Gulf that have had a chance to develop.

        • Until the high leaves tropical waves don’t have the conditions to develop in the Gulf.

          • There’s aren’t much waves to begin with even in the Atlantic. El Nino kills it all.

          • Yeah, the desert SW high doesn’t influence waves that form down near the Bay of Campeche/Yucatan. It’s more the westerly shear from a burgeoning El Nino influencing that.

  4. Sorry, but ‘relent onward’ doesn’t make sense. Thank you again for your forecast discussion, however bleak.

  5. Is this the hottest summer in recent years in Houston? This seems really bad over the last ten years we’ve lived here

    • It’s hot in a lot of places, I’m at 7000 feet in the Rockies and it’s been in the 90’s for weeks.

        • Ugh! My dog that likes to be outside has to be shoved out the door to eat and do her business and she is at the door right away.

        • Exactly this. The thinner air and less humidity makes the air feel significantly cooler. When the sun goes down they can open the windows and get relief. We down here have to wait until late September to get teased. Last night at 10PM it was still in the 90’s out.

    • I came here from SLC, Utah a long time ago (1998). The past two weeks up there (4320 to 5500 feet elevation) have been over 100 as well; as high as 106. Even very humid as well. It isn’t just here.

    • I’m out of here within six months of that retirement that is on the horizon. Somewhere 10 degrees cooler year-round, snow a couple of times a year – and no tropical weather!

  7. July 2023 ended up being the second hottest July in Houston’s recorded history at 87.8F. The #1 hottest July? You got it, 2022 at 88.0F. 1980 was #3 at 87.5F.

    Nothing to see here folks, just normal summer heat.

    • Agreed. Just a fairly normal Texas summer this year (except June) that happens a lot more years than most people on here think. Unless…, this continues into September. Which is normally when the hot/dry dome high starts to actually lose its grip. Especially here around the coast.

    • You really want every day during summer to be drought extreme heat weather? yeah sure stranger lol

    • I’d take tropical cyclones if it means no high pressure, heat, nor drought. A weak, but rain-making storm like Allison to minimize wind damage, preferably.

      • Don’t actually need tropical activity to get rain/storms going down around here on the TX coast region in the summertime. In El Niño summers, there’s usually more non-tropical influences aloft like the jet stream nearby, East of the heat dome high aloft to bring in more support for lift. Especially near the end of the summer.

        In some past EN years also, it can be a lot of rainfall in September around here without any tropical system, like a stalled front or upper-level trough nearby west/north of the region. Even if most of the summer has been mainly dry (like this year so far).

  9. “Hope springs eternal” Alexander Pope

    Glenn is back with his daily dose of hope. On August 13th, 1967 the low at IAH dropped to 64.9 F and the high was only 86! If it happened before it can happen again…

    • Given the strengthening El Niño right now, a (lower dew point) front through Texas in August is never out of the question as I’ve seen in the past 2 decades. Looking at the latest runs tonight of the GFS and CFS models, they want to bring a front all the way down to Corpus around the 17th. Nothing to get hyped about as they just started showing that tonight. But, something in the realm of possibility. Which would likely bring much better rain potential with it.

  10. 2011 is a 4 digit obscenity around here.
    In August of that year we had 100+ degree temps 30 out of 31 days. Will this summer try to take the championship belt from 2011?
    Maybe, maybe not. I think you will agree that this summer is now one of the made men of miserable summers.

  11. It was 97.1 degrees last night at 8:15PM when we started our walk. That is quite simply unbelievable. We have been going on evening walks at the same time since we bought this house in 2000, and generally we could count on the temp being below 90 degrees at 8:15PM, even in the dead of summer. I don’t mind 100 degrees in the afternoon–this is not particularly abnormal. But when it doesn’t cool down at night, this is unheard of.

  12. When your outside dog does not want to be outside, it tells you something. After waiting until 9:00 Pm to plant a new crepe myrtle, I dunk my head in the above ground pool.

    • I sincerely hope you’re not forcing your “outside dog” to stay outside in this heat. Dogs are at much higher risk for heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses than humans, so if it’s too hot for you, it’s WAY too hot for your dog. There’s a special place in hell for those who keep their pets outside in this kind of weather.

  13. I’m grateful to be in a place of privilege where I work inside and can afford the electricity to cool my home and the water to supplement my yard and plants. I feel for the folks who can’t do those things. I’ll take the positive aspect of the heat that it’s keeping hurricanes at bay because they are so disruptive and destructive for everyone, and re: above about privilege, unrecoverable for many in our community, some of whom still haven’t gotten back to where they were before Harvey.

    • You can certainly thank the hot/dry dome subtropical high out west for that. It’s typically stronger in official El Niño summers, so it minimizes the hurricane risk here on the TX coast to virtually nothing the whole season.

  14. Another indicator of the effect the changing climate is having is the dearth of monarch butterflies this year. In previous years we have always had to remove caterpillars from shredded milkweed after they had stripped them to transport them to neighbors yards that still had plants, last year though we only had a few monarchs come through but this year, none at all.

    • I have had monarch butterflies at my house, where it has been above 100 nearly every day last month. The problem is probably that your yard or neighborhood is not as friendly to wildlife (i.e. organic).

  15. “College Station: 106° (tying previous record, 1893” So we had “Global Warming or Climate Change” back in 1893? Who knew??? LOL

    • Honestly, I don’t know where they were taking that temperature. Where I was in College Station it barely got to 103 (about 15 minutes). Which is not great, but….

    • I know and just think that was before the modern urban heat island effect. College station had 21 100+ degree days that Summer with the hottest being 107 on August 27th 1893. Hellish Summers occurred from time to time in Texas even back then.

  16. It is summer time in TX… it’s hot.
    I live here so I do not have to put up with cold and snow in the winter time.
    Been there and done that!

  17. Does the Houston office of the NWS still keep records for degree days (cooling) base 65degrees that the public can access? Anybody know where to find this on a monthly chart? Thanks!

    • Go to the NWS HGX site -> Climate -> NOWData -> Daily Almanac:
      DAILY ALMANAC – temperature (degrees F), precipitation, snowfall, snow depth (inches) and degree day (base 65) data for the requested day, month-to-date and year-to-date. Results are provided for the requested year, the normals and period-of-record extreme values. Comparisons to other years can also be requested.

  18. Yeah, I’m no fan of this heat. But I’ll take it all day every day until mid-September over another Harvey. This is bad, but Harvey was worse. Much, much, much worse.

  20. Saw on the CFSv2 model a few minutes ago on pivotalweather.com that it wants to spin a little system up near the TX coast around the 20th.

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