Eric Berger

Good morning. After the healthy amounts of rainfall the region received on Thursday and Friday—most areas picked up 1 to 3 inches—I wanted to reset expectations for the remainder of the “wet” period that will last through Monday. We’re probably not looking at any significant flooding, but it should be another wet and dreary day. Matt and I also wanted to take the opportunity this morning to thank veterans who have served our country. Veterans Day may be the one day we say it, but we appreciate our freedom every day of the year.

Finally, I wanted to remind readers that we have just kicked off our annual fundraiser, which will last for a limited time only. You can visit our merch store to purchase items or simply make a donation. Thank you for the tremendous response so far!

Saturday and Sunday daytime

The radar is quiet this morning, and based on the latest trends, I more or less expect that to continue for the remainder of today. Coastal areas, such as Galveston and Brazoria counties, are likely to see some intermittent, light to moderate showers. So rain chances for areas inland of Interstate 10 are probably 20 percent or less, with 40 percent or so for areas closer to the water. High temperatures on Saturday will reach about 60 degrees. Expect overnight lows to drop into the mid-50s. Sunday will probably be similar in terms of precipitation coverage, but highs should reach the mid-60s.

Sunday night and Monday

Rain chances will be on the increase beginning Sunday evening through Monday, as a low pressure system pushes into the area. There is not great consistency in the models here, but there are hints that some areas—again, most likely along or south of Interstate 10—could see some significant accumulations. Widespread rain totals may be around 1 to 2 inches, but some locations may pick up 3 to 5 inches by Tuesday morning. The bottom line is that you should plan for a wet Monday, especially closer to the coast. How disruptive might this be? It’s impossible to say for sure. We’re just starting to get into the realm of high-resolution models, so we should be able to soon tighten up this forecast. We will have an update on Sunday, if needed.

Next week

Rain chances start to fall off by Tuesday, and we’ll begin to see some sunshine on Wednesday. Highs are likely to remain in the 60s or 70s next week, with nights generally in the 50s.

Good morning! Before jumping into the forecast we want to say a word about our annual fundraiser, which kicks off today. This is your chance to support Space City Weather, and the efforts of Eric, Matt, and the rest of the crew at the website. Your purchases and donations directly support our work, the operation and maintenance of the website, our app and its regular updates, and more. Because of your generous support we are able to offer Space City Weather for free, for everyone, without any nonsense such as tracking or intrusive advertising or clickbait.

This year we’re doing things a little differently. We’ve set up a store where you can purchase any number of different items and combine them for a single shipping charge. You can also simply donate money, if you like, which is greatly appreciated. We have three different t-shirt designs this year: The lightning shirt is something I’ve wanted to do since the heat wave of 2011, a riff on a rock concert t-shirt; The quadrant plays off our preference for the Astrodome to a heat dome; and for the first time since 2016, we’re offering the original design of our first t-shirt. It ain’t fancy, but it’s the classic.

So if you’re interested in supporting us, for a very limited time only, please visit our 2023 merch store. Thank you to all our supporters!

On to the weather!

Today & Saturday

The apt word for this forecast is “dreary.” No, it is not likely to rain the entirety of today and tomorrow. But there will be periods of light rain, drizzle, or even steady rain mixed in with drier, overcast stretches. The best chance of some heavier rain would probably occur tomorrow south of I-10. Temperatures won’t go very far on either day. Temperatures won’t go anywhere today, and if anything we’ll see a slight drop in temperatures through the 60s and into the 50s. These temps will probably stay there most of tomorrow as well. If you’ve been longing for a couple gray days with chilly, damp weather, well, you’re in luck!

Sunday

The back part of the weekend is probably the best chance for a bit of a respite from rain. I do still think there will be showers or light rain pockets around on Sunday. Rain may pick up in coverage and intensity from southwest to northeast in the evening hours. I’m banking on the first half of the day to be our winner of the weekend, which isn’t saying much. it will still be in the low to mid-60s at best with clouds.

Monday

We start next week on a stormy note. A developing low pressure system in the Gulf is likely to fling a good bit of rain and a chance of thunderstorms our way Monday. Some of the rain could be heavy, especially south of I-10. We aren’t necessarily expecting anything serious on Monday, but I do think we should keep an eye on things for isolated severe storms or localized flooding.

Coastal conditions will be notable Monday with gusty winds as high as 30 to 40 mph in gusts possible, in addition to some rough seas. Monday’s highs will be in the low-60s, with lows again in the 50s.

Rest of next week

We should transition out of this pattern Tuesday, with only slight rain chances and decreasing clouds. Highs will be in the 60s again. We warm up Wednesday through Friday with temperatures rebounding into the 70s and lows back into the 60s. Our next cold front is probably arriving sometime next weekend. Details on what comes with that are too soon to say right now.

Good morning. Houston has experienced very warm (for November) temperatures this week, but that will come to an end with a cool front’s passage later this afternoon and evening. This front will lead to a wet and gray weekend, with temperatures in the vicinity of 60 degrees into the middle of next week. After all the sunshine it will be a bit dreary, I must say, but there are two good things to say about the pattern change. One, temperatures will feel more like November. And two, much of the region could really use the rainfall.

Thursday

Temperatures today are likely to climb into the low-80s ahead of the frontal passage, but mostly cloudy skies should limit them from going much higher. There may be some very scattered showers today ahead of the front, but the better rain chances will come late this afternoon, evening, and overnight as the front slogs through. This will not be a classic front that blasts into Houston out of the north with colder and drier air immediately, rather the cooler air will percolate into the region gradually overnight and on Friday. So don’t expect an immediate change in the air mass. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s.

As for rain, most of the area will see between 0.25 and 1 inch overnight and into Friday morning, with the usual potential for some areas to see higher bullseyes. So don’t expect anything extreme in terms of rainfall, but nearly all of us should at least see a bit of a soaking.

Friday

This will be a gray, damp, and chilly day. Rain chances are about 60 percent, with high temperatures gradually dropping during the daytime as the air mass changes. Highs will be in the low 60s for most of the day, with lows falling into the 50s overnight.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same. The cold front is going to move into the Gulf of Mexico and then should more or less stall. This will help funnel disturbances into the area this weekend that should support high rain chances, particularly on Saturday, and particularly closer to the coast. These will generally be on-again, off-again showers, so if you have outdoor plans this weekend they’re in serious doubt, especially for locations south of Interstate 10. Skies should be mostly cloudy regardless, with highs of around 60 degrees, and lows in the upper 50s. I don’t have any serious flooding concerns, but we probably are looking at accumulations in some locations of 2 to 4 inches by the end of the weekend.

Next week

Rain chances slacken a bit early next week, but I’d still peg them at 50 percent or so daily through Tuesday for areas closer to the coast (lesser inland). This will help keep a limit on highs as well, likely in the low- to mid-60s. We probably will start to warm up some headed into next weekend, perhaps into the mid- to upper-70s. I don’t have a lot of confidence after that, which means that at this point I don’t have much intelligible to say about the Thanksgiving forecast. It’s still two weeks away, after all, and only a turkey would try to make such a prediction.

Good morning. The Houston region faces three more warm days before a significant change in our pattern brings improved rain chances and colder air. We’re not looking at very dry air and sharply cold nights, as the region experienced a week ago. But rather we’re going to see mostly cloudy weather for awhile, with days in the 60s, lows in the 50s, and healthy rain chances. We’ll begin to warm back up by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

Tuesday

Before that we’re going to see some more weather in the mid-80s, with humid air. Highs today will generally be in the mid-80s, with mostly sunny skies, and southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph. Low temperatures tonight may briefly drop into the upper 60s in Houston, but there won’t be much (if any) chill in the air. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of very light showers.

Wednesday

Did you like Tuesday’s weather? Good. Because Wednesday is going to be basically the same.

Thursday

This day will begin similarly to Tuesday and Wednesday, but change will quite literally be in the air. High temperatures probably will be a couple of degrees cooler due to some more cloud cover. Some slight rain chances will start to pick up during the afternoon and evening hours, ahead of, and along with a front moving into the region. The front probably will push into Houston during the overnight hours and off the coast by Friday morning.

Friday

This will be a gray and cooler day, with highs in the 60s. So it won’t be super cold, but it will be chilly with on and off precipitation. In terms of accumulations, I’m still not confident, but I would bet that most of the area picks up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain, with the usual possibility of outliers. So at this point I don’t really have flooding concerns. Accumulations will likely be higher to the west of Houston than to the east. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

My confidence in the weekend forecast also remains fairly low. There could be a break in showers on Saturday, Veteran’s Day, for inland areas away from the coast. The challenge for the forecast is that the front and its associated moisture are unlikely to push all that far into the Gulf of Mexico, so we’re going to see the potential for lingering showers this weekend, and next week. The bottom line is that we’re looking at a pair of cloudy days in the 60s this weekend, with a healthy chance of light to moderate rainfall each day. At this point I’d say Sunday has a slightly better chance of rain than Saturday. We’ll see.

Next week

This gray and wet pattern will persist into early next week, likely at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. So that means more partly to mostly cloudy skies and ongoing highs in the 60s or so. Total rainfall accumulations (see map above) are going to add up over the the next week, likely with 1 to 4 inches for most of the metro area.

We’re probably going to transition to a somewhat sunnier and warmer pattern for the second half of the week. Think highs in the 70s, with lower rain chances. This warming trend will continue into next weekend, at which point another front is likely in the cards. But whether that comes on Saturday, Sunday, or Monday, I cannot say.