Eric Berger

Sunday was blazing hot as upper-level high pressure continued to bake Texas. Nearly all meteorological sites across the region broke daily high records, in some cases smashing them. The city’s “official” measuring station, presently located at Bush Intercontinental Airport, reached 108°. This is one degree short of the city’ all-time hottest temperature across nearly 150 years of records, 109 degrees. This mark was recorded on August 27, 2011. Here are some other results:

• Houston-IAH: 108° (1 degree short of all-time high, reached four other times)
• Houston-Hobby: 107° (broke daily record high of 101°, set in 1999)
• Galveston: 97° (tied record daily high from 1995)
• College Station: 112° (tied all-time record high, set Sept. 4, 2000)
• Sugar Land: 107° (broke daily record high of 101°, set in 2018)
• Tomball: 110° (broke daily record high of 101°, set in 1999)

Our eyes now turn to the Gulf, where a tropical disturbance has a decent chance of flaring into a tropical depression or storm today, before moving into South Texas early on Tuesday. I fear we will be looking longingly at the system, because its winds and waves won’t be severe, but its rains definitely beneficial. The best accumulations will all be south of Corpus Christi, although the southern Houston area may see some stray showers today and tomorrow. See below for much more information about the Gulf disturbance.

Monday

Today is going to be very hot again, although temperatures probably will be a few degrees lower than Sunday’s exceptional highs. Skies will be mostly sunny this morning, but we may see some clouds developing today. In response to the tropical system, our winds will become more easterly, perhaps gusting to 20 mph later today. These winds will exacerbate fire conditions, and a red flag warning is in effect for the combination of strong winds and high temperatures.

Will it rain today? Probably not. Some isolated areas probably will see a decent soaking, but all of the organized shower activity should be far to the south of the Greater Houston region. Rain chances are probably on the order 20 percent today and tonight for coastal Houston, and closer to 0 percent north of Interstate 10.

Tuesday

Rain chances will peak on Tuesday, at perhaps to 30 or 40 percent south of Interstate 10, and maybe 20 percent north of the freeway. This day should also be slightly cooler, with highs in the 90s for areas closer to the coast. It’s still going to be hot, though. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

Wednesday

A hot day, with highs in the low 100s for much of the region and mostly sunny skies. Rain chances? They’re long gone.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Unfortunately this period looks to be extremely hot, with high pressure building more directly over Texas. We’re talking highs in the low- to mid-100s, so akin to what the region experienced this past weekend. Rain chances will be on the order of about 10 percent each day.

Is there any relief at all in sight?

If you’re wondering about cool fronts and plentiful rainfall, alas, the answer is no. However at this point the ridge of high pressure does look to back off some next week, and that should take some of the top end off of the high temperatures. It should also allow rain chances to creep back up a little bit. We’ll see. This summer has been brutal, and will continue to be for some time.

All about the Gulf disturbance

Now let’s talk about the Gulf of Mexico. This portion of today’s post comes via The Eyewall, our companion website where you can find comprehensive coverage of hurricanes. This morning, we have seen no real progress toward better organization overnight from the tropical wave, Invest 91L, in the eastern Gulf.

Just as a quick reminder: Invests are really just meteorological classifications given to tropical disturbances so extra data can be compiled about them; literally “an area of investigation.” There’s no strict definition, but they go from 90 to 99 and then recycle again. In the Atlantic we use “L” as an identifying abbreviation. The East Pacific is “E,” West Pacific “W,” etc.

Anyway, 91L has a broad circulation this morning but does not appear to be tightening up any as of yet. The good news is that this system only has about 24 hours left over water before it comes ashore in South Texas. The most likely outcome at this point is an approach just south of Corpus Christi or north of Brownsville.

Given that we have 24 hours left and given how this thing looks on satellite, my hunch is that if we see this upgraded we may skip the formalities and go right to a tropical storm. The next name on the list would be Harold. At worst, this would probably become a low-end tropical storm (45 to 55 mph maximum sustained winds, mostly in heavier rain bands and over water).

More importantly, this will be a rainmaker for Texas. The entire state desperately needs rain.

East Texas and the upper Texas coast are in extreme drought, with pockets of exceptional drought in Hill Country northwest of San Antonio. A quick moving tropical system would be virtually 100 percent positive in Texas right now. This will help. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches with higher amounts are expected for South Texas, mainly south of Corpus Christi into the Rio Grande Valley and west toward Laredo. Northern Mexico will also receive healthy rains from this.

While this will not end drought for South Texas, it will greatly help. Unfortunately, the hardest hit parts of the state are expecting little to no rain this week, meaning drought and fire danger will worsen.

Happy Sunday, everyone. This weekend’s tropics update is a copy of what appeared on our sister hurricane site, The Eyewall, earlier today. It provides a full information on Hilary, the Gulf system, and all of the other activity ongoing in the Atlantic basin.

In regard to Houston’s forecast in particular, as we forecast on Friday, the region will be lucky to see rains from the Gulf disturbance, as it still appears likely to track too far south to bring much precipitation here. I wish it were otherwise.

One-sentence summary

Tropical Storm Hilary is expected to impact the Desert Southwest today with extremely heavy rain and a high risk of significant flooding, while South Texas eyes beneficial rains from a tropical wave this week, one of several Atlantic disturbances right now.

Hilary: Still likely to bring severe rain & flooding to the desert

The majority of the forecast is on track, with a few noteworthy changes today, mainly in the form of higher wind forecasts in southeast California, Nevada, and southwest Arizona. Hilary is approaching the coast of Baja this morning, mostly as expected.

Very little has broadly changed in terms of the track, but a few nuances lead to a little more wind for the Southwest U.S. Hilary should come north as a tropical storm into California, transitioning to a depression near Death Valley, and then getting absorbed into the U.S. weather pattern over Nevada.

Let’s walk through impacts again today.

Coastal SoCal Metros (Santa Barbara-Ventura-LA-OC-San Diego)

For most in these areas, Hilary will be a considerable inconvenience. However, there will be issues with flooding in spots. There will also be concerns about mudslides and debris flows in the foothills and near burn scars. While the majority of valley and coastal locations will see 1 to 3 inches of rain, that will be enough to cause flash flooding of roads, and travel later today may become a little difficult. Urban flooding is always a concern when you get rain rates of an inch an hour possible, which may be what occurs in spots.

Flood watches are posted, and honestly if you don’t need to be out later today, it’s best to stay put.

While winds may not look dramatic on the map above (with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts on the coast), there will be stronger winds in spots and likely some power outages.

Conditions from Santa Barbara through San Diego will improve tomorrow.

Inland SoCal Metro Valleys and Mountains

The impacts inland from the coast will vary. North and east-facing mountain slopes will likely see the heaviest rainfall with 3 to 10 inches likely and higher amounts not out of the question. Rate rates will be intense, and in those particular mountains, we may see mudslides, rock slides, and the potential for significant, rapid-onset flooding. This will include the mountains east of San Diego, the north side of the San Gabriels, San Bernardinos, and Ventura County mountains. The Antelope Valley north of LA may be very susceptible to flooding due to rain in the mountains upstream.

Flash flooding or debris flows will be likely in some of the foothills and mountains, and travel, particularly into the mountains or across the Antelope Valley will be discouraged later today.

Winds will mimic patterns that we usually see in these regions during Santa Ana wind events, with gusts locally up to 50, 60, or 70 mph possible. This isn’t a Santa Ana, but because the wind direction of an approaching tropical storm is similar to how winds setup in Santa Anas, you’ll get that pattern. Prepare for power outages in some of these areas.

California Deserts

As noted above, the Antelope Valley will be particularly susceptible to heavy rainfall, but the Mojave Desert as a whole will be as well. That high risk from the NWS Weather Prediction Center remains in effect today, as it has since a few days ago. Confidence is high in major, damaging flooding impacts in these areas, which may see the equivalent of a year or more worth of rain today. Areas from the Imperial Valley and Salton Sea north to Death Valley are at highest risk for poor outcomes today. Locally, mountain peaks will enhance rainfall some, including the Panamints near Death Valley. Travel is discouraged today in the deserts and between the coast and interior.

Winds will also be an issue here, with 40 to 60 mph gusts widespread and risk for higher in spots. Prepare for power outages in these areas.

Arizona

Conditions tend to lessen some in Arizona, but there will still be issues with flooding and strong winds in the western part of the state.

Rain totals were dropped a good bit near Yuma today, as it appears a “dry slot,” or an area of dry air in between rainy bands may set up near Yuma.

Nevada

For Las Vegas, the threat of flash flooding is real, even if the highest risks are to the west of there. Urbanized desert is especially susceptible to flooding, so if a cell or band of heavy rain just happens to set up over the Las Vegas Valley, you will have a recipe for significant urban flooding. Be aware and prepared today in Vegas.

The heaviest rain may occur near Mount Charleston. As the NWS in Las Vegas noted this morning, the Nevada 24 hour state rainfall record previously occurred there. The 7.78 inch total on Mt. Charleston may get challenged today.

In addition to the rain, strong winds will be an issue here as well and power outages are possible in southern Nevada.

Conditions should improve from south to north tomorrow.

Lots of Atlantic nuisance and noise

Shifting into the Atlantic basin now. The NHC’s outlook map looks more like a leaked flag football playbook or something.

Right out of the gate, let me just say that none of these systems look particularly menacing or troublesome for any areas. Busy as it may be, we’ll call this a nuisance setup. Let’s walk through these things.

Gulf wave: A rainmaker in South Texas

The tropical wave we’ve been talking about for several days is finally in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and based on satellite imagery, it is not terrible looking. Organized, no, but vigorous, yes.

This will continue due west across the Gulf and make it into Texas by Tuesday morning. This has a 50/50 shot of becoming a depression or low-end tropical storm as it approaches Texas, but it is unlikely to surpass that level. The main impact from this system will be rainfall in Texas, a needed commodity. Sadly, for Houston and drought-stricken east Texas, this will do next to nothing. However, South Texas needs the rain too, and they will get some as this system moves in.

Look for about 1 to 3 inches of rain for areas south of Matagorda Bay and lesser amounts north of there, to near 0 rain for the I-10 corridor in Houston and SE Texas.

Invest 90L: May develop today, rain for Hispaniola, Bermuda in the future?

The next wave to discuss is Invest 90L, which is located in the southeast Caribbean. It is beginning to attempt to develop there, and there’s some chance this becomes a depression or even Tropical Storm Emily today.

If you look at the NHC map above, you can see how 90L’s potential development takes on an “L” shape. The good news is that 90L should be drawn up north and out to sea rather quickly. The bad news is that it could impact Hispaniola, particularly with heavy rainfall. Bermuda may also want to keep an eye on 90L’s progress over the coming days. We will watch this closely for those areas this week.

Tropical Depression 6: Heads for the exits today

Invest 99L turned into TD 6 yesterday, and it will degenerate back into a wave today. Thanks for joining us.

Invest 98L & Africa waves

We expect development of Invest 98L in the next day or so, at least to a depression, maybe a tropical storm. But it will stay out at sea. Subsequent waves off Africa will likely behave similarly in the coming days.

Well, this is not great news I’m afraid. On Thursday the US Drought Monitor upgraded much of the Houston area to “extreme drought” conditions, with the remainder of the region in a “severe” drought. All one needs to do is look around at the area’s brown grass, or the sagging leaves on trees, to know that it is really dry out there.

We had been holding out some hope that a tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend would provide some relief. Unfortunately, the models are now increasingly in alignment that a potent high pressure system over the central United States will push this Gulf disturbance far enough to the south that it will probably not bring widespread, meaningful rainfall to our region. This forecast, certainly, can change. But as of now I would set your expectations low.

Friday

Another very hot day for the region. Look for high temperatures in the low 100s, with ample humidity, sunny skies, and only a light southwest wind. Overnight lows will provide only a bit of relief, dropping down to around 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same with a high pressure system dominating our weather. Look for highs in the low- to mid 100s, which is to say that some inland locations could get up to 107 or 108 degrees for an hour or two during the afternoon. Yikes. For coastal areas, there is perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain on Sunday afternoon.

Next week

Our forecast for next week remains dependent on the track of the low pressure system that will be zipping westward across the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to near the Southern Texas coast by Tuesday, most likely as a tropical disturbance, but there is about a 30 percent chance of it becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm according to the National Hurricane Center. However, I would not fret about strong winds or waves. This system will be mostly beneficial, in the sense that it will bring a decent amount of rainfall to some parts of Texas.

For now, and again this remains subject to change, the preferred location for 2 to 6 inches of rainfall is Corpus Christi and the state’s Coastal Bend. North of Matagorda Bay, rain chances start to diminish, although coastal parts of the Houston area are still likely to see some modest showers. I would peg rain chances in Houston at about 50 percent on Tuesday, and some increased cloud cover may hold high temperatures to the mid-90s. However, at this time, it does look like we are going to miss out on significant drought relief. If this forecast changes over the weekend, we’ll definitely update you.

After a brief reprieve in temperatures, we can expect highs to jump back up into the low 100s later next week, with sunny and hot conditions heading into the weekend.

Tropics

The tropics are starting to really heat up, with Hurricane Hilary setting up to bring a potentially extreme rain and flooding event to parts of the deserts and/or mountains in California and Nevada; and increased activity expected in the Atlantic to end the month of August. You can find full details about all of this on our sister site, The Eyewall. For now, beyond the disturbance mentioned above, there are no other specific threats to the Gulf of Mexico.

Good morning. In the big picture, Houston’s overall forecast remains largely the same. After some lovely, drier air we’re back into high humidity and high heat through the weekend. By Monday, we’ll be watching the Gulf of Mexico with bated breath, to see whether a tropical system brings much needed rainfall to the Upper Texas coast. I think that’s still about a 50-50 proposition.

Before jumping into the forecast I want to answer a question I’ve received many times in recent weeks about this summer, which has seen record temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, alarmingly low levels of sea ice, and extreme heat around much of the world. NASA recently concluded that July 2023 is the planet’s hottest month in the reliable global temperature record, which dates back to 1880. The question I’m getting is, could this be caused by the large amount of water vapor injected into the upper atmosphere by the eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano in December 2021, in the Southern Pacific Ocean?

Typically, big volcanic eruptions send large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, which reflects sunlight and cools the climate. By contrast, the Hunga Tonga eruption also produced large amounts of water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas. So is this the culprit for extremely warm temperatures this year?

As always with climate, the answer is complex, and nuanced. However, the Berkeley Earth non-governmental organization recently published an analysis that I think captures several of the factors that led to this summer’s heating. Principally, there is human-caused global warming; but there are a number of other factors that have contributed this year, including a switch to El Niño, the Solar cycle, the Hunga Tonga eruption, and a reduction in marine fuel pollution that has led to clearer air. All of these factors, layered on top of global warming, have really goosed temperatures this year.

As the report notes, the effect of the Hunga Tonga eruption is probably relatively small, but it likely has added some warmth to the planet after injecting about 150 million tonnes of water vapor into the stratosphere. It will take a few years for this plume to dissipate. Please note that I realize that the mere mention of climate change gets some readers really upset. I’m sorry, but on a weather website it is occasionally necessary to mention that the planet is warming, and discuss potential causes. If you feel compelled to get nasty in the comments below, your IP address will be banned. Most readers have been polite in previous discussions, agreeing to disagree, and I appreciate that.

Now, on to the forecast.

Thursday

The dry air, sadly, is gone. And so we welcome back high temperatures in the low 100s, humid air, sunny skies, and light southerly winds. Nighttime lows are around 80 degrees. We all know the drill.

Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunny and hot, with high temperatures again of around 100 degrees, or perhaps a tick or two higher. There’s a slight chance of some rain on Sunday afternoon, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Next week

So what’s going to happen next week with that tropical wave? Unfortunately the global models remain divided about its outcome. The Global Forecast System, or GFS model, keeps the low to the south of the greater Houston area, along with much of its rainfall. The European model, however, brings the low much closer to our region, and delivers a healthy dose of rainfall during the middle of next week. I think both scenarios are plausible, so I don’t have confidence in making a forecast just yet. If we do get some cloudy, rainy days, it will knock high temperatures back into the 90s. Please clap.