In brief: In today’s post we provide the latest information on Invest 97L, which is meandering west toward Texas this morning. The primary threat is heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding, particularly east of Houston heading into midweek. We’ll be providing regular updates today and Tuesday.
Invest 97L
The tropical system has not significantly strengthened overnight, which is a good thing for coastal residents concerned about tropical storm force winds and a storm surge. (As of 7 am this morning, the National Hurricane Center still gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm). This tropical system, Invest 97L, still has about 30 hours before coming ashore in the middle of the day Tuesday, so it remains possible that a tropical depression or storm could form before landfall. Coastal areas from High Island up the Texas coast to Cameron, Louisiana, should prepare for the possibility of a landfalling tropical storm.
The bigger issue for most of us, including Houston, is the potential for heavy rainfall from this system. There is likely to be a band of higher rainfall totals the accompanies this system—perhaps on the order of 3 to 6 inches as it moves inland. Tropical rainfall like this has the potential to produce flash flooding.
Right now our best guess based upon 97L’s track is that this band of heavy rain falls just to the east of the Houston metro area, between here and Beaumont. But this could shift (closer to, or further from Houston), and we will want to pay attention over the next two days to see how this system evolves. The most likely period for heavy rainfall is from early Tuesday through Tuesday evening.
In Houston, right now, our expectation is for 0.5 to 2 inches of rain, with greater amounts along and east of Interstate 45. We do not anticipate impactful winds, but again we’ll need to monitor this for possible changes in track and intensity. We will have a post this afternoon, no later than 2 pm, to provide the latest forecast information.
Monday
Today will be business as usual in terms of the heat we’ve been experiencing of late, which is to say we can expect widespread high temperatures in the mid-90s in Houston, with highs in the upper 90s further inland. Scattered showers associated with Invest 97L will be possible to the east of Houston, but I’m skeptical that we’ll see too much activity within the metro area itself. Overall rain chances today are probably only about 20 or 30 percent, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be fairly light, from the east.
Tuesday
As noted above, Tuesday is when rain showers associated with the tropical system are most likely. While the details are still a bit uncertain, it appears that rain chances will start to increase during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday and peak during the middle of the day. Will everyone see rain? After a very dry August we’re all pretty desperate for precipitation. Chances are highest to the east of I-45, but at this point I do think a majority of the city and surrounding counties will see precipitation, although areas such as Katy and further west may well miss out. Highs on Tuesday may peak in the 80s for some locations due to showers and cloud cover.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
The rest of the week should see highs in the low 90s, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Although the threat of heavy rainfall should be gone, we’ll continue to see decent (30 to 50 percent, probably) shower chances each day along with the sea breeze. This should be fairly typical weather for early September.
Labor Day Weekend and beyond
We are going to see a continuation of this pattern into the holiday weekend, most likely. I think daily highs this weekend will be in the low- to mid-90s with partly to mostly sunny skies. Will it rain this weekend? We certainly cannot rule it out, but if we do see precipitation it likely will come in the form of a passing shower that moves through fairly quickly. We should start to get more confidence in the Labor Day weekend outlook after 97L passes on Tuesday.
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