Eric Berger

Be brave, my friends. After an exceptionally warm June—there is no question this month will smash Houston’s previous record for hottest June ever—we are approaching the crescendo of this heat wave. The next four days will all bring the possibility of 100-degree temperatures for the metro area, with baking sunshine, before a possible reprieve early next week.

Also, we’ve been asked a lot whether the record heat this June is predictive of abnormally warm conditions for the remainder of the summer. Matt has done some research on this, and will write about it tomorrow. The answer is hopeful.

Thursday

As expected, our region saw some scattered showers on Wednesday, and that likely will be the case today, although coverage should be more isolated. The main reason for less coverage is that high pressure is building again over the region and that will impair some passing atmospheric disturbances from getting too much traction. Rain chances appear best this afternoon along, and north, of Interstate 10. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies, with highs of around 100 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

These will be three baking hot days, with high temperatures of 100 degrees, or slightly higher, for nearly all of the metro area away from the coast. Skies will be sunny, and rain chances virtually non-existent. A more southwesterly flow, instead of winds directly off the Gulf of Mexico, should help with humidity levels a bit. Even so, there are a number of outdoor activities this weekend, including Pride celebrations in downtown Houston, during the middle of the day. We really urge you to take heat and sunshine precautions during the exceptionally hot weather this weekend.

Next week

We’re not promising any miracles next week, but things should finally change. A front of sorts should push into the region on Monday, helping to open our atmosphere up to a few passing disturbances. By later Monday or Tuesday this should lead to the formation of a few more clouds, and push daily rain chances up to 30 or 40 percent. In addition, high temperatures probably will drop back into the mid-90s, if not even lower. The details on this are still fuzzy, but the end of June will probably, finally, feel like what most of June should have felt like.

Tropics awakening?

Typically, during this time of year, wind shear runs high in a central Atlantic Ocean area called the “main development region” for tropical storms and hurricanes. This is the place where low pressure systems that move off of Africa during the summer can regularly form into tropical storms during the months of August and September. I say August and September, because wind shear is usually hostile to storm formation before then. (This is also why hurricane activity peaks during August and September).

However, as we’re seeing lower wind shear now in the main development region, it is possible we may start to see these “Cape Verde” storms coming off of Africa and developing earlier this year. To that end, the National Hurricane Center is watching development of a possible tropical wave there five to seven days from now. This is something to watch, but not worry about at this time.

You know the heat is getting to us when we resort to a gimmick like this. But with high pressure holding sway for our weather over the next several days, there’s just not much else to to say. So we’re publishing a list of the reasons—some tongue in cheek, some not—of why we ought to be thankful for this heat and drought. We received hundreds of great suggestions, so thank you to everyone who shared them with us. Without further ado …

10. The BBQ pit heats up far more quickly. Some afternoons you can even dispense with the wood or coals.

9. Roadwork and other construction projects aren’t delayed due to weather.

8. High pressure buffers the region from any hurricanes that might form.

7. Your dogs won’t track in mud from the back yard.

6. If you have children, you can wow them with stories about the good old days when you played outside all summer long.

5. Sunshine and long days produce a solar energy bonanza.

4. Whenever it rains again, if it ever rains again, psychologically it’s going to feel so amazing.

3. Maybe, just maybe, the extreme heat radiating from roads and parking lots, even into the night, will discourage a few potential catalytic converter thieves. 

2. No rain means far fewer mosquitoes are out there biting in the evening.

And the no. 1 reason why this heat and drought ain’t such a bad thing is that you now have a medical reason to eat ice cream—hey doc, it’s helping to keep my core temperature down!

Wednesday

Tuesday’s high temperature “only” reached 98 degrees in Houston, and that’s probably about where things will top out today. Like on Tuesday, we should also see some isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning and into the afternoon hours, with a 20 to 30 percent chance. Once again, if you get hit, you should feel fortunate, as the next street over might get nothing. Winds will be light, primarily out of the southeast.

Thursday

As high pressure intensifies it will tamp down on rain chances, but I think there’s still the potential for an isolated shower or two. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies and highs near 100 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

It will be hot, sunny, and humid. Look for highs of about 100 degrees each day, possibly in the low 100s for inland areas.

Next week

Conditions could start to change by Monday or Tuesday of next week, as a weak front moves into the area and brings more clouds, and perhaps nudges rain chances back up to 20 or 30 percent. This should be enough to bring high temperatures down into the upper 90s, or possibly even mid-90s with enough clouds. It is also possible that rain chances will be even higher, and temperatures lower, but it’s difficult to have too much confidence in such a hopeful forecast this far out. But some sort of change, at least, does appear to be on the way.

Good morning. Today is the longest day of the year, with a length of 14 hours, 3 minutes, and 30 seconds. For Texas, however, there is typically a considerable lag in peak heating, which does not come until August. This is due both to the fact that July and August are often the region’s sunniest months, as well as warmth moving in from the Gulf of Mexico as it continues to heat up during the next few months. Will July or August be hotter than our torrid June this year? We’ll see.

Later this morning, look for a sponsored post from Reliant on taking advantage of all this sunshine with solar energy. And tomorrow, thanks in large part to your submissions, we’ll publish a top 10 list of “reasons why this summer heat and drought are just the best.” Yes, there will be some sarcasm in that list.

Tuesday

Houston had its warmest day of the year on Monday, when the thermometer at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 102 degrees. Temperatures today should be a couple of degrees cooler, as there is a chance for a few more clouds to form, and some isolated showers and thunderstorms later this morning and into the early afternoon hours. If you get hit by a quick shower, consider yourself very lucky. Otherwise expect highs in the upper 90s, with light southeast winds.

Wednesday

This will be a day a lot like Tuesday, with isolated showers and highs in the upper 90s.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Our confidence is high that the heat wave will peak toward the end of this week and weekend, as high pressure builds directly over the region. Look for daily highs of 100 degrees or perhaps even a touch higher. Sunday at this point looks to be the hottest day, and hoo-boy is it going to be hot. Bru-tal.

Next week

At some point next week, likely on Monday or Tuesday, high pressure will back off some and bring our high temperatures back into the upper 90s, or a bit lower. We should also start to see more clouds and even a moderate chance of rainfall. Do I have great confidence in precipitation next week? I do not. But at least there’s a decent chance. Anything will be better than Sunday.