Eric Berger

Good morning. I hope this message finds you happy and healthy on this Thanksgiving morning. I have much to be thankful for in both my personal and professional life. One of the things I am most happy about is the trust placed by readers in the work Matt and I do. So thank you for spending a few moments with Space City Weather on this holiday morning.

This morning’s forecast will focus the forthcoming rain event that will bring two days of showers and thunderstorms to the Houston region. While most of this rainfall will be manageable—most locations should receive 1 to 4 inches—we’re concerned about more isolated areas that could receive up to 6 inches of precipitation between now and Saturday morning. This may cause street flooding, and therefore we have called for a Stage 1 flood alert.

Thursday

As anticipated, we are seeing the development of storms near the coast this morning, in the Freeport and Lake Jackson area. These storms are associated with a warm front moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, and will become more widespread leater this morning. This front should progress toward Interstate 10 by around noon, and it is likely that the strongest storms this afternoon will lie to its north. Therefore, today, we are most concerned about rain accumulations along and north of Interstate 10. Highs today will reach about 70 degrees, give or take, with cloudy skies and muggy air. I expect that showers will back off this evening and during the overnight hours, while the atmosphere recharges.

Friday

Conditions will continue to favor widespread showers and thunderstorms as a cut-off low pressure system lifts moist air at the surface. At this time our higher resolution models are suggesting that storms on Friday will peak during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Over the last couple of days the overall movement of this low pressure system has slowed down, so it’s entirely possible the heavy rainfall threat will extend into Saturday morning. That’s something we’ll be watching for. Highs on Friday will be in the mid-60s.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re still expecting things to clear out significantly this weekend, but there’s now the potential for some lingering storms on Saturday morning. Skies should become partly sunny during the afternoon, with highs in the mid-60s. We’ll be sunny, with a high near 70 on Sunday. Expect this warming trend to continue until Tuesday or Wednesday, when the next front arrives.

As we continue to track this dynamic rainfall situation, Matt will have an update for you this afternoon.

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The outlook for heavy rainfall on Thanksgiving, overnight, and into Friday continues to worsen for the greater Houston area. As we get closer to the onset of rains on Thursday, high resolution models are indicating that the interaction of a warm front—you’ll definitely notice the warmer and muggier air tomorrow morning—and a cut-off low pressure system will produce a lot of rain. To account for this, we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire Houston metro area, which means we are likely to see some street flooding. For more information about our flood scale, see here. The alert is in effect from Thursday morning through Friday evening.

Timing

So what can you expect tomorrow? The pre-dawn hours should be fairly quiet, but by around sunrise or shortly thereafter we can probably expect storms to form to the southwest of Houston, near Matagorda Bay, and move inland toward Houston. By the mid-morning hours, I expect to see fairly widespread, heavy rainfall across much of the region, with the possible expection of areas far inland, such as Conroe or College Station. The potential for intermittent, moderate to heavy rainfall will continue throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours.

At some point on Thursday evening the atmosphere may be fairly well “wrung out,” and need time to recover. So while things may quiet down during the overnight hours, we expect a recharged atmosphere to produce more widespread rainfall on Friday. I don’t think these showers will be as heavy as those on Thanksgiving Day, but we’ll have to see about that. Drier air should finally move into the region on Saturday morning, ending the threat of rainfall and leading to a pleasant, sunny weekend.

Accumulations

I don’t feel particularly confident in predicting how much rain will fall, but given the overall setup and fairly moist atmosphere, I think areas south of Interstate 10 could be looking at 2 to 6 inches of rainfall over both days, with 1 to 5 inches for areas further inland. It is possible that some areas will see more. This is enough to flood some streets, at least for a short time.

I hate to say it, but this really is a fluid situation, and we can probably expect additional forecast changes. For now, we want you to be weather aware tomorrow when you’re out and about celebrating the holiday. Be sure to check the radar before hitting the road, and of course do not go outside into storms where there is lightning.

We’ll have our next update no later than early Thursday morning, and will provide coverage throughout the holiday as needed.

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Well, the good news is that the weather should be fine today for travel in the greater Houston region, and throughout much of Texas. The bad news is that the forecast for Thanksgiving Day, night, and into Friday is not great. The big picture is that by Thursday morning rain chances will be on the rise, and we expect to see a storm system move in during the afternoon hours. Additional showers are possible overnight, and throughout the day on Friday. Unfortunately, now it looks like conditions really won’t clear out until Friday night or Saturday morning.

Wednesday

Today should be mostly sunny—yes, really—offering a short break from our rainy pattern. These mostly clear skies will allow high temperatures to warm into the upper 60s. As winds turn to come from the southeast, you’ll notice pretty rapidly increasing humidity levels. Along with this increased atmospheric moisture, clouds will build this evening over the area. Overnight lows probably will only drop to around 60 degrees.

From Wednesday night through Friday we’re going to experience a prolonged period of high rain chances. Why, you may ask, will we see rainfall even after a cold front moves into the region on Thursday evening? The answer is that an area of low pressure system will break off from the main westerly pattern in the atmosphere. This “cutoff low” will then more or less meander over Texas for a couple of days, spurring intermittent rainfall from Thursday morning through Friday night, before moving off.

Thursday

The start of the Thanksgiving holiday will be warmish, in the 60s, with muggy air. We’re going to see at least some scattered showers during the morning hours, but there’s a chance you’ll avoid rain until the afternoon. However, after that time I expect a more organized mass of showers and thunderstorms to move into much of the region, bringing as much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. While this will be unpleasant, I don’t think it will cause any real flooding issues. There is also the potential for some more severe weather, including damaging winds, but I think heavy rainfall and lightning is the primary threat. You most definitely need a fallback plan for any outdoor activities or gatherings on Thanksgiving. Look for highs in the low 70s, dropping into the 50s overnight as cooler air from the front moves in.

Friday

Eventually, drier air should move into the mid-levels of the atmosphere and bring an end to rain chances. But it now looks like that will not happen until Friday evening. So much of the day on Friday will be subject to (mostly) light or moderate rain showers. Chances are probably 60 or 70 percent. Highs will be in the low 60s. Rain chances drop Friday night, although not entirely, as lows sink into the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks solidly pleasant, with ample sunny skies. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 60s, and rising to around 70 degrees on Sunday.

Next week

We will see a warming trend next week, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s, or possibly even 80 degrees, by Tuesday. After that it seems likely that another front will push into the region. Some showers may be possible with this front, but the forecast is pretty fuzzy.

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Good morning, Houston. I can’t say that I expected to wake up early this morning to the pitter patter of rainfall, but here we are. After a dry summer and early fall November has proven to be far wetter than anticipated. It has rained more than half of the days this month in Houston, although this has mostly been lighter rain. This wet pattern will persist through Thanksgiving, which I am afraid put a damper on outdoor activities—unless your family’s holiday rituals involve cyclocross or rugby.

With that said, it is difficult to complain too much about the rain. This month’s soaking rains are helping lift the upper Texas coast out of a drought that began this summer. Since we will experience another La Niña winter—which tends to bring drier and warmer conditions here—I was concerned about this drought persisting into next spring, or summer. A wet month won’t completely extinguish the region’s drought, but it is certainly very helpful.

Tuesday

An atmospheric disturbance just offshore has hung around longer than expected this morning, somewhat like an unwanted house guest. This system is helping to produce ongoing light showers across much of the region south of Interstate 10. These showers may persist through the morning hours before finally dissipating. Inland areas may see a bit of sunshine this afternoon, but the coast is likely to remain mostly cloudy. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be light, out of the northeast. With mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures tonight probably will drop to around 50 degrees.

Wednesday

This should be a fairly nice day, as November days go. We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 60s. Winds will veer to become more easterly, and this will start to increase atmospheric moisture levels, setting the stage for increasing rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday.

Thursday

It looks like I’ll be able to eat turkey for Thanksgiving, rather than crow. That’s because, in our initial Thanksgiving outlook eight days ago, I wrote, “So my early forecast for Turkey Day calls for somewhat warmer, and possibly wetter weather.” This forecast is going to verify. Thanksgiving is going to feel fairly muggy for November, with highs in the low 70s and dewpoints to match. The timing for rainfall on Thanksgiving remains a bit uncertain, but there looks to be a healthy chance of light to moderate showers throughout much of the morning, afternoon, and evening. We can’t exclude some heavier rain showers, and these are most likely north of Interstate 10. All told, most of the area will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals.

Friday

The rains will end at some point on Friday, but it’s difficult to say whether that will be midnight, mid-morning, or early afternoon—something to consider if Black Friday shopping is in your plans. As a front moves through, we will see some clearing skies, eventually. Expect Friday morning to start out in the 50s, with a high somehwere in the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

This looks like a fine, late fall weekend with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s. Lows on Saturday and Sunday mornings will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland, and slightly warmer ones along the coast. Rain chances are near zero.

Next week

We should see a warming trend for the first half of next week, with highs getting back up to around 70 degrees, with moderate nights. After Thanksgiving, the rest of November looks fairly dry.

Fundraiser

We’re in the final week of our fundraiser, the one time each year you have the opportunity to support what we do. Matt and I have lots of plans for 2023, so your help now allows us to put those plans into action. To support our efforts, you can buy Space City Weather merchandise here, or donate by clicking “I’d like to make a donantion” only. Thank you!