Eric Berger

Welcome to May, a month in Houston that typically feels more like summer than spring. Before we jump into the forecast I want to look back at April’s weather, which was warmer, windier, and brought us fewer showers that are supposed to bring May flowers. The average temperature in April was 72.8 degrees, which was 2.8 degrees above normal. The winds, perhaps the most recognizable feature last month, averaged 11.0 mph, which is more than 2 mph above normal. And while rainfall totals varied pretty widely, our regional drought worsened for areas south of Interstate 10. May will be warmer, but we might hope that it will be a little rainier, and a little less windy.

Monday

Cloudy skies this morning will give way to partly sunny conditions later today, with high temperatures likely pushing into the mid- to upper-80s. As an atmospheric disturbance moves through from west to east this morning, we may see a few light to moderate showers, but these should end by around noon. Winds will blow from the south at 10 to 20 mph, with some gusts as high as 25 mph possible this afternoon. It will be a humid evening, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, with highs likely in the upper 80s and a mix of sunshine and clouds. Winds will also be notable out of the south. But whereas rain chances were about 20 percent on Monday, they’re probably 10 percent or less on Tuesday.

Wednesday

Most likely this will be another warm, humid, and windy day with highs pushing into the upper 80s. Rain chances again will be quite low.

Thursday and Friday

Our weather toward the end of the week will be partly determined by whether an advancing front makes it all the way to Houston, and down to the coast. I’m at about 50-50 on whether this happens, The front won’t bring much cooling, but it could spark a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms—perhaps 30 percent—on Thursday or Thursday night—and bring some drier air into the region. Highs both days should be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, regardless.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Regardless of what the front does, we can be pretty confident in a hot weekend as high pressure builds into the area. We’re talking highs in the low 90s, with lots of sunshine and ample humidity. This warm and mostly sunny pattern will continue at least into early next week.

Good morning. After our spectacular weather on Wednesday, the story of the next several days will be that of warming weather to the point where it almost feels like summer in Houston, but not quite. I expect we’ll see several days of low 90s next week.

Thursday

Today will bring something of a transition day, as southerly winds start to pick up to around 10 to 15 mph. This increase in atmospheric moisture will help generate a few clouds and nudge high temperatures into the low- to mid-80s. We’ll also see dewpoints rise into the mid-60s, which will start to bring more humidity in, but won’t feel oppressively so. Overnight low temperatures on Thursday likely won’t drop much below 70 degrees for most of the area.

Friday

By Friday we’ll be well into the upper 80s, with southerly winds gusting to about 20 mph, and a mixture of sunshine and clouds. Lows Friday night probably will drop to only about 70 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see a cold front push into Texas, but probably not into the Houston metro area. In response to the approaching front our winds from the south may veer a bit more southwesterly, and this is likely to boost temperatures. I expect much of the region away from the coast to reach 90 degrees. For areas north of Interstate 10 there is perhaps a 10 or 15 percent chance of rain later on Saturday or Saturday night.

Sunday

Sunday should bring more of the same, with partly sunny skies and highs near or at 90 degrees. There will again be a slight chance of rain but the vast majority of us will remain dry. Southerly winds, at times gusting to 15 or 20 mph, should be a constant companion. With dewpoints rising into the low 70s, expect it to feel sticky outside for sure.

Next week

High pressure will begin building over the weekend, and we’ll feel its effects at least through the middle of next week and possibly beyond. This will manifest itself in highs near 90 degrees, or just above, with partly sunny days and warm, humid nights. When might this change? Maybe next weekend, around Friday or Saturday, or thereafter, some kind of weak front might make it through. No promises whatsoever, I’m afraid. Fall, winter, and spring have had a good run … but now we’ve got to face up to about five months of summer.

Good morning. Houston will enjoy a spectacular spring-like day today before we start our rise toward weather I like to call “summer lite.” While the next 10 days won’t feel like the truly sultry conditions we get here in August, after winter and spring the near-90 degree weather with ample humidity won’t feel far off. Bottom line: Enjoy the dry air today, because it will be gone tomorrow.

Also, I want to announce that I’ve started a Space City Weather TikTok page. For many of you, this will be an announcement of no consequence. But my 14-year-old daughter convinced me to experiment with it, so that’s what I’ll be doing. It will be a mix of weather, nerdy humor, and no doubt for me, a modicum of embarrassment.

Wednesday

Today’s the day, folks. We may see one or two more weak fronts this spring in Houston, but looking out over the next 10 days there are absolutely no guarantees of that. So enjoy today if you can. We’ll see reasonably dry air—with dewpoints in the 50s—and sunny skies as highs climb to around 80 degrees. Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures tonight will only be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night, but the air will already start to feel a bit more humid.

Thursday

This is kind of a transition day from spring to summer lite, as we’ll only probably see temperatures in the low 80s. But there will be some clouds, and we will start to see some gusty southerly winds at 20 to 25 mph. Lows Thursday night may not drop below 70 degrees in some parts of Houston.

Friday

Expect partly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 80s and more southerly breezes, perhaps gusting to 25 or even 30 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

You guessed it: More heat and humidity. Highs this weekend will push the upper 80s to possibly 90 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. We can’t rule out a few scattered showers on each afternoon, but the chance is only probably 10 or 15 percent each day. Expect ongoing southerly breezes. If you’re riding in the Bike MS: Texas MS 150, be sure and drink plenty of water.

Next week

Not a whole lot changes to start next week, with daily rain chances of 10 to 20 percent. However it looks like, by the middle of next week, high pressure may start to exert more influence. That would shut down any potential for rain, and drive highs into the low 90s. So, yeah.

The Houston region received some much needed rainfall on Monday. The 0.25 to 3 inches of rainfall picked up will not erase our emerging drought, especially for areas south of Interstate 10, but for many parts of the area this was the first meaningful rainfall in all of April. Our next decent chance of rain will come next Sunday or Monday, but it is by no means a slam dunk.

Tuesday

The rains have ended for now, and northerly winds are bringing drier air into the region. Highs today will probably reach about 80 degrees beneath partially clearing skies this afternoon, as winds continue at 10 to 15 mph from the north. This evening should be quite pleasant, as winds relax and we see some of the last dry air of this spring. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 50s for areas well inland, with 60s closer to the coast.

Wednesday

This should be a great day, with highs of around 80 degrees, sunny skies, dry air, and light winds. Really, if you can spend a little time out doors morning, midday, or evening, you should.

Thursday and Friday

As the southerly flow reestablishes itself, our humidity and temperatures are going to go up. These will be partly sunny days with highs in the low to mid-80s on Thursday, and mid- to upper-80s on Friday. Nighttime lows will bounce back up to the low 70s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday will almost feel summer-like, as temperatures reach near 90 degrees, with lots of sunshine and plenty of humidity. Sunday may see a few more clouds, and there probably will be a 20 percent chance of rain, or so, as the atmosphere is perturbed by an advancing cold front that will wash out well north of Houston. Some modest rain chances will remain for the first part of next week, with daily highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

There is a decent chance of a cool front around the end of the first week of May, perhaps in the Thursday or Friday time frame of next week. But it is far, far from a lock at this point.