Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston faces two more hot days before a weak front arrives to provide some relief, mostly in the form of cloudier skies, which will bring down temperatures, as well as producing scattered to widespread showers. After Thursday we should be done with high temperatures in the triple digits for awhile, which sounds great to me.

If we may, Matt and I would also like to take a moment this morning to thank all of the teachers in the greater Houston area. Kids have, or soon will, return to schools across the region and I know teachers have already been hard at work preparing for classes. You all have difficult jobs, particularly in dealing with parents and administrators, and we certainly appreciate your efforts to teach our children. We’re only sorry that we couldn’t give you better weather this summer.

Wednesday

Today’s going to be hot as the region bakes beneath a ridge of high pressure. Expect highs to range from the upper 90s to low 100s, with sunny skies. Some scattered showers are possible for northern areas, such as Montgomery County, but the rest of us will be dry. Winds will be light, out of the southwest, at around 5 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy overnight, with lows briefly dropping below 80 degrees in the city.

Thursday

This is going to be another hot day, with highs likely comparable to Wednesday for Houston, especially the southern half of the region. The big story of the day will be the weak front, which will drift southward during the day. At this point I anticipate showers and thunderstorms developing north of Houston during the late morning hours and pushing down into the metro area during the afternoon hours. These storms may reach the coast by around sunset, give or take a couple of hours. Showers and thunderstorms remain likely overnight, with area-wide rain chances at about 60 to 70 percent. These storms could produce briefly heavy rainfall, and damaging winds.

Friday

Rain chances on Friday will be governed to some degree by the extent to which storms on Thursday work over the atmosphere. If we get fairly decent rains on Thursday the atmosphere may be fairly stable, leading to more scattered showers on Friday. Fewer rains on Thursday probably would lead to more widespread showers on Friday. Anyway, look for highs to peak in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies. Overall rain accumulations should be greater this week for inland areas, with lesser totals near the coast.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with daily rain chances of about 50 percent. I don’t anticipate any washouts, but passing showers could briefly disrupt your outdoor activities. Highs will generally be in the low 90s, but I think some far inland areas could sneak into the mid- or upper 90s. Right now there are just no indications that the remainder of August will be insanely hot, nor even abnormally so.

We’re also looking toward the tropics at the area of low pressure Matt wrote about on Tuesday, but our overall thinking remains the same in terms of the overall low potential for a tropical storm to develop. This system may bring enough moisture to elevate our rain chances along the Upper Texas coast on Sunday and the early part of next week, and it may not. Regardless, we appear to be looking at a pattern of slightly cooler than normal weather, with highs mostly in the low 90s for next week. It’s difficult to beat that in late August, my friends.

The forecast for Houston is pretty straightforward: Houston will see a few more very hot days before a weak front arrives on Thursday to increase cloud cover and rain chances, and bring down temperatures a bit. Then, we are likely to see near-normal to below-normal temperatures into at least the middle of next week. Finally, the tropics may be waking up.

Tuesday

Here comes the heat. With high pressure continuing to build over the region we will see highs in the mid- to upper-90s across much of the Houston region today, with inland areas such as College Station and Huntsville likely hitting triple digits. Rain chances are, at best, about 10 percent with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the south or southeast, at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday and Thursday

The heat will peak on these days, with 100-degree temperatures possible across much of the region, except for the immediate coast. Sunny skies will prevail for much of that time, but things will begin to change later on Thursday as a weak front approaches the region. This is not a classical fall cold front, mind you, when there is a distinct wind shift followed by an influx of colder and drier air. We really don’t get such fronts in August, as it’s just too early. Rather, this front will mostly perturb the atmosphere, allowing for rising air and the formation of clouds. This will, in turn, help increase rain chances and start to hold down daily highs. But because the front is unlikely to push into Houston until Thursday afternoon or so, that day is still probably going to bring triple-digit-hot for most of the area. Rain chances start to tick up Thursday afternoon or evening, likely in the form of scattered showers.

Friday

This day will probably have the best chance of rain this week, above 50 percent for the region. The additional cloud cover should hold high temperatures in the low-90s for much of the area.

Saturday and Sunday

The aforementioned front is basically going to move down to the coast on Thursday, get hung up, and eventually dissipate. Nevertheless its remains should continue to help produce partly cloudy skies and decent rain chances on the order of 30 to 50 percent through the weekend. Accumulations across much of the area will vary from 0.25 to 2.0 inches, with the highest accumulations likely to the east of Houston. Highs will likely remain in the low 90s.

Next week

Our weather next week will be guided, to some extent, by tropical moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. Matt will have more in our weekly tropics update later this morning, but there is potential for a tropical wave currently in the Caribbean Sea to move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico toward the end of this week. There, it could start to develop into a tropical system. This is not something I think we probably need to be directly concerned about, but the system could influence our weather early next week with increased moisture and the potential for more rain showers. The bottom line is that we’re now in the middle of August, and watching the tropics closely. More from Matt, soon.

Good morning. After several days of on-and-off showers due to an infusion of tropical moisture, high pressure will begin to reassert its influence over our weather today, and this will push our temperatures back above normal for August. The heat will peak on Wednesday before a weak front brings some relief in the form of clouds, showers, and slightly lower daytime temperatures. Miraculously, we may then be looking at a week or so of near- or slightly below-normal temperatures for August in Houston. Yes, please.

On a completely unrelated note, I’m participating in the Bay Area “Dancing with the Stars” event on September 10 that will be held at the Doyle Convention Center in Texas City. I am not a dancer by an means, but I’ve been working hard with my partner for the event, Nassau Bay City Secretary Sandra Ham, to fix that. By some miracle, Mariel Blain of Dance Visions has taught us a more than 2-minute tango. In a few weeks we will compete on stage with five other couples to raise money for the Bay Area Alliance for Youth and Families. You can find out more information here, and if you’re so inclined you can support your favorite couple by text, or buying a table.

Monday

Today will bring partly sunny skies to the region, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid-90s for much of the Houston region (far inland areas will be hotter). This is somewhat of a transition day, as high pressure is still building over the area. As a result there may still be a 10 or 15 percent chance of rain, but consider yourself lucky if you see a brief shower. Winds will be light, out of the southwest, at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday

With high pressure fully in control we’ll see highs jump into the upper 90s to 100 degrees for much of the region. Wednesday looks like the hottest day of the week, when much of the metro area should reach triple digits. Rain chances will be low to nil for the region.

Thursday and Friday

Thursday will probably start out hot again, but the aforementioned weak front should push into the Houston area during the daytime, bringing clouds and an elevated chance of rain through Friday or Friday night. Much of the area will probably see 0.5 to 2 inches of rain during this period, but that is a general guess at this point rather than a high confidence forecast. Thursday will be hotter ahead of the front, but highs on Friday may top out at around 90 degrees. The front will not result in appreciably lower dew points, but it will at least take the sting out of daytime highs.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

High pressure should not reassert itself this weekend, or heading into the weekend. As a result, I think we’re looking at a fairly sustained stretch of weather in the low 90s for this weekend and beyond, with decent 30 to 40 percent daily rain chances. This could be weather like we were supposed to have in June, but did not. Either way, for the historically hottest time of the year, we’ll take anything we can get.

As expected, a line of storms moved through Houston on Wednesday evening, bringing 0.5 to 3 inches of rain across much of the region in addition to damaging winds. In some of the strongest storms, wind gusts reached as high as 50 to 60 mph. The atmosphere remains pretty worked over after these storms, but it should recharge in time for additional rainfall on Friday and Saturday before the region returns to a hotter and sunnier pattern for a few days.

Thursday

Skies will be partly to mostly sunny today, with high temperatures likely climbing into the low- to mid-90s for much of the Houston area. Winds will be light, generally out of the north at about 5 mph. While the atmosphere is moist, it also remains a little bit more stable after Wednesday’s storms. That could start to change this afternoon or evening, however, with the sea breeze perhaps initiating some precipitation. At this point I would peg rain chances at about 50 percent area-wide.

Friday and Saturday

These days should see healthy rain chances as an atmospheric disturbance moves in from the Gulf of Mexico. Showers should start offshore and propagate inland during the morning hours on Friday. With a moist atmosphere in place, these should be partly cloudy and cooler days, with highs generally ranging from 90 to 95 degrees, and light northerly or easterly winds. Rain chances are above 50 percent both days, as storms generally move from east to west. Right now I don’t expect thunderstorms to be as organized or intense as they were on Wednesday evening, but it’s something we’re watching for. Overall the region will probably pick up an additional 0.5 to 2 inches of rain, with coastal regions favored for the higher end of those totals.

Sunday

At some point this weekend, perhaps on Saturday afternoon or perhaps not until Sunday, high pressure will start to have more of an influence on our weather. This will tamp down rain chances and bring back the sunshine. As a result, for Sunday, I expect to see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s.

Next week

Beyond Sunday, the early part of next week looks fairly hot and mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for most of the Houston metro area. However, by Thursday or so a front will be approaching the region from the north. And while this front is unlikely to push into Houston, it should help to destabilize the atmosphere, bringing healthy rain chances back to the forecast by Thursday or Friday, and probably knocking highs back into the low 90s.