Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston faces the threat of severe weather later today, and especially tonight, as a slow-moving cold front advances toward the region. This system will be bringing storms across central and east Texas during the next 24 to 30 hours before it finally moves east. During that period we face both the threat of severe thunderstorms, including hail and tornadoes, as well as heavy rainfall. To account for this heavy rainfall, we have instituted a Stage 1 flood alert for the Houston region for areas north of Interstate 10.

Monday

We’re not expecting too much action during the daytime. There will be some scattered showers, but nothing too extreme, as temperatures reach the low 70s beneath cloudy skies. Winds, however, will be noticeable out of the south, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph or even higher at times. For areas west and north of downtown Houston, conditions will start to become more favorable for strong thunderstorms around sunset. At that point storms are likely to sag southeastward, toward central Houston and the coast overnight.

Monday night and Tuesday morning

There will be an abundance of moisture and energy in the atmosphere tonight, which translates into the potential for vigorous thunderstorms. This system will be capable of producing large hail, briefly strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. While this system will be dynamic, and the details are to be determined, generally I think we can expect an initial round of strong thunderstorms during the overnight hours, to be followed by a band of heavier rainfall (with less potential for severe effects like hail and tornadoes) sometime around sunrise on Tuesday morning.

Overall rain totals will likely be 2 to 4 inches for areas north of Interstate 10, and 1 to 4 inches for locations south of the freeway. Some inland locations will see more than 4 inches, and therefore we have placed areas north of Interstate 10 under a Stage 1 flood alert. Street flooding is the most likely outcome.

If this forecast gives you anxiety, please consider that NOAA’s forecast for storm activity locally is mostly in the orange or “enhanced” category (see above). This is relatively high, but there are two higher gradients of storm potential. So while our area is likely to see some severe activity, your personal chances of being directly affected by a tornado are really very low. With that said, due to the potential for inclement weather, this is time to pay attention. It is important that you have one or more ways to get weather warnings tomorrow night (such as you phone, a weather radio, etc.) Matt and I will provide additional updates today, tonight, and Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

As the front moves through on Tuesday morning it should begin to sweep away the rainfall, with rains likely ending mid-morning for most locations. Skies should clear out fairly quickly on Tuesday as drier air pushes in, with sunny skies in the afternoon and highs in the 70s. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the upper 40s for Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The rest of the week should yield mostly sunny, pleasant weather with highs in the 60s and 70s, lows in the 40s and 50s. Look for a reinforcing shot of drier air sometime around Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

At this vantage point, the weekend looks nice as well. Look for highs in the 70s or possibly low 80s, lows in the 50s, and partly to mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will recover some, but the air should still feel pleasant dry outside.

Good morning, everyone. I’m back from Spring Break and ready for whatever Mother Nature is going to throw at us in the weeks and months ahead. In the near term, that means more beautiful weather today, and the potential for storms and heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday. To account for possible street flooding, we are issuing a Stage 1 Flood Alert for areas along and north of Interstate 10 from noon Monday through noon Tuesday.

Sunday

After a drop-dead gorgeous Saturday, today will be similarly nice with highs in the mid-70s, ample sunshine, and plenty of dry air. One difference you’ll notice is that winds will become southerly later this afternoon, perhaps gusting to 15 to 20 mph. This will start the influx of moisture that will increase the potential for storms on Monday and Tuesday. Lows on Sunday night will only drop to around 60 degrees, as clouds move in.

Monday and Tuesday

Monday morning will warm, gray, and humid, with the possibility of some light showers across the area. However, winds will continue to build out of the south and southeast, perhaps gusting to 35 or even 40 during the daytime. These winds will be in response to an advancing low pressure system and cold front. This system will combine with the increasing moisture levels to produce a favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, during the afternoon and evening hours. Some hail, damaging wind gusts, and even tornadoes are possible in Houston, especially away from the coast.

This severe storm threat will persist into Monday night, but at some point the potential for hail and tornadoes will diminish. However, as that’s happening, by early Tuesday, we should see increasing potential for heavy rainfall as the front itself nears. I think, overall, most locations can probably expect 1 to 4 inches of rain with higher isolated totals. It has been so dry that such rain totals are manageable, but as usual we can probably expect some street flooding on Tuesday in hard hit spots. The potential for heavy rain is greatest for inland areas, so we’re issuing a Stage 1 Flood Alert for Houston locations along and north of Interstate 10.

The front itself probably should push into central Houston around noon on Tuesday, or few hours earlier. This should end the threat of inclement weather. Lows will drop into the 40s for most areas on Tuesday night as cooler air moves in.

Wednesday and beyond

Things clear out and cool down with the arrival of a front on Tuesday, and this will lead to mostly sunny and pleasant spring-like weather for the rest of the week. More details on this tomorrow.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

A strong cold front will cross our region this morning, bringing very cold and blustery conditions to our area through the weekend. However, much fairer weather is on tap for much of next week, with Spring Break for most Houston-area students feeling quite a bit like spring, lots of days in the 70s, and a fair amount of sunshine.

Friday

The front is a little bit ahead of schedule, having already reached College Station and pushing quickly toward Houston. It should reach the city during the mid- or late-morning hours, and will likely be near or off the coast by around Noon. Once the front passes, winds will pick up pretty quickly out of the north, and temperatures will start to plunge. Winds should peak overnight, gusting to 35 mph or even higher. For most inland areas, the front’s passage should be a fairly dry one, in terms of rainfall, but there’s enough moisture on the coastal side of Highway 59/Interstate 69 to expect some shower activity this afternoon as the front passes and in its immediate wake. Some coastal areas could pick up as much as an inch of rain before sunset. Temperatures tonight will drop to below freezing for some inland areas, and possibly parts of Houston itself, as skies clear allowing for optimal cooling.

If you’re heading out to the rodeo to see Bun B’s H-Town Takeover, please dress warmly. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s this evening. And while I don’t think rainfall will be an issue, winds will be blowing pretty good through the area at this time, making for rather unpleasant conditions outdoors. Temperatures will drop into the low 40s after the show, with plenty of wind still out there.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will bring brilliant blue skies into the forecast, but with a cold northerly flow highs will only get into the mid-50s. While northerly winds will have died back some, we can still expect to see some gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Expect another chilly night in the 30s for most of the area, although lows probably will be a couple of degrees warmer than Friday night.

Sunday

Don’t forget to spring forward an hour this morning for Daylight Saving Time. This should be a mostly sunny day, with highs in the 60s. As winds shift to come from the southeast, we can probably expect clouds to develop Sunday night, and temperatures to moderate quite a bit into the mid-50s.

Next week

If you’re taking some time off for Spring Break next week, but staying in the Houston metro area, you’re in luck. Monday will probably be gray, with lot of clouds and perhaps a smattering of rain showers, but after that a weak front should put the region’s weather back on track. Look for highs in the 70s, nights in the 50s, and a fair amount of sunshine for the rest of the work week.

Congratulations, Houston. You’ve made it to the one day this week that will have truly spectacular weather, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. A strong cold front will push into the region on Friday, of course, bringing much chillier conditions back into the picture. However, beyond this, overall nice conditions look to be in store for Spring Break, with highs mostly in the 70s next week and plenty of sunshine.

Thursday

As we’ve been saying for awhile, today will be splendid for outdoor activities. Winds should be fairly light, out of the south, and highs will warm into the low 70s for most areas with mostly sunny skies. As moisture levels come up some this afternoon and evening, we’ll start to see the development of some clouds overnight, and this should help to ensure overnight lows do not drop below 50 degrees for most of our region.

If you’re making the trek out to the Houston Rodeo this evening to see Journey, your migration there should be a smooth sojourn. Temperatures this evening should be in the low 60s, with light winds. Post-show temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-50s, so pretty mild weather for this time of year. Some light showers may develop overnight, but I don’t think they’ll do so until well after the rodeo closes.

Friday

Some light showers will be possible on Friday morning, as moisture surges inland ahead of the cold front. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly cloudy with temperatures likely pushing into the upper 60s. The aforementioned front is on track to push into northwest areas of the region during late hours of the morning, and probably will reach the central part of Houston during the afternoon, and the coast around sunset, give or take a few hours. The front will bring sharply colder air, and winds will blow out of the north at 20 to 25 mph, with higher gusts. As skies clear out, expect temperatures to plunge into the 30s on Friday night, with parts of the metro area seeing a freeze. Just how much of Houston sees a freeze depends on several factors, so it’s impossible to pinpoint a freeze line just yet (see forecast map for the best guess).

Saturday and Sunday

Winds will still be blowing out of the north on Saturday morning, but they won’t be quite as strong as Friday night. Despite sunny skies, highs will only get into the 50s, with another chilly night in store, as lows drop into the 30s. Sunday should be mostly sunny, with highs in the 60s.

Next week

Monday will warm up quite a bit, with highs in the mid-70s, in response to a southerly flow. This will help to increase cloud cover. However, a weak front should arrive Monday night, or thereabouts, and this will help bring mostly sunny skies and somewhat drier air back into the region. As a result, most of the rest of the week probably will see highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and a fair amount of sunshine. Enjoy!