Eric Berger

Good morning. One year ago today temperatures plunged across the region as an Arctic front moved into the Houston region. This marked the beginning of our coldest weather in decades, as ice covered roads, temperatures dropped into the low teens, and millions lost power and shivered inside their homes. It was an absolute disaster. Fortunately, we’re not going to see its like again this winter. Instead, this week, we’ll see a mix of weather, with a little bit of something for everyone.

Monday

Winds are calm this morning, but will pick up from the south-southwest as high pressure shifts eastward from Houston. This will help lead to a warming trend across the region, with highs generally reaching the upper 60s this afternoon beneath mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds will be light tonight, with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40s.

Tuesday

As atmospheric moisture levels begin to rise along with the southerly flow, some patchy fog is possible on Tuesday morning. Skies will see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with highs likely reaching about 70 degrees. Winds from the south will start to become more vigorous, with some gusts up to 20 to 25 mph possible, during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

As dewpoints continue to rise in response to the warm, southerly flow, expect a decent chance of fog. An upper level system with an associated front will be stirring up the atmosphere on Wednesday. This should make for another day with a breezy southerly wind, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Some rain is possible too, although the better chances will probably come Wednesday night as the front draws near. Storms are possible to the north of the city, with better chances near Dallas. Lows Wednesday night should only drop into the low 60s.

Thursday

The rains, which will generally be light and and result in a tenth of an inch or two of accumulations, should end Thursday morning before a front blows through. This front should reach areas northwest of Houston before noon, the city itself around noon, and the coast during the afternoon. Winds will be gusty in the wake of the front, out of the north, with clearing skies. Temperatures on Thursday afternoon will drop into the 50s for most locations, and into the upper 30s by Friday morning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend will be cooler, with calmer winds, and mostly sunny skies. Expect highs to reach the upper 50s on Friday, with another night of lows in the upper 30s to 40 degrees in Houston. Saturday and Sunday should both see highs in the 60s. Overall it should be a rather pleasant winter weekend. Expect a fairly robust warming trend as we get into next week, with highs reaching the upper 70s by mid-week, probably.

Houston experienced spectacular weather on Wednesday, and this pattern will continue until a cold front shakes things up a bit this weekend. Still, the overall plan is for nearly continuous sunshine through the early part of next week.

Thursday

Lows are generally in the low 40s this morning, but with mostly sunny skies this afternoon highs will reach 70 degrees, or just a tad warmer, for most locations. Winds will be light, from the west, at perhaps 5 mph. A few clouds may form tonight, with lows likely dropping into the low-to-mid 40s—a few degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

As temperatures on Friday morning fall to near dewpoints, a few areas of light fog are possible. But then we should quickly see mostly sunny skies, and this will allow high temperatures to reach 70 to 75 degrees. Winds will again be fairly light. Overnight lows may only drop to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Saturday

Unfortunately, after the entire work week saw sunny and sedate weather, we’ve got a front to deal with on Saturday, likely before noon. Effectively this means that areas inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69 may only warm into the 50s before the front’s arrival, and coastal areas the low 60s. Some light rain is possible with the front, especially nearer the coast where more moisture is available. Still, any showers will probably be briefly lived. Winds should gust to 20 to 25 mph on Saturday afternoon, in the front’s wake. As drier air moves in Saturday afternoon, skies should clear out during the late afternoon or evening hours. Overnight lows probably will drop into the upper 30s in Houston, with a light freeze possible for areas far north and west of the city.

Sunday

This should be a fine winter day, with relatively light winds, sunshine, and highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. Sunday night should be a degree or two warmer than Saturday night.

Next week

We’ll see a warming trend, with temperatures rebounding to 70 degrees by Tuesday. Then we’ll see a pattern change as clouds begin to build and rain chances return. This will happen as the atmosphere sees a series of disturbances rotated through, and moisture levels start to increase. We’re not looking at anything crazy, I don’t think, with probably 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain for most. I’d pencil in our next front for Thursday, which will perhaps knock lows back into the low 40s, give or take.

Houston’s weather on Tuesday was spectacular, and there’s more of it ahead. We’ll continue to see sunny skies and mild winter temperatures until Saturday, when a front blows through. And then, shortly after this, we’ll see more sunshine and fantastic winter weather.

Wednesday

Most of the region is seeing lows in the upper 30s this morning. But with light southerly and westerly winds, and abundant sunshine, we should warm nicely to about 70 degrees this afternoon. Low temperatures overnight should be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night, with much of Houston settling into the low 40s.

Thursday and Friday

The spectacular sunshine show continues, as does a slow warming trend. Both of these days should see highs of around 70 degrees, but overnight lows will creep up into the mid-40s by Friday morning, and perhaps around 50 degrees by Saturday morning. Winds both days should be light out of the south or southwest.

Saturday

There’s finally some agreement among the models in a frontal passage on Saturday around noon, or during the morning hours. For inland locations, then, highs may top out in the 50s, while coastal areas hit 60 degrees before the front arrives. Most likely this will be a dry passage, as the air simply won’t be holding enough moisture to really generate much in the way of rainfall. Winds will be noticeable, from the north, with the front’s passage. Expect gusts of 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows Saturday night will probably drop into the upper 30s for Houston, with slightly warmer conditions along the coast.

Sunday

This should be a fine, sunny winter day with highs in the mid-50s. Winds should not be too much of a factor. Expect lows on Sunday night to be a degree or two warmer than Saturday night.

Next week

Another week, with more sunshine, is likely. Houston will probably warm back to around 70 degrees on Wednesday before another front brings a decent chance of rain seven or eight days from now.

Houston will continue to see splendid winter weather for awhile, with no major temperature or precipitation concerns. Instead, we’ll see a sustained stretch of sunny days, with moderate days and cool nights. Enjoy!

Tuesday

It’s cold out there this morning, but as light winds shift to come from the south later today, we’ll see high temperatures nudge up to the mid-60s beneath sunny skies. This should also help to moderate low temperatures a bit tonight, probably keeping most of the metro area at 40 degrees, or above.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Overall, a fairly cool and dry air mass should remain in place over South Texas. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s on these days, with light southerly and southwesterly winds. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s, although by Friday night they may only drop to around 50 degrees in Houston. Dewpoints will remain comfortably dry. Skies will be sunny, with nary a chance of rain. This is great weather for picnics, field trips, outdoor classrooms, or anything else out of doors.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is coming a little bit better into focus, although there are still some questions about the details. In the big picture, a fairly strong cold front is likely to move through Houston during the daytime, perhaps after noon. So it’s likely that most parts of the region will see a moderately warm morning, and then have things cool off with the frontal passage. Some brief, light rain is possible during Saturday along with the front’s passage, but I think that’s still very much an open question. Winds will probably be breezy on Saturday night, perhaps gusting to around 20 mph, with temperatures dropping to around 40 degrees in Houston. Highs on Sunday should be in the 50s, with mostly sunny skies and a northerly breeze.

Next week

After a chilly start, I think we’ll see a more robust warm up next week with highs returning to the 70s. Widespread rain chances return to the forecast sometime after Monday as well.