Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston will have two more hot and sunny days before our weather transitions to a wetter—and perhaps a much wetter pattern—toward the end of this week and into next week. We’re going to need to watch the tropics closely, as we expect the Gulf of Mexico to see one and perhaps two storms between now and September 10.

Tuesday

High pressure remains firmly in place for now, and this means Houston will see a hot and sunny day with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with light southerly winds. This will be a classic, late August day with a warm night.

Wednesday

Beginning Wednesday the aforementioned high pressure system should begin to slowly recede northward, and this may open the region to some slight rain chances. Areas south of Interstate 10 may see about a one-in-three chance of rain, with lesser chances inland. Skies should be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid- to upper 90s.

Thursday and Friday

With the high pulling away, we should start to see some atmospheric disturbances rotating around its southern periphery. This should bring increased cloud cover and approximately 50-50 rain chances for the end of the work week. This will help to moderate high temperatures, likely holding them in the low 90s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday should see about 50 percent rain chances, and Sunday higher still as tropical moisture levels push into the area. Rain chances will be higher the closer one lives to the coast, with residents in Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers counties probably having about a 70 percent chance of rain by Sunday. Skies this weekend will be partly sunny, with highs in the low 90s.

The wet pattern will likely continue into the first half of next week. How wet we get will depend on the ultimate track of a tropical system we anticipate will move in the Southern Gulf of Mexico at that time. If this tropical system moves into Texas, some part of the state could see 10 inches or more of rainfall during the Monday through Wednesday time frame of next week, but it is way too early to have any specificity of whether this will be Brownsville, Corpus Christi, the Houston area, or elsewhere.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted three areas of interest on its forecast map this morning, but for our purposes the only one that matters is the orange “X” in the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm during the next five days, and nearly all of our reliable model guidance suggests it will become a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday. Whether it becomes a hurricane depends upon several factors, including its interaction with the Yucatan peninsula. This is impossible to predict for now.

I am going to show you two forecast maps for the eventual track of this tropical system. They are ensembles from the GFS model and the European model, and the purpose of this is to demonstrate the considerable uncertainty in track. It is also clear that some kind of storm will very likely be coming to the Mexico mainland or Texas coast early next week, and that areas along and to the north of its track will be on the receiving end of significant tropical moisture. This is why we say that Texas is at risk for heavy rainfall early next week, but we cannot say precisely where.

The GFS model, shown above, is more south than the European model. This would likely keep the heaviest rains south of the Houston region next week. Matt and I, for now, are leaning slightly in favor of this solution as the more realistic solution. But again, our overall confidence is quite low.

The European model brings a storm along a more northerly track about six days from now. This would bring heavier rains to Texas, including potentially the Houston area, next week.

The bottom line is that we need to watch the Gulf of Mexico closely. There are signs that yet another tropical storm may move from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico about a week after this one. We are approaching the peak of hurricane season and the tropics are acting accordingly. We’ll be on top of it for you.

Good morning. We are into the final week of August, and this brings both good and bad news. The good news is that we’re much closer to the end of summer than the beginning. Based upon our climate normals, the warmest stretch of summer in Houston lasts from July 31 through August 8, when the average temperature is 85.8 degrees. (That’s simply an average of the daily high and low temperature). We are, reasonably, about one month from when we can expect fall’s first significant cool front.

The bad news is that we still have about a full month of summer left, and it coincides with the absolute peak of hurricane season for Texas. Although we see no immediate threats to the greater Houston region (read more below), the next few weeks do look active for the Gulf of Mexico. So we’re asking you to hang on for one more month, after which we’ll escape the heat of summer and the main threat of tropical activity.

Monday

Monday will see a continuation of conditions the region experienced over the weekend, which is to say hot and sunny. High temperatures for inland areas could well flirt with 100 degrees, and even coastal areas should be solidly in the low- to mid-90s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with only light southerly winds. This will be a day for care during the hottest, afternoon hours. Overnight lows should be in the upper 70s.

Tuesday

Another hot and sunny day, with high temperatures in the upper 90s. Winds will again be calm.

Wednesday and Thursday

Our overall pattern should begin to change by the middle of the week, as high pressure lifts away from the area. This should bring a few clouds to our skies, and introduce rain chances of perhaps 30 to 40 percent each day during the afternoon hours. This may also help to moderate temperatures slightly, from the upper 90s to mid-90s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend forecast is far from settled, but for now it appears as though the combination of low pressure and increasing levels of tropical moisture should combine for healthy rain chances, especially by Sunday. For now I’d guess we’ll see highs in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies, and at least a 50 percent chance of rain showers each day. Under some scenarios, heavy rain is possible by Sunday, but that will depend to some extent on tropical development, discussed below.

Tropics

After Tropical Storm Henri moved into the northeastern United States this weekend, there are no active systems over water. However that could change later this week as a tropical wave moves into the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center gives this wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next five days.

The global models are generally pretty bullish on this system eventually developing in the Southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and it’s something we’ll be watching closely as it will influence our rain chances this weekend. For now the bulk of these models suggest the storm will come ashore somewhere along the Mexican mainland, south of the Texas border. Although it is far too early to have much confidence in this, such a scenairo would also be unfortunate, give the recent landfall of Hurricane Grace near the resort town of Tecolutla.

After this system, there are hints of more potential activity in the Gulf of Mexico about two weeks from now, which would be consistent with early September. As we said above, the next month is the peak of hurricane season for Texas, so have a plan and be prepared.

Wednesday’s high temperature across much of the metro area, beneath cloudy skies and on-and-off rain showers, peaked at about 90 to 93 degrees for most of us. Temperatures much of the day were in the 80s. While this was not “cool” by any stretch of the imagination, we are definitely bound for much hotter weather. The period from this coming Sunday through Tuesday should bring 100-degree heat for many inland locations.

Thursday

For those still seeking a bit of rainfall, today will be akin to drinking in the last chance saloon. Although atmospheric moisture levels remain fairly elevated, we’ll begin to feel the influence of high pressure expanding into the region. For this reason rain chances will likely be higher—maybe 40 or 50 percent—closer to the coast with lesser chances inland of Interstate 69 and Highway 59. These showers will be hit or miss, but a few isolated areas could pick up a quick inch of rain or so. Skies should otherwise be partly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s, and light southerly winds. Rain chances will drop as the Sun drops to the horizon.

Friday

As high pressure begins to fully assert itself, this should be a warm and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will be on the order of 10 to 20 percent. Winds will be light, out of the south and southeast.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be a classic August weekend, with highs in the upper 90s to possibly 100 degrees by Sunday. Skies will be mostly sunny with generally light winds. Please take care outside during the hottest part of the day.

Next week

The heat remains turned up through Tuesday, with the potential for 100 degree days and lots of sunshine. A few more clouds return by Wednesday or Thursday, and as high pressure eases off we might even see some modest rain chances toward the end of next week. But it’s still going to be hot, y’all.

Tropics

The tropics remain more or less the same. Hurricane Grace has made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, will cross the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and make a final landfall along the Mexico mainland on Friday night, likely as a Category 1 hurricane. There is less certainty about Tropical Storm Henri. The forecast models are really struggling with this system, and there is still some question about whether it will affect the northeastern coast of the United States late this weekend. There are no immediate concerns beyond these two storms.