Eric Berger

Good morning. Overall the forecast story remains the same, with scattered afternoon rain chances this week, a hot and sunny weekend, and then better rain chances next week as a rare August front moves into Texas and approaches our area.

Thursday

It’s rather sultry outside this morning, with temperatures solidly at 80 degrees or above for most of the metro area. Our weather today will continue the pattern we’ve seen for this week, with hot and mostly sunny conditions, and high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Winds today will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. The sea breeze should generate some shower activity late this morning and into the afternoon, but showers should be fairly scattered with one-third or less the metro area seeing rainfall. Lows tonight will again be warm.

Friday

See Thursday’s weather.

Saturday and Sunday

As the influence of high pressure over the plains states expands further, Houston’s temperatures should rise into the upper 90s this weekend, and rain chances will transition from “scattered” to “isolated.” This will be a classic August weekend as we head into August.

Next week

Monday looks hot and sunny again, but then an honest-to-goodness front will push into Texas and move toward the Houston region on Monday night. I want to set expectations accordingly, as this front won’t bring much cooler or drier air. Rather, it should instead drive increased shower activity on Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday of next week, and the increased cloud cover may push highs into the lower 90s. After a hot week some showers and somewhat cooler weather would not be unwelcome.

Good morning. Houston’s summertime pattern will continue for the rest of this week, with hot days and a decent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These storms will be hit or miss—a few locations in the Houston region saw one-half inch of rain on Tuesday afternoon and evening, while most people saw no rain at all.

Wednesday

If the air feels a tiny bit drier this morning you can thank some thunderstorms that developed on the east side of Houston on Tuesday evening. These ushered some slightly cooler air into the region. This may slow development of showers today, but we still expect at least scattered activity later this afternoon and evening. Probably about one third of the area will see at least some brief showers, with a few locations seeing downpours. Highs should get into the mid-90s with light easterly winds. Lows tonight may briefly drop below 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Quite honestly the setup does not change much. Skies will still be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure becomes a little bit more dominant this weekend I think rain chances will lower a bit, but not go away entirely. Mostly, we’re going to see sunshine and hot weather, with highs likely in the upper 90s. August begins on Sunday and yeah, it will feel like it.

Monday and beyond

Monday looks hot and sunny again, but thereafter a dying front approaching Houston from the northeast may act to raise rain chances and slightly lower temperatures. We may be talking highs in the low 90s and rain chances of 50 percent or higher, but at this point it’s difficult to have too much confidence in such a forecast.

Congratulations, Houston. We’ve made it to the hottest time of year, and Mother Nature has responded right on cue. The high temperature reached 99 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Monday, tying our hottest day of the year, when the mercury also hit 99 on June 13. We’ll see plenty of more days in the mid- to upper-90s this week. Fortunately, there will also be at least some scattered showers that may break the heat now and then.

Tuesday

For much of the metro area, temperatures have not fallen below 80 degrees this morning. This is due, in part, to mostly cloudy skies and very light winds. Later today we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with highs likely topping out a couple of degrees cooler than on Monday. Some showers have developed in response to low pressure south of Louisiana, and some rain from this system may eventually work its way into Galveston County later this morning.

The better rain chances—probably about one-in-three for the greater Houston area—will come this afternoon along with daytime heating. This rainfall will probably take the form of a downpour for one area, and nada a mile or two away. The best chances for accumulation are probably inside the Sam Houston Tollway, but rain could really fall anywhere. Storms should continue this evening, before dying off after sunset. Lows tonight may drop into the upper 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect more of the same with partly to mostly sunny days, highs in the mid- to upper-90s, and about a one-in-three chance of rain at your location. These showers, again, will likely fire up during the afternoon hours and die down as the sun sets.

Friday and Saturday

It looks like high pressure may slide a little bit closer to our region by this weekend, and that could reduce rain chances to “isolated” instead of “scattered.” Basically it means the same thing—it probably won’t rain at your house, but it might. And if it does, rains could briefly be heavy. Highs will remain in the mid- to upper-90s with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend may be a little warmer, with sunny skies and low rain chances. Some locations may come close to 100 degrees.

Next week

I don’t have too much confidence in weather next week, the first full week of August. I will say that right now it does not appear as though we’ll be fully in the grasp of high pressure, which means there’s at least a puncher’s chance of rain most days. But with that said, it will be August. And let’s be honest, August is pretty miserable in the 713.

Tropics

Matt will have a full rundown for you later this morning. Things still look pretty good but we’re just now approaching the time when activity starts to kick in, typically.

The dead of summer is nigh. If you look at the climate “normals” for Houston, the span from July 27 to August 20 is the historically warmest time of year when the average high is 95 degrees, and the average low 75 degrees. This period, a little more than three weeks, is when Houston often sees the hottest weather of the year. And after a somewhat cooler start to July, we’ll definitely experience this in the days ahead.

The overall pattern this week is fairly straight forward. The high pressure ridge that made for a hot and sunny weekend will shift slightly north this week, allowing for some scattered afternoon showers, before shifting southward again in time for next weekend.

Monday

Before the high pressure eases northward, Houston will see a hot and sunny day today a lot like this past weekend. We can expect highs in the upper 90s with only very light west or southwesterly winds. Lows tonight will only fall into the upper 70s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Here’s what we know about the mid-week weather for the upper Texas coast. The atmosphere will be a little bit more amenable to rain showers, but rains should still be more “miss” than “hit,” and shower activity will be virtually nil during the overnight and morning hours. So basically these will be mostly sunny days except when they’re not, your daily chance of rain is probably about one-in-three, and highs will likely reach into the mid-90s. Nights should be mostly clear and sultry.

Saturday and Sunday

For now we expect high pressure to build more directly over the region this weekend, which should reduce rain chances. For now, therefore, our expectation is highs in the upper 90s with mostly sunny skies. Since Sunday is the first day of August, that seems appropriate.

Tropics

Overall, the Atlantic tropics remain quiet. A system near the coast of Georgia is increasingly less likely to develop, and across the rest of the Atlantic basin the chance of something else forming this week is low. Matt will have more in a tropics overview tomorrow, but the news for now is favorable. We have about two more months in which we need to watch things closely.