Eric Berger

Good morning. This post will discuss our rain chances toward the end of the week, a modest cool front this weekend, and also dig into Hurricane Sally, which is nearing the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and will bring devastating flood impacts there.

Tuesday

Today is going to be just plain hot. Most (but not all, I know) readers are dearly looking forward to the end of summer. But we’re not going to find it today, with clear skies and high temperatures pushing up into the mid-90s. We’ll see slight northerly winds on the back side of Sally’s circulation, but it’s going to be just plain humid and summer-like. Overnight temperatures will likely push into the upper 70s across the metro area to low 80s right on the coast. There is a slight chance, perhaps 20 percent, of some afternoon and evening showers to provide some relief.

Wednesday

Wednesday should be a lot like Tuesday—hot, mostly sunny, and with only a slight chance of afternoon showers. If you like summer in Houston, you’re in luck!

Thursday and Friday

The overall pattern begins to change by Wednesday night or so, as an atmospheric disturbance nears the area. This should allow for the development of some clouds in the sky, and a healthy chance of rain showers. It appears as though rain chances will be highest on the western side of Houston—some areas may see on the order of half an inch of rain, maybe? Temperatures should moderate slightly, into the low 90s, and overnight lows will drop a few degrees as well.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re now pretty confident that some sort of front will push into Houston on Friday night or Saturday morning, but we still don’t have great confidence in the details. At this point it’s probably best to temper expectations. Yes, we’ll see some noticeably drier air. Yes, this should shave a few points of high and low temperatures. But no, at least right now, we can’t definitely say it will feel like fall in Houston. However, the good news is that we don’t expect to go back to highs in the mid-90s and lows near 80 after this front passes. Summer’s days are numbered as we should see more fronts after this one.

Hurricane Sally

Matt will have all the details on an incredibly action-packed tropics in a post later this morning, and you’ll want to be sure and check that out. Regarding Sally, the good news is that the storm not intensified over night, and remains a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. As wind shear begins to increase, Sally should not get a whole lot stronger over the next 24 hours before it makes landfall. But that’s where the good news ends.

Sally is only moving to the northwest at 2 mph. At present the storm remains a few dozen miles east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Two days from now, on Thursday morning, it should still be over southern Alabama. As anyone who lives in Houston knows, this is a recipe for extremely heavy rainfall. This will occur primarily over southern Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle over the next several days, with isolated totals of 20 inches or more possible. A large swath of heavy rain will then traverse Alabama and northern Georgia along Sally’s eventual track. This will of course lead to devastating flooding.

Good morning. The primary weather issues we’re watching this week are the approach of Tropical Storm Sally toward the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts, local rain chances, and the potential for a modest cool front to arrive this weekend. The latter should bring slightly cooler temperatures and some welcome drier air.

Monday

The area of low pressure off the Texas coast that drove widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday has moved south, and thus the chance for rain today will be less. Some coastal areas, and locations far west of Houston, may still see scattered showers but for the most part we should be dry. High temperatures should otherwise get into the low- to mid-90s with partly sunny skies. Yes, it will be another hot, summer-like day. Winds will be out of the north at about 10 mph—but this isn’t due to a front or anything, it’s because we’ll be on the backside of distant Sally. More on this storm below. Lows tonight will probably drop into the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As the region remains on the backside of Sally, we should see a persistent, if light northerly wind. This should help to limit cloud cover during the middle of the week. This, in turn, will allow highs to push into the mid-90s on Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential for only some isolated showers. So yeah, hot.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week should see a slightly more perturbed atmosphere, and this could push rain chances into the 40 percent range, or so, for both days. We will expect that partly sunny skies will allow highs to reach 90 degrees, or the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

It will be a fairly close thing, but for now we generally think a front will reach the coast on Saturday. Our weekend forecast will depend upon the timing and strength of the front, as well as on whether it actually makes it. But overall, we’d anticipate highs somewhere in the upper 80s, with lows of around 70 degrees—areas inland may see 60s but it’s hard to say for sure. The drier air should be noticeable, however, making for pleasant mornings and evenings this weekend. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny.

Tropical Storm Sally

Fortunately we have not seen too much intensification with Sally overnight—this is something we feared might happen. It is now a 65-mph tropical storm. Although Sally still has about a day to intensify, this relative lack of organization means it is mostly likely the system comes ashore as a Category 1 hurricane. The current track, just east of New Orleans, would spare the city the worst in terms of storm surge and winds. Our primary concern remains the potential for very heavy rainfall from southeastern Louisiana through the Mississippi and Alabama coastal areas. Later in the week, the slow-moving Sally could produce very heavy rains across much of the state of Alabama.

The tropics remain incredibly active at this time—Tropical Storm Teddy has formed far out to sea, where it will curve north away from the United States—and we’ll continue to watch things closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico where the waters are quite warm.

Good morning, Houston. As we watch the region’s first front approach our area, peter out, and die, I wanted to remind you one final time of Reliant’s sweepstakes to win a free AC System. We’ve already had one winner, but there’s still a second chance to win if you enter by next Tuesday. You can find an entry form, and details of the giveaway right here. It’s an entire, brand-new system—quite a deal.

Thursday

The aforementioned front has made it through College Station, and is pushing into areas such as Katy. It may make it all the way to northern parts of the I-45 corridor this morning, but it is quickly weakening. As the front stalls we should see showers develop over central and eastern parts of the area later this morning and during the afternoon. It will be the same drill as recent days, with hit-or-miss thunderstorms. High temperatures will vary widely today, from upper 70s far west of Houston to low 90s along the coast. As drier air filters in to the region, lows on Friday morning may be a few degrees cooler than normal for most of the metro region.

Friday and Saturday

Any semblance of the front will be gone by Friday, as summer returns in full force. Both of these days should see partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid- to upper 90s. Rain chances will be lower, likely with only a few isolated to scattered showers developing during the afternoon.

Sunday through Wednesday

An upper level low pressure system will combine with a surge of tropical moisture during the first half of next week to bring better rain chances across the entire region, probably beginning later on Sunday. Right now we’re not looking at anything extreme, but I think most of Houston can probably expect to see 0.5 to 2 inches of rain between Sunday and Wednesday or so. Increased cloud cover should also help to keep highs by Sunday or Monday in the low 90s. Overall, warm, humid, summer-like weather will continue at least into next weekend.

Tropics

There are a couple of yellow blobs on the National Hurricane Center’s outlook for the next five days near the Gulf of Mexico, with 20 and 30 percent chances to develop into tropical depressions or storms over the next five days. Right now we don’t anticipate either developing into strong tropical systems, but these will be helping to drive the rain chances we mentioned earlier, beginning perhaps on Sunday.