After a June with exactly normal temperatures, July is starting out hot

June ended up with an average temperature of 82.5 degrees—which is bang on the normal temperature for Bush Intercontinental Airport over the last three decades. Thanks to persistent cloud cover and days of rain, the second half of the month was generally cooler after a hot start to the month. That may make the onset of July, and more typical summertime heat, a little more difficult to bear. For although this week’s heat won’t be exceptional, it will be a bit warmer than normal for July, which is to say hot and humid.

Wednesday

It is awfully sticky outside this morning, with temperatures generally at or above 80 degrees with dewpoints not far behind. There is a bit of dust in the air, as evidenced by the photos above. Some lingering clouds and a bit of moisture may help generate a few isolated showers this morning, but for the most part we should see clearing skies and soaring temperatures today, with highs rising into the mid-90s. Winds will be prominent out of the south, gusting up to 20 mph. Low temperatures Wednesday night will again struggle to drop below 80 degrees for much of the metro area.

Texas is going to be hot this week. Here is a forecast for Friday’s highs. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday and Friday

Welcome to summer. With high pressure in control of the region’s weather we can expect a pair of hot and sunny days. Look for temperatures to rise into the upper 90s for most of the region, with plenty of humidity pushing the heat index above 100 degrees. These are the kinds of days when you’ll step outside in the afternoon and say, “Oh yeah, now I remember what summer in Houston can feel like.”

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The start of July will feel a lot like July in Houston

Good morning. There are few surprises in today’s forecast, as Houston is likely to remain hot and humid through the rest of the week. The trend will be toward hotter and sunnier weather throughout the work week, with early July feeling a lot like July should feel. A few showers may crop up on Independence Day, but the better rain chances likely will wait until Sunday or Monday.

It’s an extremely muggy morning, with apparent temperatures near 90 degrees in Houston. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

A few, light showers have popped up to the north of Houston this morning, but we expect these to be transient. Thanks to a southerly wind gusting up to 25mph, moisture continues to pump into the region, and this should keep our skies partly to mostly cloudy today. In turn, these clouds will limit high temperatures today to the low 90s. These clouds will also make for another very warm night, with overnight lows unlikely to fall below 80 degrees for most of the area.

Wednesday

A similar day to Tuesday in terms of humidity and southerly winds. However, as high pressure continues to build over the region this should limit the ability of air to rise, and accordingly cut down on cloud cover. Highs will rise into the low- to mid-90s with non-existent rain chances. Additionally, we should see another plume of Saharan dust move into the region, although it will not be as thick as what we saw last Friday and Saturday.

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As pressures increase over Houston, so will temperatures

After the unsettled nature of last week’s weather—from heavy rains to heavy dust—this week holds less intrigue. We’ll see plenty of heat and especially humidity, but likely little rain at least until next weekend.

Monday

Mostly cloudy skies this morning should give way to partly sunny conditions later today. Highs will reach about 90 degrees for most of the area. Perhaps the two most noticeable features will be winds, which may gust from the south at up to 25 mph, and the humidity. Dewpoint temperatures are incredibly sticky this morning, in the upper 70s. By this evening a new plume of Saharan dust will begin to spread across Texas, but it is not as thick as the dust that reached the region last Friday.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, with gusty southerly winds and a mix of sunshine and clouds. Highs will reach the low 90s, with rain chances near zero.

Virtually no rainfall is expected in Houston this week, through Friday. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday and Thursday

High pressure should really start assert control over our region’s weather. This will likely make for a pair of hot and sunny days, with temperatures in the mid-90s.

Friday

High pressure will begin to back off slightly, but it may not be immediately recognizable in our weather. Expect another hot and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s. Some additional moisture may push in from the Gulf of Mexico, so there may be a slight chance of showers during the afternoon—but probably not.

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A break in the storms this evening, but storms may return early Friday

Good evening. We wanted to apprise you of the latest we have for the overnight forecast. Some storms remain to the west and north of Houston as of 6pm CT, but these should wind down during the next couple of hours. Unlike the previous two nights, as of now we do not anticipate any widespread showers or heavy rainfall on Thursday night or the wee hours of Friday morning.

However, the forecast models suggest a deeper area of moisture will push inland near Matagorda Bay or Galveston a couple of hours before sunrise on Friday, and this should bring some additional showers and thunderstorms into Houston throughout the morning. We don’t expect anything too extreme from these storms, with most people seeing 1-2 inches of rain at most.

HRRR model forecast for radar reflectivity at 5am CT Friday. (Weather Bell)

Obviously we’ll have a better handle on Friday’s weather by tomorrow morning, when Matt provides you with an update. But I wanted to let you know that—knock on wood—most of tonight should be relatively sedate for the Houston area, weather wise. It would certainly make for a nice change. And yes, we hope we’re not eating these words tomorrow morning.