As I type this, it is 5:55am and already beginning to get light outside. Some readers will surely disagree, but such early sunrises in June always play havoc with my sleep schedule. Fortunately (for me, at least), we have already passed the earliest sunrise of the year, and beginning Thursday the sunrise time for Houston will move from 6:20am to 6:21am, and grow about 20 seconds later every day.
Tuesday
With decent atmospheric moisture levels in place, we may again see some scattered activity fire up on the radar this afternoon along the sea breeze. Most of the modeling indicates any storms should be fairly short-lived, with better chances to the east and northeast of Houston. The bottom line is that although rain chances are low today—probably around 20 percent or less—they are higher than most of the rest of the week. Highs should reach the low- to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.
Houston should see mostly sunny skies through Friday or Saturday. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
Not much to say about these days with mostly sunny skies, highs in the low- to mid-90s and lows in the 70s. High pressure will probably prevent any showers from popping up.
Saturday and Sunday
This pattern begins to change this weekend as the high pressure system over our region finally begins to weaken, allowing for the development of some scattered clouds on Saturday, and perhaps more widespread clouds on Sunday. This may also lead to some better rain chances in the 30 to 40 percent range, although accumulations looks modest. Highs will remain in the low 90s.
Next week
Both the European and GFS model are indicating the possibility of more rainfall next week, perhaps somewhere in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. It’s possible that we may see some heavy rainfall, but the details are sketchy at this point.
Good morning. High pressure will dominate our weather this week, but it won’t be completely oppressive. Summertime highs typically peak in the upper 90s and lows in the upper 70s to 80 degrees in August. But this week, we should see more June-like weather with highs in the low- to mid-90s, with overnight temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. Oh, and if you’ve stepped outside this morning, you’ve already noticed that the humidity is baaack. That should be a constant companion for at least the next three months. Speaking of heat and humidity, if you have not yet signed up for Reliant’s AC Sweepstakes, you’re missing out on a chance to win a free AC System.
Monday
Some isolated showers developed to the southwest and northeast of Houston on Sunday, and we should see a similar pattern today as some higher atmospheric moisture levels help a few showers to form. While we will probably see these fast-moving showers this afternoon, most of us will just be sunny. Look for highs in the low 90s with light southeast winds. Overnight lows should fall below 75 degrees for most areas except the coast.
Texas will be in the 90s on Tuesday. At least it’s not the 100s yet. (Pivotal Weather)
Tuesday
A similar day to Monday, with a chance of isolated showers popping up during the afternoon hours. Highs should reach the low- to mid-90s. Winds will be calm, to very slight from the southeast. Between the lack of wind, and the high humidity, it will feel very warm during the afternoon hours.
Conditions this morning are spectacular across Houston, with temperatures in the 60s for most locations. Cleveland and Conroe hit the upper 50s! Dewpoints at many locations on Wednesday dipped below 50 degrees, a real rarity for June. Happily, this pattern should be with us through most of the weekend before humidity levels really start to stack up again beginning next week. After that, plenty of heat is on the way as well, with sunny skies.
Thursday
Expect sunny conditions with highs in the low 90s. A light wind from the northeast at 5 to 10 mph will keep the air dry, and help nighttime temperatures cool again into the upper 60s for most areas.
Friday and Saturday
These days will be similar to Thursday, with mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low 90s. Winds will remain from the northeast. Lows should reach the 60s for inland areas.
Expect sunny skies to prevail for at least the next seven days. (Weather Bell)
Sunday
The second half of the weekend should be slightly warmer, with a little more humidity. Expect sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s. Nighttime temperatures will creep back above 70 degrees for most locations.
Monday and beyond
Winds will return to come from offshore by Monday, and you know what that means. Temperatures will rise back into at least the mid-90s with heat indices likely in the 100s due to the humidity. We’ll be back to very hot, summer-like conditions in Houston. High pressure should dampen rain chances—had to use that word because it’s the only wet stuff in the forecast for next week—until at least Friday or Saturday. We should see mostly sunny skies until then, as well.
Nearly three months have passed since we first addressed COVID-19 and the then-unknown effect of weather on its spread in warmer climates. Since that time we have learned some things, and have three months of data to draw upon in Texas. From this we can conclude that although weather may have some modest effect, it is not likely to have a significant dampening effect on the transmission of the disease.
COVID-19 and Texas
We’ll start this post by looking at the spread of COVID-19 in Texas. I encourage you to visit this site, put together by Peter James Walker, which provides amazing visualizations of coronavirus data (from the Texas Department of State Health Services) with regard to testing, positive cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. This allows us to understand trends in the data.
COVID-19 data in Texas. (covidcharts.tech)
Here we can see that cases are more or less increasing in line with more testing across the state. However, after initially dropping, the share of positive tests seems to be increasing, up to 7 percent from 5 percent about one month ago. So far, at least, deaths have not caught up to cases. This may be due to better care, or some other factors. It’s just hard to know.
What concerns us is that hospitalizations have reached a record high in Texas for COVID-19. You may have questions about the test data, or false positives, but hospitalizations for COVID-19 are measurement that is difficult to fudge. The trend is upward, and real. We are still a ways away from reaching hospital and ICU capacity in Houston or across the state, but the concern is where does the trend go from here? I don’t think anyone can say.
Weather and COVID-19
What we can say is that this spike in hospitalizations (and thus, severe cases) due to the virus is occurring at the very moment when summer heat is beginning to descend on Texas. The state’s average temperature in June reaches 90 degrees. Much of the state is humid most of the time in summer. And still, the disease is spreading. In fact, based upon the hospitalization data, it seems clear that COVID-19 is more widespread now in Texas than at any time before. The disease is spiking even harder in other, similarly warm states, such as Arizona.
Houston’s temperatures have gone up, as cases have gone up. (National Weather Service)
This supports the emerging science viewpoint on weather and COVID 19, that summer heat will not be much of a factor in slowing its initial spread through the human population.
Seven-day average of COVID-19 case count in Houston region. (Houston Chronicle/Flourish)
The public health messaging from the World Health Organization and the U.S. government amidst this pandemic has not been consistent or particularly good. However, the data are telling us that COVID-19 is still spreading in Texas despite the heat. It may become even more widespread this summer as we (understandably) seek to return to a business-as-normal posture. What seems prudent is the continued wearing of masks in locations where social distancing is not possible. When you wear a mask it may be uncomfortable, you may think it makes you look funny. But you’re also telling the person next to you that you value them, and want to do your part to prevent spreading COVID-19 too far.
Sponsor Note from Reliant
To support our neighbors across Texas, Reliant has committed $765,000, including $440,000 to the Greater Houston area, for local community relief funds, initiatives to protect frontline workers and those adversely impacted by COVID-19, and treatment/prevention solutions. The donations are part of our community program, Reliant Gives, to provide support across the state of Texas and our parent company, NRG Energy, Inc.’s $2 million donation to pandemic relief efforts. Learn more about our commitment and customer support resources here. Now more than ever, we’re working to light the way and keep Texans powered and connected to one another.
