Eric Berger

Good morning. After Friday’s unexpectedly widespread storms—with flash flooding in areas such as League City, Seabrook, Kemah, and elsewhere—conditions early Saturday are going more to form. A fairly strong squall line with gusty winds and briefly intense rainfall has pushed through most of the metro area as of 4:30am CT, and it should be well east of the metro area by sunrise. It has generally dropped 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain.

This should be the worst of the region’s weather, but the upper-level low pressure system we’ve been talking about remains just to the north of our region. This should continue to drive showers and possibly some thunderstorms through the morning hours and into the early afternoon hours. These storms that develop should be weaker and less widespread as they move from west to east. Accumulations following the squall line’s passage should be less than one inch for most parts of the metro area today.

A lesser chance of showers and storms will persist through the overnight hours and into Sunday. The greater likelihood of development will be over Montgomery County and points north, away from the coast and areas hardest hit on Friday. Sunday should see partly sunny skies in addition to the possibility of some occasional light to moderate showers.

By Monday the drier air should take effect leading to sunnier days and clear nights. This should have the effect of dropping lows into the upper 60s, making for quite pleasant evenings and mornings. Our advice is to enjoy the relatively low humidity while it lasts.

Houston will remain in a fairly wet pattern through the weekend, with the greatest likelihood of rain on Saturday. While we are watching for the potential of widespread, heavy rainfall, right now we think rain totals will be manageable for most over the next four days with amounts probably in the range of 1 to 3 inches. What we’re concerned about is more localized rainfall amounts, which could reach 5 inches or higher.

Thursday

It’s quite the muggy morning for mid-May, with overnight low temperatures not having fallen below 75 degrees for much of the area. We’re seeing some showers develop offshore and these should migrate inland during the daytime—most areas probably have about a 40 percent chance of rain. These should remain fairly scattered and fade out by this evening. Otherwise, skies should see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs pushing into the mid- or upper-80s depending on how much sun breaks through this afternoon. Winds will be light, out of the south. Low temperatures Thursday night will again be quite warm.

Friday

On Friday Houston will remain in this pattern where there’s some lingering high pressure, but not enough to stamp out showers. As a result we’re likely to see weather similar to Thursday, with some thunderstorms breaking through, but nothing too widespread or organized. Highs should again be in the upper 80s.

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Good morning. You may have seen that a subtropical storm is likely to form off the southeastern United States during the next several days. It presents no threat to land, and it’s not all that uncommon for these kinds of tropical systems to form in May. However, the system should serve as a reminder that Atlantic hurricane season is coming, and forecasters generally believe this season has a good chance of being fairly active. Here is some basic advice from FEMA about making a plan for this year’s season.

Wednesday

If you checked the radar to the west of Houston on Tuesday evening it looked fearsome at times, but the storms waned considerably as they moved into the Houston area. (Well to the southwest of the city, in Jackson County, as much as 8 inches of rain fell in one location). Accumulations across Houston were generally about one-quarter inch, give or take. Some additional rain is possible today, although we think any showers will be fairly scattered. Skies will see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs probably pushing up into the mid-80s. Overnight lows will only drop into the low 70s.

Thursday

Thursday should bring more of the same. Although we’re under a moist, southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, there’s just no great trigger for showers. So while we’ll see some gray skies, we don’t think any showers that pop up will be too organized, or last for too long.

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