Eric Berger

Good morning. We hope everyone enjoys today’s absolutely stunning weather, from a cool morning through a pleasant, sunny day, and clear skies this evening. We’ll have more of the same on Wednesday before confidence in the forecast plummets heading into the weekend. Let’s discuss why below.

Tuesday

As mentioned, today will be a grand affair, with sunny skies and high temperatures around 80 degrees. With dry air, lows on Tuesday night will cool down to about the same temperature as on Monday night.

Wednesday

As high pressure moves off to the east on Wednesday, the region will begin to open up to an onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. But daytime conditions will still be quite pleasant, with sunny skies and highs around 80 degrees again. Wednesday night lows should get into the 60s for all but the immediate coast.

Thursday and Friday

And here, the divergence begins. The forecast models are struggling with how to handle the evolution of a large area of low pressure over the southwestern United States. One camp of models, led by the GFS model, brings this system eastward pretty quickly, and drives a strong cold front into Houston on Friday. Under this scenario, we may see a smattering of rain as the front blows through, with much colder weather afterward. The second camp of models, led by the European forecast model, holds up the front, allowing a surge of tropical moisture to push into Texas on Friday and Saturday. Under this scenario, Friday is rainy and muggy.

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The high temperature on both Saturday and Sunday topped out at 90 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, making for a warm weekend. If you’re tired of Houston’s long, long summer—the region had its first 90-degree day back on April 9 of this year—the good news is that we’re probably done with 90-degree days for 2019. In fact, we should mostly be in the 70s for this coming week and weekend.

Monday

A line of storms will push through Houston at around sunrise, or a little before, on Monday morning. A few of these storms are fairly strong, but the line is moving from northwest to southeast fairly quickly, so we don’t have any flooding concerns. Most areas should see about one inch of rain. Unfortunately the storms will hit during the morning commute for some people. The front should be off the coast by or before noon. In the wake of the front, highs today should hold in the 70s, with most of Houston falling into the upper 50s on Monday night with clearing skies.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of gorgeous days, with cool mornings in the upper 50s (except along the coast), mostly sunny skies, and highs in the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees. An onshore flow resumes on Wednesday night, which should nudge lows into the mid-60s.

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Houston will enjoy one more day of fall-like weather before we transition back into warmer weather for the weekend. But by Monday or so we should enter a more prolonged period of cooler, fall-like weather.

Thursday

After starting out in the 50s for all but the immediate coast, today will rise into the low- to mid-70s. Houston is not going to get warmer than that due to a cool, northerly breeze as well as fairly persistent cloud cover. Low temperatures on Thursday night should be similar to Wednesday night, albeit a degree or two warmer.

Friday

As the onshore winds return Friday, temperatures will warm some. But this still will be a fairly nice day, with highs of around 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies.

Saturday

The first day of the weekend will be quite warm. As I’ve been suggesting, this weekend will probably be the last time the Houston region has a chance for high temperatures in the 90s this calendar year. (Houston has never hit 90 degrees, on record, after October 29th). In any case, Saturday, will be hot and sunny, with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

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Good morning. After a hot day Tuesday—high temperatures peaked at 92 degrees—a cool front is pushing through Houston this morning and will be off the coast shortly after sunrise. The front has generally brought 0.25 to 1.0 inch of rain to the area. We’ll see some roller coaster weather through the weekend, with cold then warmer days, before a more prolonged stretch of cooler conditions next week.

Wednesday

Some light rain may linger behind the front’s passage, but for the most part today should simply bring gray skies and at-times gusty northerly winds. High temperatures today will likely stall out in the mid- to upper-70s for most of the area. There’s not an overly amount of cooler air with this front, so overnight lows may drop into the upper 50s for inland areas, but remain in the low 60s near the coast as skies stay cloudy Wednesday night.

Thursday

This should be an awfully nice fall day, with highs generally in the low 70s and partly sunny skies. Low temperatures Thursday night will be similar to Wednesday night, albeit perhaps a degree or two warmer.

Friday

Warmer conditions as the onshore flow resumes, but highs should still be capped in the low 80s, with mostly sunny skies. We can’t rule out the possibility of a few isolated showers.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend looks warm and sunny. Expect highs in the upper 80s with very little chance of rainfall. Saturday and Sunday may be the region’s last, realistic shot at hitting 90 degrees this calendar year.

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