Eric Berger

Sunday’s rainfall almost certainly marked the last significant precipitation of 2019 for the greater Houston area. The region experienced some extreme rainfall, punctuated by Tropical Storm Imelda in September. But overall, Houston came in near normal with annual rainfall—receiving a total of 51.93 inches at Bush Intercontinental Airport (the region averages just north of 48 inches per year). The wettest year on record came in 2017, driven by Hurricane Harvey, with 79.69 inches. Here’s the climate graphic, with Houston’s rainfall totals on the bottom:

The story is considerably more interesting to the east of Houston, in Beaumont, which bore the brunt of Imelda. That region, based upon its official monitoring station at Jack Brooks Regional Airport, has recorded 85.46 inches of rain in 2019. But this ranks only third in annual totals, behind 2017 (104.30 inches) and 2018 (88.75 inches), based on 117 years of data.

It seems pretty staggering that Beaumont’s three wettest years all occurred within the last years. It is difficult not to believe some kind of climate signal must exist in this data, but I will leave that analysis to actual scientists. Needless to say, this has been the wettest three-year period in the recorded history of Beaumont. Here’s hoping to more normal weather in the years ahead.

Now, on to the forecast.

Monday

Not much to say about today’s weather, which will be splendid in the wake of Sunday’s cool front. Look for sunny skies, with highs in the low 60s, and light northwesterly winds. Overnight lows will get down into the low 40s in the city of Houston—warmer to the north, cooler along the coast.

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Good morning—we hope your Christmas was splendid, and that the rest of the holiday season is wonderful. Unfortunately our forecast will be rather un-festive until Sunday when sunshine and more winter-like weather returns.

Thursday

Fog is the word of the day, with quarter-mile or less visibility across much of the area with the exception of Galveston, Chambers, and Brazoria counties. With calm winds, clouds could persist well into the mid-morning before finally clearing out some. High temperatures today will rise into the mid-70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures Thursday night are unlikely to fall below 60 degrees for much of the area, setting up favorable conditions once again for fog development—although likely not so dense as Thursday morning.

Friday

After any fog burns off, this should be a gray, humid day, with high temperatures again likely topping out in the mid-70s for much of the region. A few very scattered, brief rain showers are possible. But mostly, the rains should hold off. Friday night will be quite warm, with lows likely only falling into the low 60s for most of the area as clouds persist.

Saturday

This will be another day quite a bit like Friday, although rain chances will be a bit better. However things get more interesting on Saturday night, as a cold front pushes through the region. There will be plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with, so the only thing that may inhibit rain chances is a capping inversion that prevents warm air at the surface from rising. The cap likely is to be weaker north of Interstate 10, while possibly holding on a bit longer near the coast. Bottom line? Expect widespread totals of 0.25 to 1.0 inch of rain for inland areas, and perhaps around 0.25 to 0.50 inches closer to the coast from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning.

Sunday

Skies should clear quickly, leaving a lovely winter day with sunshine and highs in the mid-60s and lows probably the 40s.

Monday

See Sunday.

New Year’s Eve and beyond

So the period from New Year’s Eve through the end of next week is muddled. For now we think New Year’s Eve looks decently sunny, but that could change by the evening as we get into the late-night festivities. New Year’s Day (Wednesday) and Thursday both have the potential to be fairly wet and cool, with (as a very rough estimate) 1-2 inches of rain and highs of perhaps around 60 degrees. In any case, it may well be a happy beginning to the new year for those of you seeking rainfall.

Good morning. After a fine, sunny weekend we will have continued sunshine through Christmas Day before some clouds and eventually some light rain returns toward the end of this week. Truth be told conditions this week look pretty mild, so unless something changes dramatically Matt and I are going to take Christmas Eve and Christmas Day off. We’ll be back on Thursday.

Monday

The only real weather concern we have for the first couple of days this week is some minor fog in the mornings. Aside from that, look for exceptional weather today, with highs in the upper 60s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, so really there should be nothing to mar outdoors activities. Low temperatures tonight will fall into low 40s north of Houston, mid- to upper-40s in the city, and low 50s closer to the coast.

Tuesday

Look for more mostly sunny weather, with highs of around 70 degrees. Winds will be very light. This should be another exceptional day.

Christmas Day

Lows should start out around 50 degrees for most on Christmas morning, with a few clouds as the influence of high pressure begins to wane. However, we still expect mostly sunny skies throughout the afternoon hours, with lows on Christmas night dropping into the 50s.

Thursday through the weekend

After a long string of weekends with at least one mostly sunny day, it looks like we may break the streak this weekend. Beginning on Thursday, we should see the return of mostly cloudy skies, and this probably will persist through Sunday. The details of the forecast for the end of the week are hazy, but we can probably expect highs in the 70s, with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. Rain chances will pick up to around 40 percent by Saturday and Sunday, but for now accumulations look slight, well below one-half inch. A weak front will probably move through at some point to provide moderately cooler weather.

New Year’s Eve

Our very early New Year’s Eve forecast calls for temperatures in the 40s as the New Year moves into Houston. Right now there is no strong signal for rain, so hopefully the festivities are dry. We’ll have to see.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of our readers!

Good morning—and for most of you its quite the cold one. Temperatures have fallen to freezing, or below, for most of the region except for the coast and the central Houston urban core (click the map below for details). Outlying areas such as Conroe, Cleveland, and Dayton have recorded temperatures in the upper 20s this morning. This should be the last of the really cold nights for awhile.

Thursday

Winds are generally calm this morning, and as high pressure moves off, this will open the region to a more easterly flow. This somewhat more moist flow should allow for the development of some clouds later today, and especially tonight. Highs today should reach about 60 degrees, give or take, with light easterly winds. As clouds build overnight, lows should only fall into the mid-40s

Friday

The forecast for the first part of the weekend has changed somewhat. As atmospheric moisture levels rise, and an upper-level system in the atmosphere provides the impetus for rising air, we’re going to see some decent rain chances. However, most of the region will probably stay dry throughout the day Friday—the best rain chances appear to be west of Harris County. Expect cloudy skies, and a high of around 60 degrees. Scattered, light rain should gradually spread into the greater Houston region during the overnight hours, into Saturday morning.

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