Eric Berger

The big story this morning, and for the next couple of mornings, is fog with warm, muggy air lingering over colder waters. A dense fog advisory is in effect until 10am for Monday morning. We’re also ready to declare that Houston will see more no more freezes this season, and that despite some cooler weather during the second half of this week, winter is effectively over for our region.

Monday

After the fog burns off, today will be a mostly cloudy, warm day with temperatures likely rising to around 80 degrees. Some very light rain will be possible across the region, but chances are only about 10 to 20 percent. Rain chances will be a bit better tonight, but again anything that falls should be light and misty.

Rodeo weather

Temperatures going into the show this evening will be in the upper 70s, and while rain chances aren’t zero, they are quite low. Expect light southeasterly winds and high humidity. Post-show temperatures will be down around 70, with misty rain possible, but unlikely. Don’t expect to see many, if any stars—at least outside NRG Stadium.

Tuesday

Fog will very likely be a problem again this morning. Then, we’ll be in for another warm, mostly gray day, with highs again near 80. Rain chances will be slightly better, again with misty rain mostly likely what falls from the sky. Southerly winds will pick up later in the day, gusting up to 20mph by the evening.

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As the forecast for the next several days becomes more clear, unfortunately it means that our skies will be quite unclear. Which is to say cloudy. Very cloudy. Just looking at the “total cloud cover” forecast from the GFS model this morning, skies are forecast to be 98 percent cloudy (or greater) from now through Wednesday morning—with the exception of a brief period Saturday night. So that’s six days of gray skies, and I’m afraid not much help for it.

Friday

It’s quite warm across the Houston region this morning, as temperatures for some parts of the city have yet to fall below 70 degrees. Cloud should limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-70s today, but it will sure feel humid outside. Some scattered showers, mostly of the light variety, will be possible throughout the day. Accumulations should not be much above a tenth of an inch, if that. Lows tonight will again be very warm for this time of year.

Rodeo weather

Temperatures will be warm, in the low 70s, walking into the show this evening. Relative humidity will be above 80 percent, and we can’t rule out a misty rain before the show, but more likely than not it will just be gray. After the concert, temperatures won’t have dropped much, perhaps down to around 70, and while rain chances will be lower (about 20 percent) they won’t be zero. Again, any rain that falls should be light.

Saturday

A cold front will be sweeping into Texas this weekend, but the bulk of the drier and cooler air will be shunted north of Houston. So, too, should most of the inclement weather.

Therefore while some light rain will be possible Saturday morning, and maybe a thunderstorm or too, for the most part we don’t expect much action in the city and nearby suburbs. The day itself should be warm, in the upper 70s. It’s possible parts of Houston will see some clearing skies during the afternoon and evening, but don’t blink or you’ll miss the blue sky. Rain chances fall to near zero Saturday night.

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Instead of our normal diurnal pattern, temperatures have risen across the area since midnight for Houston, generally from the lower 50s to the upper 50s. This is indicative of the much warmer airmass that has begun moving into the area, and which may lead to some potentially unsettled weather over the next few days, especially on Saturday. Unfortunately, the weekend weather doesn’t look exactly ace, although Sunday has some potential.

Thursday

Today will be a gray affair, with intermittent drizzle, especially closer to the coast. Some light rain showers will be possible, but for the most part any rain today will be misty. Dewpoints will continue to rise today, leading to much higher humidity, as temperatures rise up to around 70 degrees today.  Low temperatures tonight will not fall much, probably only into the mid-60s.

Rodeo weather

Temperatures will be in the upper 60s at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this evening, with cloudy skies, and light winds. There’s about a 40 percent chance of a light, misty rain, which likely will end before the show ends. Temperatures after the concert will be about the same, as will the 100 percent cloud cover.

Friday

Friday should be similar to Thursday, although 5-7 degrees warmer, and with a healthy chance of morning fog as warmer air moves over cooler waters. Highs will be in the upper 70s, with more light rain showers. Again, accumulations should, at most, be measured in a tenth or two of an inch of rainfall.

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Temperatures have fallen to near freezing across most of Houston, but stayed just above it for the most part except for the usual cold spots such as Conroe and Huntsville. Now, our late winter roller coaster will turn back upward, with a warming trend through Saturday. After today, we’ll also say goodbye to the sunshine until Sunday, at least.

Wednesday

Winds remain out of the north, or northeast this morning, but they’re going to gradually swing to the east, and the southeast later today which will presage a warm-up in our weather after Monday’s descent into the depths of winter. Highs today should climb into the 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies, and with relatively light winds it will feel a fair deal warmer than Tuesday. Clouds return this evening, and there’s a slight chance of drizzle as early as the pre-midnight hours tonight. Lows likely will fall only to around 50 degrees.

Rodeo weather

This should be one of the nicest evenings for the rodeo so far, if a bit chilly. Temperatures going into the show should be in the low 50s, with mixed skies. Coming out afterward, temperatures won’t have budged much, but skies will probably be mostly cloudy by that time. We can’t rule out some light, misty rain after the show, but chances are less than 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday

Wednesday’s wind shift will drive big temperature differences toward the end of the work week. These will be mostly gray days, with temperatures in the 70s, and dewpoints nearly as high so we can expect to feel the humidity. Overnight lows will only fall into the 60s. Some light rain is possible both days—30 to 40 percent—but accumulations should be slight as the heavier rain probably will hold off until Saturday.

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