Anticipating a mild week, we look ahead to Thanksgiving

Good morning. We’ll have one more night in the 50s tonight before warmer weather returns—Houston has not had a nighttime temperature in the 60s since November 5th. Cooler weather should arrive just before the weekend. Don’t forget, we’re continuing our annual fundraiser this week—so far your support has been amazing and we really appreciate it.

Monday

With calm winds and high pressure, Monday will have some very pleasant fall weather on offer. Expect highs in the low 70s, mostly sunny skies, and a mild night in the 50s. Enjoy!

Tuesday

A moderate onshore flow should begin Tuesday, and this will lead to a bit warmer, and bit more humid conditions. We can safely expect highs to climb into the mid- to upper 70s, with mostly sunny skies. Lows on Tuesday night should only fall to around 60 degrees for most of Houston, albeit warmer along the coast, and slightly cooler inland.

Some parts of Houston may approach 80 degrees on Wednesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday and Thursday

The flow from the Gulf of Mexico should increase by the middle of the week, and at some point Wednesday we should transition from mostly sunny, to partly sunny, so mostly cloudy weather. Highs on both days will reach into the upper 70s—and test my suggestion that Houston could be done with 80-degree temperatures this year. Lows by Wednesday night probably will only fall into the low to mid-60s. Some slight rain chances return for both days, but accumulations where rain does fall should be very light.

Friday

At some point, toward the end of the week, the region’s next cold front will push through Houston. But the global models seem split on whether that will happen on Friday, or Saturday morning. This matters quite a bit for Friday’s weather, as an earlier front would mean cooler and breezy conditions, and a later front means warmer and more humid weather. Bottom line is that the front will probably bring 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain whenever it trundles through Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

Again, Saturday’s weather includes the caveats about the front’s timing. But for now, we expect a pair of days with lows in the low- to mid-60s, mostly sunny skies, and nighttime temperatures probably somewhere in then 40s. It has the look of another beautiful fall weekend for the region.

Next week and Thanksgiving

Temperatures should recover into the 70s by Monday or Tuesday of next week, and then all eyes will turn toward the Thanksgiving holiday. Right now, the bet is that the region’s next next cold front will arrive just before Thanksgiving. A look at the latest European model ensemble run shows about 60 percent of the members with lows in the 30s and 40s on Thanksgiving morning, another 20 percent or so in the 50s, and about 20 percent in the 60s.

European model ensemble forecast for low temperatures. Thanksgiving morning is highlights. (Weather Bell)

The GFS models has a similar 60-40 split in favor of a strong-ish cold front by Thanksgiving. So at this point the odds favor a cool and crisp holiday, but it is by no means a guarantee, or even a high probability.

13 thoughts on “Anticipating a mild week, we look ahead to Thanksgiving

  1. Tom Swinburn

    Too cool too early. Ready for a return to normalcy. But I hear, and afraid it’s true we’re in for a cold winter. Oh well, it happens. Neither weather or climate is static.

    1. Jason

      yes, where are you hearing that, I haven’t heard anything that predicts the next few months will be colder or warmer than normal, or just normal. An early cold snap doesn’t necessarily predict the upcoming winter.

      1. K Novak

        I think it was just a couple of years ago, maybe three, we had a cold November and the rest of the winter turned out to be relatively mild in comparison. So, yeah, an early cold spell has no bearing on what to expect for the winter months in Houston.

    1. Blackhawks Fan

      Perfect for after turkey football in the back yard – – – too bad the yards in Houston are so small and surrounded by 6 foot wood fences… I guess there are some advantages to living in the Midwest after all.

  2. MJ

    So, it sounds like we’d better pack the rain gear for football playoff games on Friday night. I’m hoping the front holds off till 10 pm or later!

  3. Chuck

    “Right now, the bet is that the region’s next next cold front will arrive just before Thanksgiving. A look at the latest European model ensemble run shows about 60 percent of the members with lows in the 30s and 40s on Thanksgiving morning, another 20 percent or so in the 50s, and about 20 percent in the 60s.”

    🙂 Sorry guys, but I’ll be in Puerto Vallarta on Thanksgiving Day, so I’m rooting for the 30s and 40s. Last December when I went to Los Cabos, it was warmer in H-Town! THAT IS WRONG! 🙂

  4. Lane Devereux

    I’d like to contribute to your fundraiser but I don’t want to buy anything. Is there a way to give money directly to Space City Weather?

    1. Kristy Vincent

      I found it! It’s a little convoluted. Click to buy an item (I chose the umbrella). Click the blue Buy/Donate button. THEN there is a teal button for donate only. It takes the items (the umbrella) out and lets you donate only.

  5. J

    “Saturday and Sunday
    Again, Saturday’s weather includes the caveats about the front’s timing. But for now, we expect a pair of days with lows in the low- to mid-60s, mostly sunny skies, and nighttime temperatures probably somewhere in then 40s. It has the look of another beautiful fall weekend for the region.”

    Did you mean, “…HIGHS in the low- to mid 60s…”?

  6. Alex M

    Stop wishing for colder weather, I’m fine is my garden doesn’t get damaged by nasty cold weather.

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