Eric Berger

Temperatures have run 10 to 15 degrees above normal this week for the Houston area, and we’ll experience one more warm day before we cool back down to more spring-like weather for awhile. The good news is that, after a long string of cloudy weather, we’ll also see a nice stretch of sunshine.

Wednesday

Houston may see some effects from a powerful upper-level low pressure system that is barreling across the plains states today. Fortunately for us, we’re on the southern periphery of this system, which means that we’re likely to see only a broken line of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms move through the area, likely between about noon and 3pm this afternoon. Any storms should not last long as the system moves from west to east. We can’t rule out some briefly strong winds or hail, which will be slightly more likely for areas north of Houston than to the south of the city. Highs today should be in the mid-70s.

Rodeo weather

Rain chances should end by the early evening, meaning that our weather should be dry heading into the show. There might even be some clearing skies for a bit, with temperatures in the 70s. Relative humidity will be high, with some southerly winds at about 15mph, so it will still be one of those hair days. Temperatures won’t have dropped much after the concert.

Thursday

A cold front finally drags into Houston on Thursday, likely before noon. It is possible that we’ll see some brief showers with the front, but they should end fairly quickly. Drier air will follow fairly soon, allowing for clearing skies during the afternoon hours, and mostly sunny skies. Is anyone ready to actually see a sunset?

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Houston’s abnormally warm weather will continue for a couple of more days before cooler air arrives toward the end of this week. How warm was Monday? Consider the following:

• Galveston tied its record high for March 11, reaching 78 degrees
• Houston had its warmest day of 2019, reaching 84 degrees.
• On average, it is about 10 days early for a high temperature that warm in Houston

A cold front on Wednesday will bring about a significant change in our weather, leading us back into cooler, early spring-like weather, and also finally bringing some sustained sunny skies.

Tuesday

Fog is again a problem, and once it clears after mid-morning, we’ll be left with mostly cloudy skies. Some very light, scattered showers are possible today, but for the most part it should just be warm, with highs near 80 degrees, and humid. If we get a few breaks in the clouds, highs will likely crest 80 degrees in those areas.

Rodeo weather

Temperatures going into the show will be in the mid-70s, with light rain chances. Not much will change afterward, with temperatures falling only a few degrees and southern winds perhaps picking up to around 15 mph. These gusts may be noticeable on your walk back to your car or the metro.

Wednesday

Houston’s weather will turn more dynamic as the aforementioned cold front combines with a saturated atmosphere to produce showers and likely some thunderstorms for Houston and surrounding areas. Rain chances are highest from around 6am to noon, as the system moves through from west to east. Forecast models aren’t indicating anything too extreme, with most areas likely seeing one-half inch of rain, give or take. Can’t rule out some higher totals, however. Rain chances will linger into the evening, with highs near 80 degrees.

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The big story this morning, and for the next couple of mornings, is fog with warm, muggy air lingering over colder waters. A dense fog advisory is in effect until 10am for Monday morning. We’re also ready to declare that Houston will see more no more freezes this season, and that despite some cooler weather during the second half of this week, winter is effectively over for our region.

Monday

After the fog burns off, today will be a mostly cloudy, warm day with temperatures likely rising to around 80 degrees. Some very light rain will be possible across the region, but chances are only about 10 to 20 percent. Rain chances will be a bit better tonight, but again anything that falls should be light and misty.

Rodeo weather

Temperatures going into the show this evening will be in the upper 70s, and while rain chances aren’t zero, they are quite low. Expect light southeasterly winds and high humidity. Post-show temperatures will be down around 70, with misty rain possible, but unlikely. Don’t expect to see many, if any stars—at least outside NRG Stadium.

Tuesday

Fog will very likely be a problem again this morning. Then, we’ll be in for another warm, mostly gray day, with highs again near 80. Rain chances will be slightly better, again with misty rain mostly likely what falls from the sky. Southerly winds will pick up later in the day, gusting up to 20mph by the evening.

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As the forecast for the next several days becomes more clear, unfortunately it means that our skies will be quite unclear. Which is to say cloudy. Very cloudy. Just looking at the “total cloud cover” forecast from the GFS model this morning, skies are forecast to be 98 percent cloudy (or greater) from now through Wednesday morning—with the exception of a brief period Saturday night. So that’s six days of gray skies, and I’m afraid not much help for it.

Friday

It’s quite warm across the Houston region this morning, as temperatures for some parts of the city have yet to fall below 70 degrees. Cloud should limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-70s today, but it will sure feel humid outside. Some scattered showers, mostly of the light variety, will be possible throughout the day. Accumulations should not be much above a tenth of an inch, if that. Lows tonight will again be very warm for this time of year.

Rodeo weather

Temperatures will be warm, in the low 70s, walking into the show this evening. Relative humidity will be above 80 percent, and we can’t rule out a misty rain before the show, but more likely than not it will just be gray. After the concert, temperatures won’t have dropped much, perhaps down to around 70, and while rain chances will be lower (about 20 percent) they won’t be zero. Again, any rain that falls should be light.

Saturday

A cold front will be sweeping into Texas this weekend, but the bulk of the drier and cooler air will be shunted north of Houston. So, too, should most of the inclement weather.

Therefore while some light rain will be possible Saturday morning, and maybe a thunderstorm or too, for the most part we don’t expect much action in the city and nearby suburbs. The day itself should be warm, in the upper 70s. It’s possible parts of Houston will see some clearing skies during the afternoon and evening, but don’t blink or you’ll miss the blue sky. Rain chances fall to near zero Saturday night.

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