Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston remains in slightly-cooler-than normal pattern for early August, which is most welcome considering that this typically is the region’s warmest time of year. I don’t see a return to 100-degree days any time soon, but next week does look like it will be a little warmer, with slightly less cloud cover.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be summery days, but with just enough cloud cover to take the edge off of high temperatures. Rain coverage will be lower than we saw on Monday and Tuesday, but there still could be a few showers today streaming in from the coast. Mostly, however, we’ll just see partly sunny skies with highs in the low- to mid-90s on both Wednesday and Thursday. Don’t get me wrong, these will still be hot days, but they should be below the criteria set for heat advisory days, and for August this weather is pretty, uhhh, temperate.

Friday and Saturday

After a cold front stalls north of the Houston region late this week, a couple of upper-level systems may move into the area that should prompt air at the surface to rise, and in turn this will increase our rain chances. This should push the likelihood of rain on both days to about 50 percent—with slightly better odds east of Houston, and slightly worse to the west. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will depend on the extent of cloud cover and rain. A few areas may stay in the upper 80s, while sunnier locales jump up into the mid-90s.

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Houston saw more scattered rather than widespread showers on Monday, and that pattern should more or less hold for most of this week as Houston lies beyond the edge of a high pressure system. This will allow for some areas to see downpours today, and others just sunshine, nearby clouds, and humidity.

Tuesday

Houston will see partly sunny skies today, with highs in the lower 90s. We can expect showers to develop offshore and move inland throughout the day, although again, coverage should be more scattered rather than widespread. Where storms set up, people may see up to about one-half inch of rain fairly quickly, but the storms should move off pretty quickly.

Wednesday and Thursday

Conditions for rainfall become slightly less favorable during the middle of the week, as we may see some capping of the atmosphere. I’d peg rain chances at 20 to 30 percent both of these days, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s.

We continue to get a lot of questions about African dust. Some of the latest computer models suggest the dust will remain mostly at bay from the central and upper Texas coasts this week—although the dust will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico—so that shouldn’t be something we have to worry about too much in terms of allergies.

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Typically in Houston, early August sees high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s with full sunshine as high pressure dominates our weather. However, this week Houston will lie on the periphery of high pressure, and this will allow us to see a healthy chance of rain showers this week along the moderately cooler weather. As ever with forecasting rainfall along the Gulf coast, there is a good deal of uncertainty in timing and amounts. But the bottom line is that for August, this week shouldn’t see suffocating heat.

Monday

High temperatures today should range from about 90 degrees to the low 90s, depending upon cloud cover and the extent of rainfall. I think most of the area will see one or two tenths of an inch of rain today, with some areas seeing higher amounts in heavier storms. Rain chances will be highest during the afternoon and early evening hours, but I don’t expect any significant disruptions during this evening’s commute.

Tuesday

Probably more of the same as Monday, albeit with slightly less coverage and temperatures perhaps a tick or two warmer.

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The forecast looks more or less the same for this weekend. We’ll have a dry (very dry for early August, to be honest) start to the day Friday before rain chances pick up through the weekend. If you live up north this is a really pleasant morning for this time of year, with lows as far down as 62 degrees in Crockett, and 65 in much of Montgomery County. Alas, closer to the coast temperatures are still in the mid- to upper-70s due to the influence of the Gulf of Mexico. I’m not sure what more we can expect as this is the dead of summer for us.

Friday

A mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. We can’t entirely rule out an isolated shower along the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze kicks in, but probably not. As moisture returns, we’re also going to say goodbye to these drier mornings.

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