Eric Berger

After a prolonged period of wet weather, the Houston region will see a moderate reprieve as we break from a pattern of widespread, daily rainfall. (Showers aren’t going away entirely, however). It is during this break that we will look for the region’s first real fall cold front. We’re overdue, now—way overdue. As you may recall, we’ve made the arbitrary decision to define this front as the first night after September 1 with an overnight low temperature of 65 degrees or lower at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

The average date for this first front is Sept. 18—two weeks ago—but there is a wide range of variability. For example, it is not unheard of for the first front to arrive in October. It happens about once every 10 years, on average. However, it is rare to get too deep into October without a cold front, and the latest Houston has waited since at least 1889 is October 13th. I’m afraid we’re in danger of setting this record this year.

Per the ensembles of the GFS and European forecast models, the region’s first cold front is unlikely to arrive in Houston this year any time before a time period between Oct. 11 and Oct. 15—nine or 10 days from now. Ughhhhhh.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As higher pressures move into the region, our weather pattern will turn moderately warmer, with high temperatures likely in the upper 80s. Temperatures will ultimately depend upon the amount of sunshine this afternoon, as we expect partly sunny skies. Rain chances will fall back into the 30 percent range, with showers most likely during the late morning and afternoon hours along with daytime heating. Lows in the mid-70s.

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Well, we made it through the end of September. And a strange month it was. No tropical storms or hurricanes hit Texas, and yet it has been one of the wettest months in the state’s history. Much of the state received 200 to 400 percent normal levels of rainfall, including all coastal areas of the Houston region (Galveston will record its second wettest September ever, and third wettest month of all time).

As a result, at the end of a summer in which no tropical storms or hurricanes moved into, or near Texas, the state finishes the hottest part of the year with just eight percent of the state in a “severe” or worse drought. This is a really healthy posture to be in, compared to typical years for Texas at the end of September.

That does not mean September has been particularly fun. Heavy rainfall during the last month has, on at least three occasions, brought significant flooding to Galveston Island and other coastal areas. For much of the region, nearly all of September was a soggy, humid mess with cloudy days and steamy nights. Speaking personally, I am not sorry to see it in the rear view mirror. Now, onto the forecast.

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Well, the front made it through. It’s not a strong front, and it won’t last too long, but at least it should clear out our weather for a day or a bit longer. I guess we’ll have to take what we can get after such a soggy September.

Thursday

This should be a pretty nice day, with highs only in the low- to mid-80s, albeit with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Light northerly winds will bring some drier air into the region as well, and this should keep rain showers mostly at bay—although we can’t rule out some lingering activity along the coast. Low temperatures tonight will probably be the coldest they’ve been this fall, with the northern half of Houston likely falling just below 70 degrees. Again, this isn’t a particularly strong front for late September, but this evening will probably feel pretty nice outside.

Friday

After the cooler start, the region will see the return of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and this should allow some showers and thunderstorms to start spreading into coastal areas, and possibly inland later in the day. With partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s, we don’t expect anything too widespread or too heavy in terms of rainfall.

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Thunderstorms popped up along the coast early this morning, and now some of the heavier rains have migrated inland. These pre-sunrise storms reflect what is likely to be a messy forecast for the next several days as a weak cold front pushes into the area, just beyond Houston offshore, and then likely moves backward through Houston. Add it all up, and there will be a healthy chance of storms over the next several days—along with a brief interregnum of drier and cooler air. Hopefully.

Wednesday

This morning’s storms are likely a precursor for showers and thunderstorms moving along a front that, near sunrise, is approaching the Interstate 35 corridor in central Texas. This should lead to elevated rain chances this afternoon and evening across most of the metro area, with storms moving from northwest to southeast. In terms of accumulation, most areas will probably see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall between Wednesday and Thursday morning, which could cause some brief problems on roadways but should for the most part be manageable.

Thursday

Some drier air should work its way into Houston behind the front, especially for areas well to the west and north of downtown Houston. Lows in the 60s are possible for these areas, but unlikely within Harris County or the city of Houston itself.

Any reprieve won’t last long, however, as the front should lift back onshore Thursday, likely leading to elevated rain chances during the afternoon or evening hours. (We do not expect these storms to be as heavy as those on Wednesday). Daytime highs on Thursday should be in the low- to mid-80s, and we sincerely hope everyone enjoys their 12 hours of almost fall-like weather. Not that we’re bitter about the lack of a strong fall cold front, or anything.

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