Eric Berger

Labor Day is over, so the cold front watch begins in earnest

Labor Day may have come and gone, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to see an immediate end of summer-like weather. As long-time Houston residents know, the first half of September can often feel almost as warm as August. That’s why, when we get to this point we’re often pretty desperate for the first real cold front of the season, and this year is no different.

Probably the most simple way to define the first “real” cold front is when temperatures fall to 65 degrees, or lower, on or after Sept. 1. This generally weeds out rain-cooled days and anything that isn’t a genuine front. When we do this for Houston, the following pattern emerges for the first fall cold front, with an average date of Sept. 18.

Chart of Houston first 65°F minimum temperature on or after September 1st. (Brian Brettschneider)
Chart of Houston first 65°F minimum temperature on or after September 1st. (Brian Brettschneider)

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Strong, scattered storms likely for Labor Day afternoon

It may have been difficult to discern, but Friday and Saturday morning were a bit cooler and drier for Houston, especially northern parts of the region. Well, forget about that now, moisture began returning on Saturday to raise dew points and storm chances for the Labor Day Holiday.

Houston should see more of the same locally heavy storms that developed on Sunday across the region later today, although there may be some increase in coverage. As the storms should stream through the region at a fairly decent clip I don’t anticipate any flooding, but some areas could pick up 2 to 3 inches pretty quickly (while a few miles away may see dark clouds, but no rain).

Precipitable water levels will be about 140 percent of normal later today. (Weather Bell)
Precipitable water levels will be about 140 percent of normal later today. (Weather Bell)

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After one more hot day we’ll cool down a bit for Labor Day Weekend

Houston’s temperatures reached 95 degrees on Wednesday—also known as full summer—and we’ve got one more very warm day before things turn a little cooler, and a little grayer.

Today

With some high pressure over head, mostly sunny skies, and only slim afternoon rain chances today will be another very hot day for the region, with temperatures in the mid-90s. But even for early September, this is pretty typical weather for Houston.

Friday

On Friday a weak front will approach the region from the northeast, and should eventually push through the Houston metro area. Effectively this will increase cloud cover and raise rain chances a bit during the afternoon hours, and some areas may get a few tenths of an inch of rain. The front will moderate temperatures and dewpoints slightly, such that by around sunset, instead of a heat index of 95 degrees, we should see 85 degrees. It won’t feel amazing, but for early September, it should feel entirely pleasing.

A comparison of the GFS model forecast for relative humidity on Thursday night versus Friday night (bottom). (Weather Bell)
A comparison of the GFS model forecast for relative humidity on Thursday night versus Friday night (bottom). (Weather Bell)

(Thank you to Meyerland Animal Clinic for sponsoring Space City Weather this month.)

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TS Hermine finally forms in Gulf, bound for Florida and beyond

After what seems like months of build-up, speculation and watching, Tropical Storm Hermine has finally formed in the Gulf of Mexico. The system still looks somewhat ragged, but its wind speeds have come up, and there’s now the potential for further development before it nears the Florida coast in about 36 hours.

The system has gotten a lot of hype for a mere tropical storm. Part of this is because about a week ago the respected European model really showed strong development (which hasn’t occurred yet), and the fact that it has been nearly three years since a hurricane formed or passed through the Gulf of Mexico. And while this system, formerly known as Invest 99L and Tropical Depression Nine, has been subject to some derision it now should be taken seriously—not only by Florida but much of the east US coast.

Right now this is a big tropical storm, with tropical-storm force winds out to about 100 miles from its center. Those winds may well intensify as the storm has the potential to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane before landfall, although this is far from certain. Hermine also is both a rain (10-15 inches for some locations of Florida is possible) and surge threat to the west coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center has these threats covered in its rainfall and storm surge products.

Track models for Tropical Storm Hermine. (Weather Bell)
Track models for Tropical Storm Hermine. (Weather Bell)

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