Eric Berger

After a wet mid-week, Goldilocks weather for Houston this weekend

Good morning. We’ll remain in a wet, gray pattern for the next couple of days before drier air and lovely weather arrive in time for the weekend. In fact, the weather for the upcoming Friday through Sunday period should make for the region’s nicest weekend since about April. We’ll also take an early look at the Halloween forecast.

Tuesday

Light to moderate showers are moving from west to east across the Houston area this morning, and high resolution models suggest this precipitation should come to an end around noon, or a few hours later. Accumulations should be modest, under 1 inch for most. Skies will remain cloudy after the rains end, and highs for the most part should stay in the 60s today—so cool and gray. Rain chances will be lower tonight, but not zero, with little overnight cooling due to thick cloud cover.

Wednesday

Texas will see some moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Willa on Wednesday, but nothing to be particularly concerned about. A few thunderstorms are possible, but for the most part we expect the region to just see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Slightly higher amounts are possible along the coast.

Rain accumulation forecast for now through Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)

This shouldn’t be enough rain to cause problems for the Houston metro area, but central Texas certainly doesn’t need the additional rainfall. The City of Austin had to issue a boil water notice for residents on Monday due to problems with flooding at its water treatment facilities.

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Willa to make for a wet, but not too wet week in Texas

After a fine (so very fine) Sunday of fall-like weather in Houston, our gray, wet weather returns as early as later today. Part of this is due to moisture from Hurricane Willa in the Pacific Ocean, but as for now we aren’t overly concerned about excessive rains from this system on Tuesday and Wednesday in Houston. Finally, we should clear out for a pretty darn nice fall weekend.

Monday

Clouds will return today, as moisture streams in from the southwest. Some scattered showers are possible today, but better rain chances arrive tonight (around 70 percent for coastal areas, and 50 percent inland) along with low pressure along the coast. Most of the region will probably see less the one-half inch of rain during the overnight hours. Highs Monday will probably remain in the upper 60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Our mid-week weather will be driven somewhat by Hurricane Willa, which should make landfall on Tuesday along the Western coast of Mexico, north of Puerto Vallarta. This is a powerful hurricane on Monday, with Category 4 winds, but Texas should only see rains and some moderately gusty winds from the storm as it weakens over Mexico and brings moisture into the United States later on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane Willa should make landfall on Tuesday. and weaken as it moves across Mexico (National Hurricane Center)

How much moisture? We’ve received several comments from readers about concerns expressed elsewhere about heavy rains in Southeast Texas. Even the most bullish members of the European operational model peak out at about 4 inches of rainfall for Houston, and most of them are in the 1-2 inch range. So that this time we don’t anticipate widespread problems, just fairly grim mid-week weather for Houston. (We have greater concerns about central Texas, where accumulations should be about the same, but where some historic flooding has already occurred this month.)

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Oh Mr. Sun, Mister Golden Sun, please shine down on me

Our wet, but not too wet, and cool, but not too cold pattern will continue for the foreseeable future in the Houston metro area. One thing we can guarantee is that while the Sun does exist, there will be little direct evidence of it over the next week. Clouds, and more clouds, will rule the skies.

Thursday

We’ve seen some light to moderate showers in Montgomery County early this morning, but these should exit the region to the north shortly after sunrise. Scattered showers will be possible today, but accumulations should be slight. High temperatures will be warmer than in recent days, likely around 70 degrees, although any regions that do see short breaks could push into the mid-70s. For the most part, just another gray day.

Friday and Saturday

The story heading into the weekend will be surging moisture levels along the Texas coast, and moving inland. For now, the most likely scenario is that these heavier showers remain well to the south of Houston, most likely in the Corpus Christi area, and staying well to the west of Houston. (The hard hit Austin region, where Lake Travis is nearing record levels, could well see more heavy rain this weekend.)

Rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday evening. (National Weather Service)

For Houston this means a healthy chance (probably around 50 percent) of showers on Friday and Saturday as this moisture moves inland and meets up with an oncoming cold front. For our city and surrounding areas, accumulations are likely to be measured in a few tenths of an inch, but we can’t rule out some heavier isolated storms.

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Dreary weather continues, but we’re holding out hope for Sunday

It’s another cool morning across the region, with highs generally ranging from the 50s up north to the lower 60s along the coast. It is hard to believe we reached 91 degrees only on Sunday, but fall truly has come. Some inland parts of the region may not hit 80 degrees for the rest of this month, although after today we’ll see a moderate warming trend for a few days. If you’re tired of the gray weather, Sunday is your best hope.

Wednesday

Today will probably be similar to Tuesday, with mostly to completely cloudy skies, highs only around 60 degrees for northern areas, and mid-60s for the city. For better rain chances, we’ll need to look to areas far north of the city (i.e. north of College Station or Huntsville) and along the coast and offshore. Chances in Houston will probably be in the 20 to 30 percent range, with what does fall coming down mostly as light mist or drizzle. So basically, another gray day.

Thursday and Friday

Mostly cloudy skies continue, under a northeasterly flow. There’s plenty of moisture toward the second half of the week for the atmosphere to work with, so we’ll probably see more widespread light to moderate rain for Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures should get back into the 70s for most of Houston by Thursday. (National Weather Service)

Accumulations, for the most part, should be measured in tenths. Highs should manage to make it into the low 70s, which is still about 10 degrees below normal levels for this time of year.

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