Good morning. We have some potentially dynamic weather to talk about for the week ahead, with the potential for storms and heavy rain, so let’s get right to it.
Today
Conditions will be fairly pleasant for Houston today, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low 80s. The only blemish will come from gusty southerly winds, bringing moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico, and blowing up to about 20mph. Lows will again be very warm for March tonight, only falling to around 70 degrees for most of the region.
Wednesday
As we’ve been discussing, a potent upper-level storm system will sweep across the central and southern United States on Tuesday and Wednesday, generating enough lift and instability to produce some potentially severe weather. Timing remains a little unclear, but right now storm development in Houston seems most likely during the late morning or early afternoon, and running through the evening hours on Wednesday. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center favors the northern half of the metro area as most likely to see development.
After a mild Saturday and Sunday—a storm system that raked Oklahoma and northern Texas Sunday evening stayed to the north of Houston during the overnight hours—we may see more storms later this week.
Monday
It’s a warm start to the day, with low temperatures only falling to about 70 degrees. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies today, highs will probably climb into the low- to mid-80s this afternoon. Some lower pressure in the atmosphere may provide for a chance of rain showers later this afternoon, but any accumulations should be slight, and I think shower development will be pretty spotty.
Tuesday
Skies clear some, and we’ll again see highs in the low- to mid-80s. The dominant feature Tuesday will be southerly winds, gusting to 20 mph or above. This will herald rising moisture levels, and a good chance of rain on Wednesday.
Wednesday
In combination with an upper-level disturbance, rising moisture levels will combine to produce a healthy chance of rain and the possibility of severe weather on Wednesday. While the instability in the atmosphere looks marginal for tornado formation, we can’t rule them out, along with the possibility of damaging winds and hail.
Storm outlook for Wednesday. (NOAA)
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The storms should be fairly progressive, continuing to move from west to east, so I’m not too concerned about the potential for flooding—I think most areas will see less than 1 inch of rain. But some locally heavy rainfall is definitely a possibility, like we saw Friday night in parts of Houston.
Thursday and Friday
Some light rain may linger into Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, but the upper-level low will also usher a cool front through the area, bringing some relief from the humidity. There’s some question as to how much cooler it will get, but for now I’ll peg highs to end the week at about 80 degrees, with a chance for most of the region to see nighttime temperatures in the 50s on Thursday, and especially Friday, morning.
Next weekend
By Saturday—or more likely Sunday—healthy rain chances return to the forecast. Along with high temperatures around 80 degrees next weekend, we’re going to have to consider the possibility of some rain showers, as the region may pick up another inch or so between Saturday afternoon and Monday. Precise timing and amounts are still hazy this far out, however.
Friday night’s storms were pretty dramatic in terms of thunder and lightning for some areas of Houston, including rodeo goers. I’ll admit that I didn’t think the capping inversion would break that dramatically, but it did, allowing some scattered, but severe thunderstorms to form. There were a few pockets of heavy rain, as well, with some parts of south Houston and Clear Lake picking up 2.5 inches of rain.
The good news is that the cool front associated with the upper-level low pressure system has moved to the coast, and should move offshore shortly after noon. For Houston, then, the rain is over and we should see a couple of mostly sunny days this weekend, with high temperatures in the low 80s.
(Intellicast/Space City Weather)
I’m not ready to 100 percent rule out the chances of some stray showers Sunday night, but I think for the most part we’re going to see pleasant weather from now through about Tuesday, with continuing mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s. A chance of storms returns to the forecast on Wednesday, perhaps later in the day. But whereas the dynamics for severe weather and some heavy rain in Houston once appeared to be pretty favorable next Wednesday, for now I think the threat of these is diminishing a bit. We’ll be back with a full update on Monday.
We’re almost to the weekend! Houston may experience some potentially dynamic weather this afternoon. But after that the region should see a mostly pleasant weekend.
Friday
The much talked about upper-level system has now moved out of the Rocky Mountains, and is pushing a line of showers and thunderstorms to the east. As of 6:30am CT these storms were still well west of Interstate 35, so they won’t reach the Houston area until this afternoon.
(Intellicast)
My thoughts remain much the same as they’ve been this week—this should be a fairly fast moving line of storms, and while there is the potential for some thunderstorms, I think the bulk of the severe weather should remain to the north-northeast of the Houston metro area. In terms of rainfall, accumulations for most areas should be around 0.5 inch, or less, as the storms continue to move at a good clip through the region. They’ll probably reach the region at some point after about 1pm and then exit this evening. Some rain, frankly, would be helpful in dissipating the heavy pollen.
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