Eric Berger

Welcome to August, the dead of summer in Houston.

Long-time Houston residents will know the month to really fear, in terms of heat, humidity, and drought—not to mention very strong hurricanes—is August. I’ll have more later this week on why August is this region’s hottest month, but for now just know that it is. August is a month to be survived in Houston, as we await the beginning of fall in late September. And this week will be a typical August in Houston.

Today

Upper-level high pressure will begin building over Houston today, but there’s a chance we may squeeze a few showers under the pressure later this afternoon when the sea breeze lights up. I don’t think coverage will be that great, and I expect showers that do develop to be short lived. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-90s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

With high pressure dominating we’ll see mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 90s. Some inland areas may flirt with 100 degrees. Lows in the upper 70s.

Texas will lie under a ridge of high pressure this week, which will heat us up. (Weather Bell)
Texas will lie under a ridge of high pressure this week, which will heat us up. (Weather Bell)

(Space City weather thanks Bellaire Dermatology, our sponsor for August.)

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Tropics: Invest 97L still spinning, but probably not bound for Texas

After Matt’s thorough tropical update on Saturday, and notably the area of interest known as Invest 97L, I thought I’d provide a shorter update today.

The system has now crossed over the Leeward Islands into the Caribbean Sea, and it continues to move westward, likely bringing winds and rains to Puerto Rico today. The National Hurricane Center continues to predict a 70 percent chance that this system develops into a tropical depression or storm within five days.

And after that? In the post Matt pointed toward two scenarios for what happens to 97L if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico by around next Friday, or so. The first is that a fairly strong ridge over the southern United States keeps the tropical system to the south of Texas, confined to the Bay of Campeche. This solution was favored by the European model. The other possibility was that this ridge would shift east in about a week, allowing 97L to follow a more northwesterly track toward Texas. However the GFS model which had shown this weakness, appears to be trending toward a stronger ridge.

Models begin to align?

The image below shows the ensemble forecast from the GFS model this morning (06z run) which essentially means the model is run a number of different times, with slight different initial conditions. You can see that the majority of solutions now keep the storm well to the south of Texas.

GFS ensemble forecast for tropical low locations early Monday morning. (Weather Bell)
GFS ensemble forecast for tropical low locations early Monday morning. (Weather Bell)

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Drier, warmer pattern looms after a stormy week

Good morning. It’s been a mostly wet week to bring July to a close, and yesterday we saw some much needed rain just to the north of the city of Houston. As a result most of the area has seen 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain during the last three days, a nice reprieve from what was otherwise a sweltering month. This rather wet interlude may soon draw to a close, however, as drier weather looms.

Fortunately that does not mean we are going to climb back toward the 100-degree temperatures we experienced last weekend. Houston continues to fall between two high pressure systems—one over the western United States and one along the east coast.

Texas lies between two high pressure systems at the moment. (Weather Bell)
Texas lies between two high pressure systems at the moment. (Weather Bell)

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It’s that time of year—slumbering tropics show signs of awakening

As we approach the beginning of August we’re about to begin the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is because low pressure systems start to move off the African coast and into the eastern Atlantic ocean, into what is known as the “main development region.”

And right on cue, the Atlantic is delivering, with a large low that has developed into a tropical wave just off the coast of Africa. According to the National Hurricane Center this system has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next five days.

The 1pm CT, Wednesday, advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
The 1pm CT, Wednesday, advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

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