Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss record heat in November, with a couple of days this week likely breaking high temperature marks. Houston is also going to finally see some meaningful rainfall this week, likely beginning on Thursday, ahead of a front.

Heat and drought

Let’s start with record setting daytime warmth for Houston. Monday through Thursday of this week are going to bring high temperatures in the mid- (and for some locations) upper-80s. Here are the city’s current record highs for these days, along with forecast highs in parentheses.

• Nov. 17: 86 degrees (85)
• Nov. 18: 84 degrees (87)
• Nov. 19: 85 degrees (86)
• Nov. 20: 84 degrees (85)

The record warmth is coming as the Houston region continues to advance toward a severe drought. According to the latest data from NOAA, through mid-November the region has received only about 10 to 50 percent of normal rainfall during the last two months. Much of the region has received almost no rainfall during the month of November. It’s very dry outside.

During the last 60 days most of the Houston region has received 10 to 50 percent of normal precipitation.

With all of that said, cooler temperatures and more rainfall are finally in the forecast. Rains will arrive by Wednesday or Thursday of this week, and we should begin to cool down some by this weekend. Longer term, by around Thanksgiving or shortly thereafter, we could see significantly colder weather.

2025 fundraiser update

Before getting into this week’s forecast, I wanted to thank everyone who has donated to our annual fundraiser so far. We have had a tremendous start, and are about 40 percent toward our goal to support the website and app during the coming year. For more information on how to donate, or buy merchandise, please visit this page.

Monday and Tuesday

These days will be uncharacteristically sticky for mid-November. The first two days of this week will more or less see a continuation of the warm and humid weather the region experienced this weekend. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid-80s for much of the city, with inland locations pushing into the upper 80s. Skies will be partly sunny. With dewpoints in the vicinity of 70 degrees it will be very sticky outside. Additionally, as overnight lows only fall to around 70 degrees, we probably will see some patchy fog develop. Winds will be light in the morning, but increasing to 10 to 15 mph during the afternoons.

Wednesday

We’ll see more clouds on Wednesday, and this should cap high temperatures in the mid-80s. We’ll also see a slight chance of rain, but I would only put the likelihood in the ballpark of 10 to 20 percent. Nighttime temperatures remain warm and muggy.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances will increase to 50 percent, or higher, on Thursday as a series of disturbances begin to pass overhead. Highs Thursday will depend on the extent of rainfall, but I expect most of the area to reach the low- to mid-80s. This somewhat rainy pattern will continue into Friday. At some point, and I confess the timing is not yet clear, a front is going to push through the area. This probably will be on Friday at some point, and bring with it a line of showers and thunderstorms. Overall conditions with the front don’t appear to favor anything too severe, but we’ll be keeping an eye on things. Highs should be in the vicinity of 80 degrees on Friday, depending on the timing of the front.

Saturday and Sunday

Our weather this weekend will depend on the strength of the front, and there remains some question on just how much cooler and drier air will reach Houston. I think there will be a decent amount, but we shall see. For now let’s go with highs in the 70s and lows on Saturday and Sunday night in the 50s, with lower humidity. I also think both days will continue to see a decent chance of rain showers, but again this will depend on where and when the front stalls. So the bottom line is that our forecast for this weekend is uncertain: could be mildly warm and rainier, or a little cooler with less rainfall. Stay tuned. In terms of rainfall accumulations I expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 4 inches through Sunday.

Next week

Our somewhat cooler and less humid weather should persist through the middle of next week. By around next Thursday—yes, Thanksgiving Day—there are hints in some of our models of a stronger front arriving. It’s far too early to say whether this colder air will arrive by Thanksgiving, or a day or two later. However, if you’ve been pining for some colder nights. It does look like we could be about 10 days away from this.

In brief: In today’s forecast we talk about our warm weather across the next week, and when it should start to rain again. We also venture into the perilous mists of long-term forecasting, and issue a preliminary prognostication for Thanksgiving Day in Houston.

Thanksgiving forecast note

Yes, at the end of today’s post we are going to take a stab at forecasting the weather for Thanksgiving this year, which is a full two weeks from today. It’s a little mad to try and do this because, as a general rule, forecasts are usually pretty accurate out to five days, and have some value from five to 10 days out. And after 10 days, well, sometimes forecasters can be a little more accurate than throwing a dart at a wall. Sometimes. We’re going to take our best shot anyway.

The reality is that, because we own and operate Space City Weather independently, Matt and I have complete editorial control. We don’t work for anyone but our readers—that’s you. So we can do zany things, and take chances, and have some fun. That’s why our annual fundraiser is so important. If you can support us, please do. If you can’t that’s totally fine as well. We understand this economy isn’t helping everyone.

Thursday

Lows across most of the region this morning are in the vicinity of 60 degrees, nearly 10 degrees above normal for mid-November. And still, this will be the region’s coolest morning for the next week. That’s because high pressure has moved in, and will remain more or less in place, allowing for a persistent, warm-ish pattern. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees across the area, or slightly above. Winds will come from the southeast, mostly light, but gusting up to 20 mph during the afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with the potential for some patchy fog to develop.

Friday

This will be a mostly sunny day with a high generally in the low 80s. Friday night will be mild, in the mid-60s, with the potential for fog. With dewpoints around 60 degrees it will be somewhat humid, but not excessively so (just you wait, it’s coming). Rain chances remain near zero.

Saturday and Sunday

Sunshine will continue, with highs in the mid-80s (possibly nudging into the upper 80s on Sunday). A front will approach the area, but wash out before moving into the region. Nights should remain in the mid-60s for most. Rain chances will be low, perhaps 10 percent, for each day. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

The first half of next week looks rather warm and humid. We’ll see another boost in atmospheric moisture, and this will nudge the humidity levels up. Monday or Tuesday could see a dewpoint near 70 degrees, which is extremely humid for this time of year. High temperatures will likely be in the vicinity of the mid-80s, with partly cloudy skies. Nights will be warm and mild. This increasing moisture will lead to some low-end rain chances, perhaps 20 to 30 percent on Monday through Wednesday.

Then, about a week from now, there is general agreement in the models that some sort of front is going to push into the area, bringing better rain chances and cooler air. Since this is about a week out our confidence is lower in the details. But I’m hopeful it will bring an end to the anomalously warm pattern for November, and also some needed rainfall.

Thanksgiving week

So what does the weather look like a full week after that? We are now entering the danger zone for forecasting. With that said, there is a rough signal in most of our best model guidance for a somewhat stronger front to move into the area about 10 days from now, in the vicinity of Sunday, Nov. 23. This would set the stage for a pleasant week, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees and nights in the 50s. My official forecast for Houston on Thanksgiving Day therefore calls for a high of 68 degrees, with partly cloudy skies, and a 30 percent chance of rain. It will be fun to see how wrong this is two weeks from today.

In brief: In today’s post we say goodbye to colder weather and hello to warmer conditions for awhile. Houston will see gradually increasing temperatures and humidity over the next week. However, cooler weather does appear to be on the horizon. I also explain why we hold our annual fundraiser in November.

Overall pattern

Temperatures this morning are generally 15 to 20 degrees warmer than on Tuesday, signaling that our brief incursion of Arctic air is over. Lows across Houston are generally in the mid- to upper-50s at sunrise, and this will likely be our coldest air for at least the next week as high pressure returns to dominate our pattern. We can expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s to prevail for awhile. This general pattern should prevail until the middle of next week, at which time a stronger front may be in the cards.

Wednesday

After today’s moderately chilly start, we will see high temperatures climb into the lower 80s this afternoon. We also will see more pronounced southerly winds, with gusts perhaps pushing as high as 20 mph. There will be a few clouds this afternoon, but mostly sunny skies will generally be the order of the day. With the warmer overall flow, temperatures tonight will only drop into the low- to mid-60s, so another step up even from this morning’s lows.

Thursday and Friday

Our warmer pattern continues. Expect highs mostly in the lower-80s, but some inland locations could push the mid-80s. Skies will be mostly sunny with the southerly winds noted above, and warm nights in the 60s. With dewpoints in the 60s the air will be modestly humid, but nothing too oppressive.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring a continuation of these trends. High temperatures will nudge upward, into the mid-80s for most locations. Skies remain mostly sunny and the models have trended downward with rain rain chances. For now I’d go with maybe 10 percent on Saturday, and 20 percent on Sunday. So very low, and probably not a factor in outdoor activities this weekend. Nights remain warm.

Temperatures will go up before they come down. (Weather Bell)

Next week

The first half of next week appears likely to be warm and muggy, with highs in the mid-80s and humidity levels creeping upward. This will lead to warmer nights as well, in the upper 60s, which is uncharacteristically warm for November. We may start to see a few isolated showers as well. Most of our model guidance is still pointing toward a stronger front arriving some time during the second half of next week. This should bring elevated rain chances in the Wednesday and Thursday time frame, followed by cooler temperatures. But the details of this front remain shrouded with some uncertainty.

Tomorrow I’ll dig a little deeper into this, and also hazard our first (and very tentative) forecast for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Fundraiser

We hold our annual fundraiser in November, because it is typically a quiet weather month. Matt and I very deliberately don’t seek any donations during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season because we don’t want to appear as though we are trying to capitalize on bad weather. But just know that if you support the site now, you’re ensuring that we can provide quality information year-round, in the good weather times, and in the inevitably bad weather times. For more information on how to donate or purchase merchandise, please visit this page.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss how cold conditions got in the Houston region this morning, and then look ahead to warmer days. We also consider the potential for rain chances this weekend, and a stronger front next week.

How low did we go?

This morning’s post is a little bit late because I wanted to get a good read on just how low temperatures in the region went this morning. Although the numbers are not official yet, the city’s primary station at Bush Intercontinental Airport dropped to at least 37 degrees (the record minimum for today is 32 degrees, set in 1987). Some of the usual cooler spots, including Conroe, Cleveland, Brenham, and Navasota, all recorded a light freeze this morning, and the vast majority of the metro area dropped into the 30s, barring the immediate coast. In short, it’s rather chilly for early November. However this won’t persist. Last week we described this front and short and sharp, and temperatures will moderate quickly today.

Veterans Day

If you’re participating in a ceremony to honor the nation’s veterans this morning, you can expect sunny skies and warming temperatures. We should be in the 50s by mid-morning, and headed to the lower 70s this afternoon. Light easterly winds will shift to come from the south later this morning, and that will herald the beginning of an onshore flow. Lows tonight, accordingly, will only drop into the upper 50s. So very much on the warmer side.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The remainder of the work week will see mild weather. Expect highs generally in the low 80s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will be near zero. Winds will be light in the morning, but there may be some southerly gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoons. With dewpoints in the low 60s the air will be modestly humid, but not oppressively so. Nights will be on the warm side, falling only into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Although previously it looked as though a front may push into the Houston area this weekend, that no longer appears likely to happen. Instead the front is likely to approach the area but effectively wash out before moving into Houston proper. So what does that mean for our weather? I expect to see highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees with warm nights. With plenty of moisture and the possibility of a disturbed atmosphere, I think we’ll see a slight (perhaps 20 or 30 percent) chance of rain on Saturday, and maybe a better chance (50 percent?) on Sunday. We’ll probably need to keep using pencils and erasers on this forecast for another day or two before our confidence increases.

Next week

It’s possible that a weak front does make it by Tuesday or so, but we probably will have to wait until later in the week (in the Nov. 20-21 range) for something a little stronger. The bottom line is that, at some point next week, I’m fairly confident we’ll see some pretty healthy rain chances and cooler weather. But before then we’re going to have a goodly string of 80-degree days.

Fundraiser

Matt and I wanted to thank everyone who donated to our fundraiser, which kicked off on Monday. You can find all the details here on merchandise to purchase, or how to donate. Your support really does make a difference!