Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our ongoing heat and decent rain chances, as well as a new tropical blob in the Gulf (which is not at all an issue for us). Also, we’re excited to share our first stab at a list of regional weather web sites, for other locations, that are similar in tenor to Space City Weather.

Regional weather sites (and other notes)

One of the most frequent questions we hear at Space City Weather goes something like this: “I’m moving to [insert destination] and I’m trying to find a weather blog there just like Space City Weather. Can you help?” Unfortunately, short of a handful of destinations we really could not.

So over the last few months our Dwight Silverman has been digging for independent, locally focused sources weather information. To qualify these sites also need to provide quality information (surprise, there’s a lot of junk out there) and be regularly updated. The end result of this is a page, which we will regularly update, that provides links to recommended regional weather sites. We welcome suggestions for sites to add, which you can provide at this Discourse comment thread.

While we are discussing site housekeeping notes, I also want to remind readers to make sure you’ve downloaded the latest version of our app. We think we have finally solved an issue that led to crashes on some iOS devices. Additionally, don’t forget that we’ve migrated our comment system over to Discourse. The goal is to make it easier for us to moderate conversations, highlight thoughtful contributions, and cut down on off-topic noise. 

Tuesday

If your child is heading back to school today, rain showers have remained offshore for the most part this morning. So we’re left with a warm, and humid start to the school year—as is often the case during August. Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon, allowing highs to reach the mid-90s for most of the region. Far inland areas may nudge up into the upper 90s, whereas coastal areas will top out in the lower 90s. Some scattered to isolated showers will be possible later this morning and into the afternoon hours, but I would put overall chances at only about 30 percent. We may see a few isolated downpours, but for the most part these should be light to moderate rains. Winds will be light. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees.

Speaking of tonight, the Perseid meteor shower peaks on Tuesday night, with the optimum time for viewing from 1 am to 5 am on Wednesday morning. We should be in luck with largely cloud-free skies, but a waning Moon will unfortunately provide some unwanted extra light. As always, viewing a meteor shower is best far from bright city lights.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The story remains largely the same for the rest of the week, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s, mostly sunny skies, and spotty rain chances. Most of us probably will see at least some shower activity this week, especially closer to the coast. But for most of us accumulations will be at or below 0.5 inch. Nights (of course!) remain warm and muggy.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

As high pressure expands westward this weekend, we may see a few more high temperature readings in the upper 90s. But we should also still see some scattered daily shower chances, perhaps on the order of 30 percent daily. All in all, it should feel like a typical August weekend, which is to say hot, mostly sunny, and very humid. This pattern will likely continue into the start of next week.

Atlantic tropics

As expected, we are seeing the tropics come to life. Tropical Storm Erin formed on Monday, and this probably will become the season’s first hurricane within a couple of days. Erin is expected to track north of the Caribbean Sea. And while there is a non-zero threat that the storm moves toward the southeastern United States (probably less than 10 percent), at this point the biggest concern I have is in regard to Bermuda about one week from today. To be clear: there is no threat to the Gulf from Erin.

Speaking of the Gulf, there is a yellow X there this morning. However, as Matt pointed out on The Eyewall last night, there is a mountain of wind shear in the western Gulf right now, and the eastern Gulf isn’t exactly hospitable either. So this is just a run-of-the-mill surface trough interacting with warm water and hot, humid Gulf weather, producing lots of thunderstorms. It should slowly lift away from Texas toward the northern Gulf coast. So not at all a threat locally.

In brief: Houston will see a pattern this week of typical August temperatures, and daily shower chances. We may also see a few isolated downpours and strong winds each day. By this weekend high pressure should begin to build over the area, pushing temperatures up and rain chances downward.

Pattern overview

High pressure will develop over the Florida region during the next couple of days, and this area will gradually expand westward this week across the Gulf. What this means for Houston is that, through the coming work week, we will see enough “weakness” in the pressure pattern to allow for healthy daily shower chances with a few strong, embedded thunderstorms. This is the kind of weather some areas, such as Sugar Land, experienced on Saturday withy isolated strong storms.

This somewhat unsettled pattern should keep high temperatures this week in the mid-90s, but we could be headed toward hotter temperatures this coming weekend, when the ridge of high pressure expands far enough west to begin directly influencing our weather.

The aforementioned high pressure system’s placement over the Gulf will also play a role in the evolution of a tropical system now known as Invest 97L, but which is likely to become a tropical storm in a couple of days, and later a hurricane. This system is not much of a threat to reach the Gulf, but the placement of the high will help determine whether Invest 97L approaches the eastern United States or remains well offshore.

Monday

A quick look at the radar this morning shows plenty of showers offshore and to the east of the city, and these should gradually spread into the Houston metro area later this morning. As will be the case much of this week, the showers will be hit or miss, with a few embedded thunderstorms. By this afternoon we should see mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for areas along and south of Interstate 10, and mid- to upper-90s for inland areas. Winds will be fairly light, at 5 to 10 mph, generally from the south. Overnight lows may briefly fall below 80 degrees.

Tuesday through Friday

Our weather for much of the week will basically be rinse and repeat: highs in the mid-90s for most locations, and a decent (think 40 to 50 percent chance) of showers daily. For most of us, the showers will quickly pass, but there could be isolated, heavier downpours. Since we’re in the middle of August it’s going to be plenty humid with very warm nights. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure builds heading into the weekend I believe we are likely to see decreasing rain chances and rising temperatures. Expect mostly sunny skies this weekend, with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s for areas away from the coast. If you’ve been waiting for (or dreading) the summer sizzle, it appears to be headed our way.

Next week

If high pressure does start to more directly influence our weather, how long will it last? That’s a question I really cannot answer, but there are at least some small indications that perhaps a rainier, slightly cooler pattern will return by the middle of next week or so. At least that’s the hope I have. We’ll see.

Atlantic tropics

The big storm everyone is watching this week is Invest 97L, which I mentioned in the introduction. I think there’s a good chance this will become the season’s first Atlantic hurricane, but for now it’s eventual forecast remains uncertain. What we can say is that it is almost certainly not a threat to the Gulf, or Texas. Matt will have plenty more information on this system all of this over at The Eyewall.

In brief: Today’s post explains why boring and calm weather in August is the perfect ideal for Houston. This will never be a month for nice weather. But it is often a month for nasty weather. Fortunately, this year, we’re not seeing that. (So far).

August doldrums

A lot of terrible, awful, no good weather can happen in August along the upper Texas coast. Historically this is when we have seen our most terrible heat. I think about the summer of 2023, when the average daily high temperature for August was 103 degrees. This is the month when we often seen our most entrenched high pressure systems and deepest droughts. Conversely, August and September are when the region is most vulnerable to powerful hurricanes. So we can see not just droughts but flooding rains. We often go from drought to flash flooding in a matter of minutes due to the nature of tropical rainfall. Fun times.

So when I look ahead to our forecast over the next 10 days and see highs generally in the low- to mid-90s, with enough of a splash of rain—but not too much, mind you—to keep the drought at bay, I’m happy. It may be boring to forecast. It may mean no one is reading about, or really cares about the weather. But boring weather in August beats almost any conceivable alternative. So I say, with pride, that today’s forecast post is boring.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week will bring some of our warmest weather. Daytime highs will push into the mid- to upper-90s (for inland areas), with mostly sunny skies. We will see some showers offshore during the morning hours, and I expect these to develop over land later this morning and during the afternoon with daytime heating. Generally I expect about 10 percent of the region to see moderate to heavy rains, another 20 percent or so to see light rain, and then the rest of us nothing. So these will be very much hit or miss rains. Winds will be light, generally from the southeast. Overnight lows are very warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

As the high pressure system over the Southwestern United States retreats a little bit this weekend, we will see slightly increased rain chances. Overall daily coverage will be about 40 percent, and again these should be very much hit or miss showers, with a few isolated pockets of heavy rain, and most areas seeing much less. A few more clouds should help limit high temperatures this weekend to the low- to mid-90s. Which, for the deepest dog days of summer, is not half bad.

Next week

This pattern of boring weather: highs generally in the mid-90s, low-end daily rain chances, and plenty of humidity, should continue for the majority of next week. It’s not glamorous, but for me in August, in Houston, every day is one of survive and advance toward fall. And we’re getting there folks.

In brief: This post discusses our relatively mild start to the month of August, which is a nice change from some of our recent summers. And really the forecast does not offer much variability, with highs likely in the low- to mid-90s for awhile with a splash of daily rain chances.

It could be worse

The average high temperature during the sizzling first week of August, 2023, was 102 degrees Fahrenheit. (I felt a shudder as I wrote that). Last year it was 97.5 degrees. This year, so far, we’re running at 93.8 degrees. This is not exceptionally cool, but it is a little bit below the normal high for this time of year (96 degrees). As Matt has noted the moderate daytime temperatures we’ve been seeing this summer have been offset by extremely warm nights, but nevertheless it sure feels nice to go through what is typically the hottest time of the year and have days that aren’t at or near record high temperatures.

And I don’t want to jinx anything, but it looks like we should remain solidly in the low- to mid-90s through at least the middle of the month as high pressure appears unlikely to build directly over the region anytime soon.

Wednesday

We remain on the edge of a very potent high pressure system anchored over the Southwestern United States, and that will continue to bring warm, mostly sunny days with a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms. With this pattern we should continue to see high temperatures in the mid-90s for areas along and north of Interstate 10, and lower 90s for areas closer to the coast. Rain chances will be on the order of about 30 percent daily, with totals probably at the higher end toward the coast, and lower further inland. Humidity remains high, with light southeasterly winds. Nighttime temperatures will struggle to fall much below 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

These days will see a similar pattern, although daytime highs should be 1 or 2 degrees warmer, with some inland areas potentially reaching the upper 90s. A chance of showers is possible during the afternoon along the sea breeze.

Saturday and Sunday

The song remains the same heading into the weekend, although daily rain chances may nudge up to 40 or even 50 percent closer to the coast. These showers are unlikely to last too long, and for most locations will only bring a tenth of an inch of rain or two. For the most part skies should be sunny, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s.

Next week

Honestly, at this point not much change appears to be in the forecast for next week. If we’re getting through August with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s and the occasional shower to keep things green, then we’re doing August in Houston about as good as one can.

Tropics

Dexter remains a weak tropical storm that is moving away from land, so no concerns there. Two other systems have a chance to develop, and one of them may bring increased rain chances to the southeastern United States over the next week. The Gulf looks clear for now, but we’re just about to begin a pattern of tropical systems forming in the “main development region” of the tropical Atlantic, and these will have a better chance of moving westward toward the Gulf, and potentially entering the body of water on our doorstep. Nothing is imminent, however. We’re just getting close to that time of year.