Eric Berger

In brief: Houston is not done with the colder weather, but our low temperatures will now moderate slightly for the next couple of days. As a coastal low pressure system approaches we’ll see increased rain chances on Thursday, and the potential for heavy rainfall Thursday evening and during the overnight hours into Friday. Sunshine returns on Friday.

Wednesday

Temperatures, generally, are in the mid- to upper-30s across most of the Houston region this morning. This is due in part to increasing cloud cover, which will also limit high temperatures today to the lower 40s. It will still feel quite chilly outside, however, as winds from the north gust up to 20 mph. So although we’re done with freezing temperatures for a bit, the brisk conditions are not going away. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 30s again for much of the region.

Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday morning

By Thursday morning we’ll start to see the possibility of light showers developing across Houston, and this pattern will continue through much of the day. With high temperatures in the mid-40s (even warmer near the coast) there is no threat of freezing rain or sleet in the Houston area. It appears as though the main impulse of showers and storms, due to a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico, will move in on Thursday night. The best chance for heavy rain will therefore occur during the overnight hours, and closer to the coast. Much of the area is likely to pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals possible. This system should push east of the area by Friday morning, (mostly) bringing an end to rain chances before noon.

Friday

Another pulse of colder and drier air will push in as the coastal low exits, and Friday looks to be a breezy and cool day with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 40s. With skies likely to start clearing out on Friday night, expect a chilly night, with parts of Houston likely seeing a light freeze again, and far inland areas possibly experiencing a hard freeze.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny and milder conditions back to Houston. Expect highs of around 50 degrees on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night should remain comfortably above freezing, with highs on Sunday possibly reaching as high as 60 degrees.

Next week

We’re not going to warm up much next week, with highs likely in the 50s and lows in the 40s. There’s still not a whole lot of clarity for the Houston Marathon forecast. I expect next Friday and Saturday to see a warming trend, but there’s a chance another front comes through by or before Sunday morning to cool things down. Of course a front could mean rain so yeah, the forecast remains uncertain.

In brief: The cold weather we’ve been experiencing for the last 36 hours is here to stay, as we are going to remain quite cold through Friday night. On Thursday and Thursday night we’re going to add a fair amount of rain to the mix, but fortunately this is unlikely to fall as freezing rain in Houston. The weekend looks sunny and pleasant, at least.

Cold update

Temperatures this morning have, again, fallen to just below freezing for much of the Houston area. The city’s official low temperature this morning is likely to be about 30 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This is not near record territory, as the record low temperature for January 7 in Houston is 19 degrees, set in 1970.

However, both our daily high and low temperatures are running 10 to 15 degrees below normal, and what is unusual about this week’s weather is its sticking power. We’re going to remain quite cold, weather-wise, through Saturday. So if you received an ugly sweater for Christmas, at least you’re going to be able to put it to good use.

Tuesday

After the cold start this morning we will see sunny skies today, and this should help push high temperatures up to around 50 degrees. Believe it or not, this could be the warmest we get until at least Saturday, which will be the region’s next truly sunny day. Anyway, winds will be lighter today than on Monday, so it will feel less chilly outside. Low temperatures tonight will probably be 1 to 3 degrees warmer than Monday night, so a light freeze is still possible in the Houston metro area, but it’s not guaranteed.

Wednesday

This will be a colder day, as winds from the north increase a bit, with gusts up to 20 mph, and we see the development of some clouds. These clouds should limit highs in the mid-40s during the daytime, but also moderate nighttime highs just a bit. Most of Houston probably will only fall into the mid- to upper-30s. That’s a good thing because beginning early Thursday we’ll start to see some rain chances.

Now I know some people will be disappointed that temperatures are not a few degrees colder, giving us the chance of snow. But I have to say, if temperatures were freezing—given the atmospheric profile—we probably would be getting freezing rain rather than snow in Houston. And let me tell you, that’s miserable, and it’s a mess on roads, and it can stick to powerlines and snap them and … well, freezing rain sucks. So let’s be glad it’s unlikely to fall here. There is a slight chance of freezing rain for counties well north of the city of Houston, including Houston (which is north of Huntsville, Texas) and Trinity counties.

Thursday

This will be a cold and gray day, with an increasing chance of showers the later we go. Like, please don’t plan any outdoor activities for Thursday or especially Thursday evening. Temperatures will be in the 40s, and winds from the northeast at 15 mph with higher gusts. And then there’s the rain. I expect much of the area to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through Thursday night, with some higher totals possible. So yeah, it’s going to be cold and wet and icky. The rains will continue into Friday morning. As noted yesterday, a winter storm is likely in North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Avoid traveling there if possible.

Friday

Some rain chances linger on Friday morning before the coastal low pressure system finally clears out. Afterward expect highs in the 40s with mostly cloudy skies. We probably will see an influx of colder air as the low moves to the east on Friday, so lows on Friday night may drop back into the lower 30s on Friday night, with some parts of Houston again seeing a light freeze.

Saturday and Sunday

Sunshine should finally return for the weekend, allowing high temperatures to reach maybe the lower 50s on Saturday, and even the 60s on Sunday. We have no real weather concerns for the weekend, so it’s something to look forward to as we’re freezing this week.

Houston Marathon

Hello, fellow runners. We’re now just 12 days away from the Houston Marathon, and we can begin to take a peek at the weather for the event. I know opinions vary, but I love cold and dry conditions. Some of you like it much warmer and even muggier. So what can we expect?

Most of next week looks to remain fairly cold. Not as cold as this week, but with lows consistently in the 40s, and possibly even 30s on some nights. However things may start to warm up some about 10 days from now. At that point there is a pretty broad divergence in the models about whether another system comes through to keep the chill going, or whether we continue to see warmer and milder weather.

So I think we cannot say much sensible about the weather yet for the marathon. It might be 40 degrees on the start line, or it might even be 60 degrees. Rain is definitely a possibility, but it’s way, way too early to make any kind of a prediction there. I’ll update the marathon forecast when there’s something I’m a little more confident in.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the city’s first freeze in nearly a year, and how long this cold weather will last. We also dig into the chances for snow or a wintry mix later this week (unlikely in Houston). Finally, our attention will turn toward the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, which faces the prospect of a major winter storm in the Thursday timeframe.

Low temperature watch

I realize it may be difficult to remember back to last winter. After a long, long summer I know it is challenging for me. However, if you recall, we had a pretty potent Arctic blast in the middle of last January. The low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport dropped to 18 degrees on one night. And on January 20, the temperature reached 29 degrees at the city’s official monitoring station.

Houston had not recorded a freezing temperature since then—until this morning. As of 7 am CT, the low temperature at Bush airport is 30 degrees, with some locations further inland, in places such as Montgomery County, dropping into the upper 20s. Pretty much the entire metro area, bar the immediate coast, has reached freezing temperatures this morning. This very chilly weather will stick with us through Saturday.

Monday

Although it’s very cold outside this morning, by Houston standards at least, there are at least some bits of good news. Winds that had been gusting up to 30 mph, or higher, overnight are starting to come down. We’ll remain a bit gusty through the morning hours before things really quiet down this afternoon. Skies, too, will be sunny today, and this will help push our high temperatures into the mid-40s. What is beneficial for daytime weather, however, is also ideal for cooling down tonight. And with clear skies and light winds I expect that low temperatures tonight will again drop to the levels we’re seeing this morning, if not a degree or two colder. Tonight will be the coldest night of the forecast period. A hard freeze is possible along and north of Highway 105, which runs from Cleveland to Conroe.

Tuesday

This will be another sunny day, with high temperatures likely reaching the upper 40s. Winds will be light, from the north. Lows on Tuesday night should be a couple of degrees warmer, with the urban core of Houston probably not quite falling to the freezing level.

Wednesday

We’ll start to see some clouds building on Wednesday, which will help to limit high temperatures to perhaps the lower 40s. So this could be the coldest daytime temperature of the week.

Thursday

A coastal low pressure system will bring a healthy chance of rain into the forecast beginning late Wednesday night, and especially on Thursday. Given the ongoing cold weather, this raises the possibility of snow or, more likely the threat of freezing rain. At this point, for Houston, I anticipate that low temperatures on Thursday morning (probably in the mid-30s) will be just warm enough to preclude the chance of wintry precipitation locally. Additionally, daytime highs in the 40s will be warm enough prevent anything from sticking.

But it’s going to be a fairly close call, and we could see some issues in places like College Station or northern Montgomery County. It’s something we’ll continue to keep an eye on, but again, for Houston, I think this probably just ends up being a cold and rainy day. Most areas could see 1 inch or more of rain. Just think, if it were 10 degrees colder, we could be talking about a foot of snow in Houston! Lows on Thursday night should drop into the mid- to upper-30s, which should again be just warm enough to prevent any wet streets in Houston from freezing over. We’ll see.

Friday

This looks to be another cold and gray day, with highs in the upper 40s maybe. Lows on Friday night should be chilly again, perhaps falling to within a couple of degrees of freezing in Houston. Maybe it even gets all the way to freezing again in Houston, I’m not sure.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunnier and warmer, with highs in the 50s, perhaps, and lows in the upper 30s or lower 40s. So still cold, but not as cold.

North Texas slop-fest

Although Houston will (probably) be missing out on a winter storm this week, the same cannot be said for areas of north Texas, particularly along the Interstate 20 corridor, and East Texas. These areas will also see a decent amount of precipitation on Wednesday night and Thursday, and it is likely to come in the form of snow, or sleet, or both. I anticipate this will set the stage for a major ice storm on the roads of north Texas, so if your travel plans include Dallas, Fort Worth, or anywhere in Texas north of Huntsville or Austin you’ll need to keep careful tabs on the weather. I don’t think we can say which form of wintry precipitation is coming to north Texas, but something cold and slick is indeed on the way.

In brief: The much-discussed Arctic front is on schedule for this afternoon, bringing freezing temperatures to the Houston area after midnight tonight. This post discusses how cold we’re going to get, and whether precipitation on Thursday will just be rain, or something else.

Cold coming

The first few days of the new year have been relatively mild, with high temperatures in 60s and 70s. That will change in a big way later today, with the strongest front of the winter season on track to arrive in the Houston area this afternoon. This front will usher in a freeze to inland areas, including locations such as Katy and The Woodlands, by around midnight. Temperatures should reach freezing for all but areas immediately along the coast by Monday morning. Colder than normal weather will stick around for the remainder of the week.

Frontal passage

Some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will accompany the front’s passage today as it moves from northwest to southeast across Houston. At present I expect it to reach northwest Harris County by around 2 to 4 pm, and swoop down to the coast by around sunrise. There is a slight chance of some severe weather with the front, especially to the northeast of Houston, in the form of stronger thunderstorms. But mostly, everyone will notice the winds kicking up, and drier air moving in. Temperatures fall pretty quickly behind the front.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

This will be the coldest period, with daytime high temperatures in the 40s. Each night will bring freezing, or near-freezing temperatures throughout Houston. It’s possible that the urban heat island effect could keep some parts central Houston at or just above freezing. But the bottom line is that if you have tender plants, and do not live right on the coast, they are susceptible to freezing.

However, most of the Houston metro area will not face a hard freeze. That is when air temperatures fall into the mid-20s or below, at which point one needs to worry about pipes. So from an infrastructure standpoint, I’m not too concerned about this freeze. A hard freeze is possible for areas along and north of Highway 105.

A wintry mix on Wednesday night?

There is still some uncertainty about conditions on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A low-pressure system is likely to being a healthy chance of rain into the forecast late Wednesday night and into Thursday. Overall we may see as much as 1 inch of rainfall. The question is whether temperatures are cold enough on Thursday morning to support a wintry mix, be it snow, sleet, freezing rain, or what have you. Another factor is when the precipitation starts, as by mid-morning temperatures should be comfortably above freezing.

My sense is that most of Houston probably will just see rain, but that areas inland of Interstate 10 have a chance of seeing snow or sleet. I think it’s a low chance at this point, maybe 10 or 20 percent. But it’s something we’ll keep an eye on considering the potential for mischief with transportation on Thursday morning.