Eric Berger

In brief: Today’s post discusses sea fog, of which there is plenty near the coast this morning. Beyond that, the forecast is proceeding pretty much as expected, with much warmer-than-normal weather for February expected through Saturday. Some sort of cold front arrives later on Sunday, probably, to bring somewhat cooler weather.

Sea fog

The closer you live to the coast, the greater the chance you’re experiencing sea fog this morning. This is caused by warmer air—such as we’re experiencing now, with air temperatures of about 70 degrees near the coast—moving over somewhat cooler nearshore waters in the Gulf. This fog forms when warmer air moves over the cooler waters, and the air temperature falls to the dew point temperature, saturating the air.

A dense fog advisory is in effect until 9 am this morning, with visibility is some locations low as one-quarter of a mile. If you’re driving in this, please leave a little more space between vehicles, and use your low-beam lights. With warmer weather this week, fog will be possible in coastal areas through Friday or possibly even Saturday morning.

Tuesday

As noted in Monday’s forecast, the weather this week will vary little from day to day. We’ll see a persistent onshore flow all week, and this will lead to a warm and consistent pattern. High temperatures today will reach about 80 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. With dewpoints in the 60s, the air will feel somewhat sticky. Lows tonight will only fall into the upper 60s for most of the metro area.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Rinse and repeat. Expect warm days in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny days, and mostly cloudy and warm nights. We can’t entirely rule out rain chances, but they’re quite low, perhaps on the order of 10 percent each day.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend brings more of the same, however it now appears likely that some sort of front will push into the metro area on Sunday. The timing and strength are still to be determined, as well as the likelihood of rain with the front. At this point I’ll predict high temperatures in the low-80s on Saturday, a warm night, and highs near 80 degrees on Sunday with a modest chance of rain. Lows on Sunday night will fall into the 50s. All of this is in pencil, mind you.

Next week

With uncertainty about the strength of the front, and possibly a secondary push of cooler air mid-week, I don’t feel too confident about what to expect next week, except to say that it probably will feel more like February than this week does. I also think we’ll see more clouds and better rain chances. But as ever, the long-range details are fuzzy.

In brief: The forecast for this week is pretty boring, and unchanging. In fact, I give you permission not to check Space City Weather for a few days. We are going to be rather warm for February this week, with low rain chances. So this post addresses the question, is winter over?

Winter update

Sunday was gorgeous, and it felt much more like spring than winter. And the truth is, the entirety of the coming week is going to be quite warm with daytime temperatures around 80 degrees and mild nights in the 60s. So it is natural to ask, is that it for winter this year in Houston?

That depends. As the calendar goes, winter in Houston lasts from December through February. So we’ve got a few more weeks to go. Based upon the questionable prognostications from Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow during a ceremony on Sunday, we have six more weeks of winter. But what does the science of meteorology say?

As usual, we have few absolute answers. However, it does seem clear that Houston’s pattern will turn colder next week. Moreover, there is the potential for another significant outbreak of colder air during the second half of February. This is because our latest data indicates that the stratospheric polar vortex, which bottles cold air near the north pole, may split and allow some of this very cold air to come down into the mid-latitudes. The timing for this would be later in February, or early March.

So our advice is that, yes, this week is going to feel unseasonably warm for February. It’s definitely shorts-and-t-shirts weather. But don’t put away those sweaters just yet.

Monday

Temperatures in Houston this morning are generally in the lower 60s, and this is as cold as our weather is going to get until next Sunday or Monday. This pattern is due to a persistent onshore flow, and it’s not going to vary much this week. This kind of warmer weather at this time of year is supportive of sea fog, so there will be a chance of that most mornings this week. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s.

Tuesday through Friday

Not much changes for the rest of the week. Expect partly sunny days, with highs of around 80 degrees, and cloudy nights in the 60s. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain each day. Winds will be from the south each day at about 10 mph. With dewpoints in the 60s, it will feel moderately humid. And that’s basically the forecast. I should take a holiday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks more or less the same, with highs of around 80 degrees, lows in the upper 60s, and a mixture of clouds and sunshine. Southerly winds may pick up a little bit on Saturday from the south. At some point a front is going to come trundling through, but it’s not clear to me whether that will happen on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday.

Next week

Whenever said front arrives it will probably bring our first meaningful rain chances with it. The front will also usher in winter-like conditions back to Houston, probably driving low temperatures down into the 40s during the second half of next week. But the timing and intensity of such a cold snap remains pretty fuzzy, as we’re talking about a period 7 to 10 days from now.

In brief: Houston faces the potential for a few thunderstorms as a cold front rolls through the area this afternoon. Once it moves offshore we’ll see several splendid, sunny days through the weekend. Next week looks warmer, and decidedly spring-like.

Thursday

A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front is near Austin and Waco this morning, and it will move steadily southeast toward Houston today. It is likely to reach areas west (Katy) and north of Houston (The Woodlands) by or before noon, and push off the coast by around 4 or 5 pm CT. For most of us, I expect these to be briefly passing showers, but some areas may see thunderstorms and damaging winds. Ahead of the front expect temperatures in the lower 70s, dropping 10 degrees after its passage. Lows tonight will fall to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Friday

Sunshine returns on Friday, with much drier air. We’ll see gusty winds from the north, perhaps reaching about 20 mph, during the daytime. Highs will likely rise to near 70 degrees. As winds die down we’ll see our coldest night on Friday night, as temperatures dip into the 40s by Saturday morning.

Saturday

This will be a fine day for just about anything. Expect low humidity and high temperatures of about 70 degrees. Skies will be clear and sunny, with light winds. Lows on Saturday night will fall to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Sunday

As the flow turns more southerly, conditions on Sunday will be a tad warmer, with highs perhaps reaching the mid-70s. Skies will remain sunny, however. Lows on Sunday night will only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Next week

This will be the warmest week of 2025 so far, and feel much more spring-like than winter-like. Expect highs in the mid-70s to 80 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. With dewpoints in the 60s it will feel modestly, but not oppressively humid. Nighttime lows will be in the 60s. There probably will be some scattered showers on some of the days, but I don’t see a huge signal for any rain showers. It does look like some sort of front arrives by next Saturday or Sunday to cool us down, and remind us that it’s still February. My guess is that it knocks lows back into the 40s, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

In brief: There’s a little something for everyone in today’s forecast. We’ve got clouds and some rain during the next couple of days before a nice stretch of sunny and low-humidity weather to take us through the weekend. Only thing to watch for is the low-end potential of some storms on Thursday afternoon.

Wednesday

It’s a fairly dreary morning outside, with light, misty rainfall and areas of fog. This drizzle and fog may persist for much of the morning before we’re simply left with a layer of clouds. With a warmer, southeasterly flow in place we can expect temperatures to warm to about 70 degrees this afternoon, with increasing humidity levels. A chance of drizzle remains overnight, as lows only drop into the lower 60s.

Thursday

This will be a fairly warm day, despite the cloudy skies, as high temperatures rise into the mid-70s with humidity to match. Some scattered showers will be possible during the morning hours, along with gusty southeasterly winds. During the afternoon, a cold front will approach the area, likely reaching Katy and Tomball an hour or two after noon. What I think we’re likely to see is a broken line of showers that may possibly fill in as it moves through Houston during the afternoon. There is a slight chance of some severe weather with the front, and this is most likely to occur as it passes to the east of the Interstate 45 corridor. This includes the potential for severe thunderstorms or damaging winds. (There is a very low-end chance of hail or a tornado). For most of us, the front should be a fairly modest event, with drier air moving in behind. Lows will drop into the low 50s on Thursday night with clearing skies.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Sunshine is back on the menu, along with a nice slug of drier air and sunshine. Winds from the north will be a bit gusty on Friday morning, but should back down after that. We’re looking at highs on Friday and Saturday of around 70 degrees, with temperatures at night falling into the mid- to upper-40s. Sunday will be a little warmer, with highs in the lower- to mid-70s, but still with plenty of dry air. I can’t wait to take a long bike ride and soak up some sun.

Next week

The atmosphere turns a bit messier next week, but generally I expect we’ll see warm, partly sunny days with highs in the 70s, and nights with lows around 60 degrees. There may be some slight, daily rain chances. Some kind of front works its way toward Houston by the weekend, but an Arctic blast it will not be.