Eric Berger

Good morning. We’ve basically got one day to worry about—Wednesday—in what will be a week of otherwise quite wonderful weather.

Today

Monday’s high temperature of 88 degrees was a bit warmer than anticipated for Houston, and I’m expecting conditions to be similar today with highs pushing into the upper 80s. We’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies, and winds picking up out of the south, piling up moisture. Lows tonight will only fall to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

The region appears likely to have two chances of rain on Wednesday. During the morning hours, as warm, unstable air moves in from the Gulf of Mexico, we could see some showers and a few thunderstorms. The potential for more severe weather—and according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center the primary threat is hail—will probably come later in the day, after noon, and during the evening hours as a cold front approaches and moves through the metro area. Houston falls under the “slight” chance of severe weather in NOAA’s forecast, which means that while the potential for nasty weather exists, the overall likelihood of it affecting most people in Houston is relatively low. Nevertheless it’s something we’ll definitely keep an eye on for you.

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It is quite cool the morning across Houston, with low temperatures generally from around 50 to 55 degrees across the region, and only a bit warmer along the coast, thanks to a cool front that moved through the region early on Sunday. This exceptionally pleasant weather will last another day, or so, before our concerns begin to turn again toward the possibility of some heavier rain.

Today

After a chilly start, a sunny day will allow afternoon temperatures to climb into the low- to mid-80s by this afternoon. Winds will be moderate as they shift to come out of the south later this morning, but humidity levels should remain fairly low. Look for another marvelous evening, with temperatures cooling as the sun sets. Overnight lows will be about 10 degrees warmer than on Monday morning, but still seasonably pleasant for late spring.

Tuesday

As southerly winds pick up a little bit, humidity will return to the area. This, in combination with a mostly sunny day, will make for warm conditions for Houston. Look for highs in the upper 80s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday

A combination of factors appear to be coming together that will produce a very healthy chance of storms during the middle of this week. Moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico really gets going later on Tuesday night, which will provide plenty of potential for rain to the area.

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As we predicted might happen, Houston reached 91 degrees on Wednesday, the city’s first day reaching the 90-degree plateau of calendar year 2017—but certainly not the last. Since 1981 the city has averaged its first 90-degree day on April 30th, so it’s not all surprising that we reached that mark this week.

Today

Wednesday’s sizzling temperatures were enabled by drier air arriving along with a cool front during the afternoon hours, which allowed the mercury to briefly jump up about three or four degrees. This drier air also allowed us to cool off quickly last night, and temperatures have fallen into the 50s across most of the region today. Highs will rebound into the low- to mid-80s as the front washes out this afternoon. A warm flow from the Gulf will prevent lows tonight from falling much below 70 degrees.

Friday

A warm, sunny day with high temperatures likely reaching 90 degrees again. Or getting very close.

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We’ve got a dynamic forecast ahead, with potential record highs today, more warm weather to end the week, and a chance of storms Saturday night and Sunday morning. Let’s get to it.

Today

It’s going to be quite warm today—ironically because a cold front will be moving through Houston. Matt explained all the details in a special post Tuesday evening, but essentially the combination of a warm air mass already in place and drier air moving in with a cool front this afternoon could be enough to push high temperatures to 90 degrees this afternoon for parts of Houston. We think it will get close—whether we get that warm is dependent upon when the front and drier air arrives (earlier in the afternoon means we’ll be warmer)—and the entire region will be hot regardless.

The other question with today’s forecast is whether any rain showers are likely to break through the capping inversion. Looking at some different variables this morning, I think it’s going to be difficult for most areas to see much, if any rain. A few thunderstorms are possible if the cap breaks, but that would most likely be well north of the metro Houston area.

Thursday and Friday

A cool breeze by Wednesday evening should bring much more seasonable weather to the region by Thursday morning, with lows in the mid- to upper-50s across most of Houston except for the coast. But high temperatures will bounce back quickly into the mid-80s, and a warmer, moist flow will resume off the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday afternoon, or so.

This will set the stage for a very warm day on Friday, with high temperatures possibly reaching 90 degrees, again, under mostly sunny skies.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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