Eric Berger

Houston still seeking that first 90° day

May 25, 2016 at 7:26 am by Eric Berger

Houston has yet to hit 90° in 2016, and the city hasn’t gone all the way through May without such a temperature since 1970. But first we’ve got to get through today and that will be no easy thing.

TODAY

We’ll continue to see moist and humid surface conditions today, but with moderate high pressure in place we shouldn’t see too many showers develop as a result—perhaps just a few scattered storms with daytime heating. Depending on how much sunshine we see temperatures are going to rise into the upper 80s to possibly 90°. Houston’s first 90° day typically comes at the end of April.

THURSDAY

As an upper level storm system moves into Texas it’s likely to bring heavy rain across the central part of the state, including from San Antonio north through Dallas. Light rain is possible in Houston beginning Thursday morning, but the heavy rain will probably remain west and north of the metro area.

FRIDAY

As the upper-level system moves directly over Houston on Friday things could get a little more interesting. It still looks like the storm pattern will be more active over the northern part of the metro area, say from Montgomery County on north. Whereas central Houston might see 1 inch of rain, or less, these northern areas might get 2 to 3 inches, or more, along with some severe weather. Additionally the entire area is at risk for a “slight” chance of severe weather according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

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After a hot midweek, storms potentially return by Friday

May 24, 2016 at 7:03 am by Eric Berger

Good morning. Let’s take a look at our forecast for the rest of this week and Memorial Day Weekend.

TODAY and WEDNESDAY

For the last couple of days sinking air and a weak capping inversion have won out over moisture, which has had the effect of limiting any showers and storms to only very isolated coverage. That pattern appears most likely to hold today and Wednesday, with any rain that develops doing so on an isolated basis. This means we’re going to see partly sunny skies and warm days, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s, and possibly 90 degrees by Wednesday. Since we still haven’t hit 90° this month I’d like to see that streak continue, but we’ve got to get through Wednesday first.

THURSDAY

We’re going to see a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly during the afternoon hours. This will probably keep temperatures in the mid-80s.

FRIDAY

An upper-level storm system will move into Texas on Thursday and Friday, likely bringing 2 to 4 inches of rain for much of the northern part of the state and along the I-35 corridor. The question is how far this extends downward into the Houston metro region. I think we’re going to see some interaction between this system and the Gulf of Mexico moisture, but how much rain will that bring? Hard to say. Maybe only a few tenths of an inch of rain, maybe a few inches.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through the holiday weekend. (Weather Bell)

Any storms that do get going will have to be watched, because a sheared atmosphere will allow for the possibility of severe weather. At this point what we can say is that Friday and Friday night might be messy around Houston—stay tuned.

THE WEEKEND

By this weekend we’ll be back to pattern whereby we’ll see warm days in the upper 80s, with partly to mostly sunny days. In turn this daytime heating may drive the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. This, of course, is a very summer-like pattern.

Storms have brought Houston a cool May so far

May 23, 2016 at 7:05 am by Eric Berger

After heavy rains Saturday, and almost nothing Sunday, what can be expected for today? Let’s discuss that in a moment, but first lets look at our cooler-than-normal May.

Every year we generally get warm, dry Mays or, if the storm pattern is more active, cooler and wetter Mays. This month has obviously been the latter. So far this May has been nearly 3° cooler than normal. Moreover, consider these high temperatures over the last eight days: 80,73,83,81,70,80,82 and 85 degrees. Normally at this time of year we should be edging into summer.

A graphical representation shows warm/dry May vs. wetter/cooler May dichotomy nicely:

Average temperature in Houston from May 1 through May 22. (Brian Brettschneider)

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Without high pressure, expect Houston’s stormy pattern to continue

May 22, 2016 at 9:15 am by Eric Berger

On Saturday we all found out the high pressure ridging that was supposed to shield our area of from widespread showers and thunderstorms this weekend did not, in fact, extend all that far into eastern Texas. Today there is no such mystery. The high pressure and drier air is far to the north of our region.

This water vapor image shows reddish, drier air well to the north of Houston. We're on the wet side. (NOAA) — This water vapor image shows reddish, drier air well to the north of Houston. We’re on the wet side. (NOAA)

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