Heavy rain event on tap for at least part of the Houston area

Well, it’s a beautiful day today. Sunny, cool breeze, nigh perfect. But it’s springtime, and that means the potential for heavy rain and storms, and later this weekend Mother Nature is going to deliver. I want to give an idea of what to expect.

SUNDAY

For the most part, during the daytime in Houston on Sunday, I expect to see only light rain. Not that it’s going to be particularly pleasant outside, with southeasterly winds gusting to 25 mph. But the storms should hold off until at least the mid- to late afternoon hours. However by Sunday night a potent upper-level low pressure system should force air in a very moist atmosphere to rise, and create conditions conducive for very heavy rainfall. (The second day of the MS 150 ride has already been canceled as areas in central Texas will experience these conditions earlier than Houston.)

There’s still no consistency in terms of location for the heaviest showers, but while some areas may receive just light rain, other parts of the area get 2 to 4 inches, if not more, during the overnight hours. Whatever your going to do Monday morning, best to plan on the possibility of needing extra time. Hail and damaging winds are also possible with these overnight storms.

Precipitable water forecast for Sunday, at midnight, shows 200 to 250 percent above normal levels of moisture in the atmosphere. (Weather Bell)
Precipitable water forecast for Sunday, at midnight, shows 200 to 250 percent above normal levels of moisture in the atmosphere. (Weather Bell)

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Potential for very heavy rain from Sunday through Tuesday

Good morning. Temperatures are in the low- to mid-60s this morning and we’re going to have a couple of pleasant days before we have to worry about the potential for some very heavy rain.

TODAY and FRIDAY

We’ll see highs in the low 80s for the next couple of days with partly to mostly sunny skies. Mornings will be in the low 60s. Near perfect weather for mid-April.

SATURDAY

On Saturday we’ll begin to transition toward rain, as moisture streams in from the Gulf of Mexico. Under mostly cloudy skies we’ll see temperatures rise into the upper 70s, and strong southeasterly winds gusting up to 20 mph. This will ramp up atmospheric moisture levels, and while we can’t rule out rain on Saturday, most likely it is just setting the stage for the next few days.

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Lovely weather to end the work week, but heavy rain likely returns Sunday

As expected a large complex of showers and thunderstorms moved through the greater Houston area during the overnight hours, bringing 1 to 1.5 inches of rain for almost everyone.

TODAY

Showers will continue to be possible today for coastal areas and to the east of Houston, but for most areas the heavy rains have ended for good today. With mostly cloudy skies today we should see highs in the low- to mid-70s along with light northerly winds.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY

High pressure will make for great weather to end the work week, with highs near 80 degrees, morning lows in the low 60s, and partly to mostly sunny skies. This will be great weather for April.

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Heavy rain possible tonight and Wednesday, then pleasant weather until the weekend

Thus far what was supposed to be a “wet” week has mostly been a dud in the rain department. However I still expect that to change on Wednesday, when there’s the potential for heavy rain.

TODAY

A weak front is moving through Houston this morning, however it’s going to stall off the coast, and not going to bring much cool air. Highs will be around 80 degrees today, and even with the frontal boundary we’re going to see moisture pooling over coastal areas. This will allow for a chance of light showers today, and the potential for heavy rain tonight and on Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY

Because of the front’s proximity to the coast, very high moisture levels, and favorable conditions in the upper atmosphere we’re going to see rain between late Tuesday night and noon on Wednesday. For Houston I’d guess the heaviest rain comes between about midnight and sunrise. Coastal areas could see widespread totals of 1 to 2 inches of rain, with lesser amounts inland. In addition we can’t rule out some isolated flooding where rain showers are heaviest. That’s always a concern when the atmosphere is this moist. Fortunately as high pressure moves in by Wednesday evening we’ll see an end to shower activity.

Rain accumulation forecast for tonight and Wednesday. (National Weather Service)
Rain accumulation forecast for tonight and Wednesday. (National Weather Service)

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