Matt Lanza

After a pair of pretty nice days across Southeast Texas, we’re waking up to a warm, humid, mostly gray one today. But that will change. For those of you looking for last hurrah of really comfortable weather before summer, soak up this weekend.

Today & tonight

The region has had some gusty onshore winds overnight. Galveston has seen some wind gusts close to 40 mph since 2 AM, while inland locations have seen 25 to 30 mph gusts at times. Winds should diminish a bit through the day today before picking back up from the offshore direction tonight.

As far as weather, we’ll call it cloudy this morning. We may see more sunshine break out by late morning or afternoon, and it will remain warm to hot and humid. While a few showers or sprinkles could occur this morning, most of us will probably stay dry. The cold front itself will approach the region this afternoon. Right now, we’re expecting a broken, disorganized line of showers and a couple storms to drop into the northern suburbs 1-2 PM this afternoon. The storms may become better organized and cover more territory as they move through Houston proper and south of I-10 toward the coast late this afternoon.

Temperatures should drop from the upper-80s or near 90° back into the 70s behind the showers.

Severe weather via strong wind gusts and hail can’t be entirely ruled out today, but that risk has diminished a bit, and we expect any severe storms would be very isolated and mainly south and east of Houston.

By about 8 PM, most of the storms should be out of the immediate Houston area, but some showers and storms may still be ongoing for places like Lake Jackson or Matagorda. The front will continue to slowly push offshore this evening. However, showers will likely linger into the overnight for those areas south of Houston and Galveston, particularly toward Matagorda, maybe Freeport. Otherwise, it will just be mostly cloudy and breezy overnight. And it will turn much cooler.

Overnight lows tonight will bottom out from the lower-60s in much of the area and south of I-10 to the upper-50s to the north. Along with that breeze, it will feel quite cool late tonight and Saturday morning.

Saturday

With a good deal of clouds around much of Saturday morning and an abnormally cold air mass for May dominating the eastern half of the U.S., we’ll likely limp into the mid-70s Saturday afternoon. Those temperatures would be a solid 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. More sun is likely as the day goes on, especially for folks north of I-10.

Along with cool temperatures, expect a pretty steady, gusty offshore breeze. Winds over Galveston Bay will probably peak around 20 to 25 mph or so.

Mother’s Day

Stunning. Sunshine, comfortable humidity, comfortable temperatures. Look for a morning in the 50s to near 60 degrees and an afternoon in the upper-70s to near 80°, along with light winds. Thanks to all the mothers out there for all that they do for the world, and an apology to my mom in New Jersey who will be waking up to 30s on Sunday morning.

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If you like sunshine and pleasant temperatures, enjoy the rest of this morning. If you like sunshine and increasing humidity, enjoy the next several days. If you like rain, I sincerely apologize.

Today

Friday is opening in the upper-50s to low-60s, a fine morning with nothing more than a few passing high clouds. We will warm up quickly this morning and afternoon. Look for us to see highs in the mid-80s this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and mostly light to moderate winds.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look fairly similar in terms of weather. We could see some morning low clouds, especially on Sunday, giving way to mid to late morning sunshine. If we want to be overly cautious, we will mention that both mornings could see some very light rain or sprinkles underneath any of those low clouds. But the afternoons should be fine.

Winds will pick up a bit this weekend, with daytime winds out of the south around 5 to 15 mph, gusting to 20 mph, especially close to the coast and to the west of Houston.

High temperatures on Saturday will peak in the mid to upper-80s and Sunday in the upper-80s. Some spots north and west of Houston will likely test 90 degrees by Sunday. Morning lows will be generally in the 60s, though Sunday could be around 70 degrees or so.

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Since the weather is not terribly busy, let’s start with a couple housekeeping items today. First, the National Weather Service surveyed the damage from Wednesday’s tornado in Onalaska yesterday. They found that a tornado traveled from at least near Waterwood, on the west side of Lake Livingston through at least Barnes, in northeast Polk County.

That’s a little over 30 miles, though it could change as more reports are examined. The survey team found mostly EF-1 and EF-2 damage in Onalaska, but they did find low-end EF-3 damage in Paradise Acres, just north of Highway 190 on the northeast shore of Lake Livingston. Maximum winds were estimated to be 140 mph.

We’ll update if any new significant findings emerge.

One of the other issues we have had that we’ve touched on from time to time, is dry weather. The latest drought monitor from yesterday shows the northern side of the Houston area mostly drought free, but steadily increasing drought conditions as you go south of the city.

The entire Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida, which has been dominated by a ridge of high pressure for most of the winter and spring, is under some kind of abnormally dry or drought condition. Until that stagnant pattern can break or the daily afternoon thunderstorms of summer fire up, we will probably continue to see most organized storms pass us by to the north. We will keep tabs on things and let you know if that does change of course.

Alright, onto the forecast.

Friday

Most areas are crystal clear this morning, but some patchy fog has shown up in a couple spots. Either way, that will clear and we should expect mostly sunshine today with highs making a run for 90° this afternoon.

As a cold front begins to approach the area this evening, it could be carrying some thunderstorms. Areas north of Houston, unfortunately, stand the best chance of seeing these. Those storms could be locally strong to severe north of Houston, but they should be quick moving and the main threats would be isolated damaging wind or hail. Storms should begin to weaken as they approach Houston, and the most likely areas to see rain this evening would be along or east of I-45.

Bottom line: With a cold front approaching this evening, don’t be shocked to see a little rain or hear some thunder for an hour or two.

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What a week it has been. The last several days have been just fantastic as we prepare for the days of heat and humidity in summer. Onshore winds have returned however, and another drawn out period of unsettled weather begins today. For those yearning for rainfall, especially south and southwest of Houston, this looks to be another potentially frustrating event. We break it all down below.

Today & tonight

Clouds have become a little more widespread overnight and this morning, and today should see more clouds than sun for most areas. Look for showers to develop through the morning and into this afternoon as a cold front begins to approach from the north and west.

Showers should not be particularly heavy or significant, but a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. There’s a good chance many of us may not see much of anything today, but have an umbrella at the ready if you’ll be out later today.

The front itself should wait to get through the Houston area until this evening. Shower chances should generally drop off tonight, and it will just be mostly cloudy with perhaps a little drizzle or mist in spots. It will be interesting to see what temperatures do behind the front. Like we saw last weekend, it got rather cool, so although I would expect us to only drop into the low-60s in Houston, we could see upper-50s in spots to the north overnight. Coastal areas may not get much below the upper-60s, as the front stalls nearby or just offshore.

Saturday

By later Saturday morning, our cold front should begin creeping back north as a warm front. With a disturbance passing by simultaneously, we should see showers and storms begin to break out across parts of the area. Initially the focus should be west of Houston, but it may move into the Houston area as the afternoon goes on. As has been the case recently, the heaviest rain chance may be to the north of Houston.

The last several storms tracking across the region have produced seriously mixed results for our area. In fact, if you just look at Highway 59/I-69, you can get two very different narratives on either side of the highway. West or north of 59 has been rainfall rich, with 150 to 200% of normal rain over the last month. That steadily drops to near 25% of normal at the coast on the other side of the highway. There’s nothing special about Highway 59, but it conveniently works as a boundary here.

The last few severe weather risks have also been fairly underwhelming in our area too, with a few exceptions. It’s important to understand that with these types of storm systems in our area, there a lot of things that have to come together to generate storms. This one looks to be no different. And yet again, the best chance for more rain will be to our north and west.

So look for scattered showers, thunderstorms, and downpours on Saturday. Many of you won’t see anything on Saturday, but some folks may see a shot of storms. Severe weather risk is low but not zero. If we do get storms going, look for strong winds or some hail to be the primary risks.

As far as temperatures go, look for us to warm into the 70s on Saturday afternoon.

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