After a mostly cloudy Thursday, expect sunshine to return in force today and for much of the upcoming weekend. Buckle up for a mini-temperature roller coaster though, as we crank the heat this weekend before our next cold front on Monday.
Today and Saturday
Out in the Gulf, we have Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 chugging off to the northeast this morning.
The National Hurricane Center says PTC 16 will race off to the northeast toward the Florida Panhandle by tomorrow morning. (NHC/NOAA)
While it won’t directly impact southeast Texas, behind it, dry air is locking into place over our area. Other than a few lingering clouds south and east of Houston this morning, that spells sunshine today. Look for temperatures to be pleasantly warm and pop up to the low-80s this afternoon. Clear skies tonight may allow for a little patchy fog to develop in inland parts of the region. After that lifts on Saturday, we will see sunshine and temperatures warm up from the lower or middle 60s into the mid- to upper-80s. A stray shower is possible toward evening, mainly south of Houston.
Sunday
Sunday should see a mix of sun and clouds, though the clouds will gradually populate more of the sky on Sunday afternoon. A few showers can’t be entirely ruled out on Sunday, as a more aggressive push of warm air off the Gulf lifts north.
High temperatures on Sunday look more like late summer than autumn, with mid- to upper-80s across most of the region. (NWS forecast via Weather Bell)
It will feel like late summer on Sunday, with temperatures warming from near 70° in the morning into the upper-80s Sunday afternoon. Some spots could top off around 90 degrees or so.
In the wake of Tropical Storm Imelda, Eric and I wanted to reintroduce the Space City Weather Flood Scale, as well as place that memorable storm in its proper context. We’ll tackle Imelda in a moment, but first just a a few words about the slightly revised flood scale.
(Space City Weather)
When we first introduced the flood scale, we didn’t really go too much depth on the various stages. We now realize that leaving any ambiguity in the interpretation of this was probably a mistake, so the goal here is to explain our scale in more depth and detail so readers have complete clarity on what it is meant to convey.
Origin & what it does
In the wake of Hurricane Harvey and all the flooding events in recent years, it occurred to me that we needed a way to put future rain forecasts in context with past events. Eric and I decided on a five-stage, or category scale. The scale is not meant to be perfect for everyone. Nor is it meant to replace forecast advice or direction from the National Weather Service or emergency managers. All it is meant to do is to set a realistic expectation ahead of a rainfall event that we feel could produce newsworthy flooding. We just want to attempt to help people navigate their anxieties regarding flooding that we know are widespread after recent years.
The scale is meant to characterize, in the general grand scheme of things, how the flood will be remembered for in Houston. Yes, your car may flood in a nuisance street flooding event, “only” a stage 1 on our scale. For you, personally, that may be a stage 5 life event. While that would certainly be unfortunate, for the greater Houston area, nuisance street flooding is rather common, and Stage 1 events happen at least a few times per year. What we want to do is make sure people understand that an upcoming rain event is more like that than a Memorial Day 2015 event, a Tax Day 2016 event, or an Imelda, and vice versa.
What it does not do
This scale is not going to tell you if you will experience flooding. Every flood event is unique. Just because you may have received 40 inches over 5 days and not flooded during Harvey, that does not mean you also won’t flood during a storm that only produces 6 inches of rain that falls in a single hour. Flooding in any given rainstorm depends on numerous factors, including quantity of rain, duration, intensity, neighborhood drainage, and conditions in place prior to the rain. Since no two storms are identical, you cannot always rely on past storms to tell you how future ones may impact you in your backyard.
The historic examples are not meant to apply perfectly to any one individual neighborhood. We may classify an event as stage 2 because it caused localized flooding in The Woodlands or Kingwood or Sugar Land. For some folks in those neighborhoods that flooded, that historic example may feel like a stage 3 or 4 event because of the problems it caused you and your neighbors. In other neighborhoods, you may not have noticed a drop of rain. What we want to do is put the event into context in the Greater Houston area. This scale is a perfect example of “your mileage may vary.” We recognize that, but we also know there is no perfect scale. This is the closest thing we could think of to a one-size fits all solution.
The scale is just attempting to characterize the “personality” of the flooding event we expect.
Let’s take you through each stage and discuss what each one means and what the past events did.
Besides caring about the weather here at Space City Weather, Eric and I also care about the Astros. So with that in mind, we want to update our readers on the weather for games 3, 4, and 5 of the American League Championship Series up in the Bronx. And believe me, weather is going to play a big role in the balance of this series.
Game 3: Today 3:08 PM
This afternoon’s game should go off trouble-free. Expect a good deal of sunshine for the game. First-pitch temperature should be in the mid-60s with light winds.
Game 4: Wednesday 7:08 PM
There has been talk about game 4 for a few days now, and we are here to tell you: We don’t think game 4 will be played on Wednesday.
A look at a loop of the GFS model here shows a coastal storm developing tomorrow evening south of Long Island.
The very latest GFS model shows a potent coastal storm in New England tomorrow that will bring rain to New York City beginning Wednesday afternoon. (Tropical Tidbits)
This one really cranks up in the evening and will deliver heavy rain and strong winds to New Jersey, New York City, and much of New England, possibly ending what has been a pretty decent foliage season in that corner of the country. More importantly, for the Astros and Yankees and their fans, this throws a big wrench into game 4 plans. Rain should begin in New York City around 2 PM or so. Here’s a look at the rainfall expected from the GFS model between 8 PM and 11 PM EDT, within the scheduled window for Game 4.
Forecast rainfall from the GFS model between 8 PM and 11 PM EDT on Wednesday, or during the scheduled time of the Astros game. (Weathernerds,org)
That suggests that there will still be heavy rainfall in the Bronx during the evening hours. Unless something dramatically changes, we think game 4 will be postponed and moved to Thursday. Oh, and in addition to rain, this storm will produce some pretty gusty north winds in NYC, perhaps topping out around 30 to 35 mph on Wednesday evening. So, yuck.
Game 5 (or game 4 makeup): Thursday 7:08 PM
Look for a breezy day in the Big Apple on Thursday. Winds will be diminishing Thursday evening, but we should still see sustained west or northwest winds at 15 mph or so. West winds would be straight out to right-center field, while winds out of the northwest would be from left to right across the outfield, meaning the short porch in right could get some love in this one. But, with that in mind, temperatures will be notably colder Thursday evening. Expect first pitch temperatures around 55 degrees, dropping into the low-50s through the game. The combination of a breeze and cooler temperatures will give this one a decided autumn feel.
Friday
If game 5 gets pushed to Friday, I think the start time would depend on whether the NLCS is still ongoing. Either the matinee slot or the evening slot will feature cool, breezy, dry weather. Winds should be from the northwest around 10 to 15 mph (possibly gustier with a day game). Temperatures would fall from the low-60s to upper-50s in a day game. In the evening, we would see temps drop from the mid- to upper-50s into the lower-50s.
We won’t make any predictions on which team a Wednesday rainout would benefit. But it certainly could alter how the managers approach their strategy this afternoon and in games 4 or 5. We shall see! We hope you find this helpful, and let’s go Astros!
Happy cold front day again, Houston! We have already had our first front of the season, but this will be our first real legitimately autumn-like front today. It will be warm and muggy this morning but cool and breezy this afternoon. It’s a “dress for two seasons” kind of morning.
Today
As of 5 AM today, the cold front was located northwest of Houston.
Near 80 degrees in Houston this morning, but behind the front just northwest of Bryan, it drops into the 50s! (Weather Bell)
Ahead of the front in Houston, it’s near 80 degrees and humid this morning. It was just moving through College Station as I write this, where temperatures will drop from the upper-70s to the mid-60s over an hour or two.
Showers have popped up ahead of the front in a few spots, but most rainfall today will hold off until the front arrives. The front should get to Waller County and western Montgomery County by 7 AM or so, into northwest Harris County, Katy, and The Woodlands around 8 AM, through Houston between 9 and 10 AM, and southeast of Houston to the coast by 11 AM or Noon.
Behind the front, look for gusty winds and scattered showers or storms. Total rainfall will be hit or miss, with some places seeing just trace amounts and others seeing perhaps a quarter or half-inch of rain. Some light rain may linger once the steadier showers pass.
If the early week front disappointed you because of the lack of temperature drop, then you’ll probably enjoy today’s front. Temperatures will drop into the 60s behind the front and stay there or slowly fall for the rest of the day. Look for clouds and possibly some showers to linger into the afternoon. Along with that, expect wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, not problematic but certainly making it feel very fall-like.
Tonight
Ahhhhhh…
Chilly tonight! Low temps in the 40s north and west, 50s in Houston, and near 60 at the beach. (NWS via Weather Bell)
It will still be a bit damp tonight, along with a breeze, but if you’ve been waiting for autumn, here you go. Expect lows to range from the 40s up north and west of Houston to the 50s in the city and suburbs to 60 or just shy of it near the Gulf.
