Matt Lanza

Tuesday evening update on Houston rain & tropics

Good afternoon and evening. I wanted to offer a quick update on Houston’s rain situation, as well as Invest 95L.

Tonight through Thursday

The Flash Flood Watch that had been in effect for the region has been cancelled. We did see some significant rains southeast of Houston this morning.

We do expect more rain and thunderstorms to develop tonight, but the heaviest should primarily remain offshore. That said, watch for locally heavy downpours in spots and at times, especially southeast of Houston along the coast tonight and tomorrow. Some short-fused street flooding can’t be entirely ruled out. But we don’t expect widespread issues tonight or Wednesday. With storms offshore tomorrow morning, inland showers and storms will probably be a little sluggish out of the gate, but do expect at least a few downpours tomorrow around the region. Eric can narrow this down with a little more specificity in the morning.

We’ll see more scattered storms on Thursday, and we’ll pin that down for you a little better tomorrow.

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Rain, rain (won’t quite) go away

After an on-again/off-again dry summer in the Houston area, the last 10 days have felt like we’ve been dodging a continuous faucet. We will continue to deal with this into later this week and weekend.

Quick situational awareness for you:

  • A Flash Flood Watch is in effect generally along and southeast of US-59, so primarily for the coastal counties in our area until later today. A watch means flooding, especially street flooding, is possible.
  • We’re expecting periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, through tomorrow, with a bit more possible Wednesday and Thursday.
  • Our Caribbean/Yucatan tropical disturbance (Invest 95L) remains disorganized this morning. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives it a 60% chance of development as it comes across the Gulf later this week. We think the ceiling on intensity is low, but this system does bring more locally heavy rain risk to parts of Texas.

Through Thursday

As I write this morning, heavy rain is south and east US-59, mainly impacting coastal Brazoria County and much of Galveston, and Chambers Counties.

This morning’s radar loop shows the heaviest rains south and east of Houston, a trend that should hopefully continue pushing offshore today. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect south & east of the city through this afternoon. (College of DuPage)

A Flash Flood Warning is posted for the west shore of Galveston Bay through Texas City back into western Galveston County. That goes until 7 AM, as they’ve seen healthy amounts of rain in that area overnight.

Look for rain to continue this morning, though with perhaps a gradual focus more to the east or offshore. It’s possible areas north and west of Houston stay quiet much of this morning before some scattered downpours this afternoon. The most likely area to see rain continue at a healthy pace at times will be along the coastline or near Galveston Bay.

Additional rain of one to three inches is possible along the coast and just inland. If rain hugs the coast longer than expected this morning and afternoon, totals could be higher in Galveston through Freeport. Areas north and west of Houston will see more sporadic, scattered amounts of less than an inch in most cases.

An additional 1-3″ of rain will be possible through early Wednesday morning south and east of Houston, with lesser, more scattered amounts north and west. (NWS)

More rain will be possible tonight, once again along the coast, however we expect the heaviest rain tonight to stay south and east of Houston and mostly offshore. Flash Flood Watches are expected to expire as long as that remains the case We’ll re-evaluate that later today and probably have a brief update for you this evening and let you know if NWS extends the Flash Flood Watch through tonight for the coast.

From this vantage point, the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday is pretty straightforward: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on both days. We still need to iron out specifics and details, but expect more pockets of locally heavy rain, though they aren’t expected to be widespread at this point. Just a generic, “It’s probably going to rain at a few points between both days” will have to suffice for now.

Clouds and rain are at least holding down temperatures. Look for temperatures to range from the upper-70s to around 80° if it stays cloudy and dreary all day to the mid-80s if we see some occasional sunshine.

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Locally heavy rain for Houston early this week; watching late week tropical wave

Sorry for a later update than I would have hoped. Cable/internet outage due to storms and daddy duty called!

Lots of rain in and around the Houston area today, so we want to provide you a quick refresh on what’s going on with this rain, the tropics, and what to expect to start your week.

Monday & Tuesday rain

Radar as of this evening shows rain winding down across the area. Total rainfall over the last two days has been variable, with some places seeing minimal amounts and others seeing 2-3″ or even a little more.

Total rainfall since Saturday has been on the order of a half inch or less to three inches or more depending on your location. As usual, Houston rains are quite variable. (Harris County Flood Warning System)

Expect a mostly quiet night tonight. But, as we go into tomorrow, a number of things may come together to produce another round of heavy rainfall in the area. Eric will have more on the timing and the where tomorrow morning, but I would have the umbrella by the door tonight at the ready before you head out for work or school.

Look for more showers and thunderstorms in the area Monday night or Tuesday. It’s tough at this timescale to narrow down specifics, but suffice to say, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A Flood Watch isn’t posted for the area, but depending on how we do tomorrow, we may need one Tuesday. Street flooding is the main concern with this event.

Total rainfall from tonight through Tuesday evening is expected to average about 1-3″ across the area. Some may see more, others less, however. (NWS)

How much rain? On average, we expect most folks will see another 1-3″ on top of what’s fallen. Since “average” is just a combination of extremes, that means some folks may see less than an inch and others may see four or five inches of rainfall. Again, we don’t expect widespread problems and street flooding is the biggest concern right now.

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Soggy at times this weekend; watching tropics

As Eric has been conveying, this weekend is not going to be the most optimal for the Houston area. We’ve got rain chances in abundance. Thankfully, we don’t anticipate any serious problems from the rain, but if you have outdoor plans this weekend, you may need some alternative options. Let’s walk through it.

Today

Yesterday saw a good bit of rain mostly south of the metro area, down toward Wharton and Angleton and west toward Brookshire, with a few storms here and there elsewhere.So far, quiet this morning, with just a few showers down in Matagorda County. As the day goes on, I would expect scattered showers and storms to fire up with daytime heating, beginning at the coast and spreading inland. Not everyone will see rain, but those that do could pick up a quick half-inch to inch of rain in a cooling downpour.

Expect highs near 90°, but a little cooler if it happens to rain a bit more at your location.

Weekend & Monday

So, let’s start with this: I don’t think this weekend will be a complete washout. If you have outdoor plans, I might not completely abandon them. But I would absolutely have an alternative in place. I think Saturday may be a better day than Sunday, unless you live northwest of Houston. It won’t rain all the time and everywhere this weekend, but where it does rain, it may be heavy at times with some patchy street flooding possible.

Who are we expecting to see the most rain on which day? There will be a weak cold front draped inland over Texas. No, it won’t usher in cool, dry air, but it will act as a focal point for the rains. On Saturday it may be well north and west of the city, out toward Columbus and north to College Station and over into Walker or Madison Counties. By Sunday, it creeps closer to Houston.

The NWS rainfall forecast through Sunday evening is just shy of 1″ on average in most of the Houston area, but there’s a better chance at over an inch both along the immediate coast and northwest of the city. (Weather Bell)

I still think the focus of showers on Sunday may be to the northwest of Houston, but perhaps out toward Katy and up to The Woodlands and toward Livingston, so a bit closer. So it’s conceivable that both days, the majority of the rainfall stays northwest of the Houston area. We’ll still see some scattered showers and storms regardless though.

On Monday that front may creep through the area while falling apart. So, again, scattered to numerous showers and storms with daytime heating, now across the Houston area. Look for temperatures to top off in the upper-80s most days on average (90+ if you don’t see rain, cooler if you see a good deal of it), with lows in the mid-70s.

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