Matt Lanza

Some active weather is likely to continue over the next 24 hours, so we’ll get right into that before talking about a mostly nice weekend to follow.

Early morning Friday

Radar as of 5:40 this morning, shows minimal amounts of showers around Houston. There’s some rain well to the north of Conroe that is falling apart.

Scattered showers and storms were pressing east of Austin, more toward the Brazos Valley. Heavier rain and storms (non-severe) in San Antonio were sliding east toward Victoria and places west of Houston. Over the next few hours, these showers will gradually migrate toward Houston, but for the most part, our early morning looks fairly quiet.

Friday late morning & afternoon

Weather modeling has been some kind of inconsistent over the last couple days in terms of what and where with rainfall. So to some degree, this leaves us flying partially blind today. We can tell you a couple things with confidence: First, there will be plenty of moisture available for storms today. This is probably the most we’ve seen all week, so it should mean coverage of storms today will be at their highest of the week for Houston. Second, we need a trigger, and with numerous boundaries in the area and more coming from the San Antonio area, that should be enough to get showers and storms going later this morning and this afternoon.

What we cannot tell you with much specificity, and what is naturally most frustrating to us (and you I’m sure) is exactly where and when the heaviest rains will occur. The image above is a sample from two short-range, high resolution models we look at each day. They are valid for the same time: 1 PM this afternoon. The HRRR (at left) shows an organized heavy cluster of storms. The NAM (right) shows scattered showers. I am leaning toward the HRRR idea right now, but basically at this point, the best advice we can give you is to bring an umbrella and be ready to potentially deal with some storms and heavy rain from late morning into this evening.

In terms of severe weather, it is possible we see some strong winds or hail, but the biggest concern with these storms will be heavy rain and localized street flooding. Any storms could produce rain rates of 1-2″ per hour or more which, if over one place, could lead to some street flooding.

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I remember a time back in February or January, where we had a string of like seven or eight weekends in a row with rain chances and clouds. We have gone ahead and mostly made up for those lately. And this weekend will add to that recent legacy.

Today

Today will probably be one of the last nicest days until autumn, unless we can sneak another decent front in here in early May. Expect wall to wall sunshine. We’ll warm up from the 60s this morning into the mid-80s this afternoon. Humidity will remain on the low side. Air quality may be poorer than usual today, and today has been declared an Ozone Action Day, so keep that in mind if you’ll be heading out to enjoy the weather.

Saturday

It looks as though Saturday will be almost a carbon copy of Friday. It will be just a touch more humid, though probably not enough to really notice. Expect temperatures to warm from the low-to mid-60s Saturday morning into the mid-80s once more. If you’re riding in the BP MS 150, expect a fairly steady 5 to 10mph tail or occasional cross wind.

We could see a few gusts up to 15 or 20mph on some of the more exposed ridges along the route. Look for similar conditions Sunday.

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After yesterday’s rain and storms, we cleared out, and this morning we’ve cooled off a good bit.

Today and tomorrow should feature Chamber of Commerce weather for all of Southeast Texas before we warm up and reintroduce rain chances next week. Let’s jump in.

Today and Saturday

Wall to wall sunshine should be expected for both days, with nothing worse than a few passing clouds. If you’re looking for something to complain about, you could probably be a bit perturbed by the wind today, which will gust at times around 25 miles per hour inland or even somewhat stronger at the coast. Wind Advisories are posted for Friday along the coast.

Otherwise, it should be relatively sublime. Expect temperatures to warm into the lower or middle 70s this afternoon. We’ll have another cool, pleasant night tonight, with temperatures dropping into the 50s in Houston and near the coast. Some of the northern and western suburbs and more rural locations will probably dip into the 40s tonight.

On Saturday, we should warm up to about 80 degrees or so. Humidity should stay comfortable through Saturday afternoon.

Easter Sunday

We expect sunshine to continue for Easter Sunday. Look for morning lows to start in the low-60s. We will warm up to around 80 degrees once again. The difference between tomorrow and Sunday will be the humidity, which should be a bit higher and slowly increasing through the day on Sunday.

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We’ve arrived at the doorstep of another weekend, which naturally means another chance of rain and storms. Let’s discuss how things should unfold.

Today

First, we’ll end the week on a mostly quiet note. Look for a good deal of clouds today. A few showers were seen on radar this morning down toward Matagorda Bay. Models aren’t especially bullish on rain chances today, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see some passing showers or even a thunderstorm, especially along and southeast of US-59 today. Temperatures will range from near the upper-70s to perhaps 80 or so with any sunshine this afternoon.

Tonight

Clouds will thicken up further as onshore flow ramps up. As moisture increases over the area, I expect a good deal of showers to develop and lift from south to north across the region. A thunderstorm is also possible. Most of us should just see a little rain tonight and Saturday morning. At this point nothing significant is expected. Low temperatures will be quite warm tonight and Saturday morning, barely dropping below 70°, if at all.

Saturday

Like last weekend, I am going to set you up with a user’s guide Q&A to this weekend’s storm.

When is it going to rain on Saturday? Overnight showers may try to diminish on Saturday morning. But any break should be relatively brief New showers and some thunderstorms will form in the later morning, especially on a line from Victoria to Sealy to Conroe to Lake Livingston. The best concentration of storms will be north of I-10 and probably along or north of Highway 105. This would basically be Conroe, Huntsville, Lake Livingston, Madisonville, etc. That’s also where the best chance for severe weather will be in our area. The really nasty stuff will be way off to our north, up toward Lufkin and Shreveport, LA. More on severe weather in a second.

You’ve mentioned severe weather. What do I need to worry about this weekend? The Storm Prediction Center has adjusted their outlook again today.

Most of the Houston area is in a “slight” risk for severe weather. That increases dramatically to enhanced and then moderate as you head toward Lufkin and Shreveport. As mentioned above gusty winds and hail will be the main severe weather concerns this weekend around Houston. At this point, it would appear that Saturday’s storms will not be of the same coverage or intensity as last weekend’s severe storms were in the Houston area. Still, we’ll keep tabs on things to make sure that doesn’t change. As far as tornadoes go, they are unlikely in and around Houston.

So what about the Houston area? What should we expect? While the heaviest storms and rain will lift off to the north of Houston, I do expect at least a line of at least broken storms to develop Saturday afternoon.I would probably expect that line of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, most likely between 2 and 6 PM from west to east across the Houston area. I don’t expect it will rain that entire time, but look for a short period of some heavy rain and thunder as that passes through. To reiterate, if storms become severe, the main threats will be strong winds and hail. The most likely portions of the area to see this will be to the north and east of Central Houston. Again, this shouldn’t be like last weekend, but we will keep watch.

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