Matt Lanza

Locally heavy rain for Houston early this week; watching late week tropical wave

Sorry for a later update than I would have hoped. Cable/internet outage due to storms and daddy duty called!

Lots of rain in and around the Houston area today, so we want to provide you a quick refresh on what’s going on with this rain, the tropics, and what to expect to start your week.

Monday & Tuesday rain

Radar as of this evening shows rain winding down across the area. Total rainfall over the last two days has been variable, with some places seeing minimal amounts and others seeing 2-3″ or even a little more.

Total rainfall since Saturday has been on the order of a half inch or less to three inches or more depending on your location. As usual, Houston rains are quite variable. (Harris County Flood Warning System)

Expect a mostly quiet night tonight. But, as we go into tomorrow, a number of things may come together to produce another round of heavy rainfall in the area. Eric will have more on the timing and the where tomorrow morning, but I would have the umbrella by the door tonight at the ready before you head out for work or school.

Look for more showers and thunderstorms in the area Monday night or Tuesday. It’s tough at this timescale to narrow down specifics, but suffice to say, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A Flood Watch isn’t posted for the area, but depending on how we do tomorrow, we may need one Tuesday. Street flooding is the main concern with this event.

Total rainfall from tonight through Tuesday evening is expected to average about 1-3″ across the area. Some may see more, others less, however. (NWS)

How much rain? On average, we expect most folks will see another 1-3″ on top of what’s fallen. Since “average” is just a combination of extremes, that means some folks may see less than an inch and others may see four or five inches of rainfall. Again, we don’t expect widespread problems and street flooding is the biggest concern right now.

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Soggy at times this weekend; watching tropics

As Eric has been conveying, this weekend is not going to be the most optimal for the Houston area. We’ve got rain chances in abundance. Thankfully, we don’t anticipate any serious problems from the rain, but if you have outdoor plans this weekend, you may need some alternative options. Let’s walk through it.

Today

Yesterday saw a good bit of rain mostly south of the metro area, down toward Wharton and Angleton and west toward Brookshire, with a few storms here and there elsewhere.So far, quiet this morning, with just a few showers down in Matagorda County. As the day goes on, I would expect scattered showers and storms to fire up with daytime heating, beginning at the coast and spreading inland. Not everyone will see rain, but those that do could pick up a quick half-inch to inch of rain in a cooling downpour.

Expect highs near 90°, but a little cooler if it happens to rain a bit more at your location.

Weekend & Monday

So, let’s start with this: I don’t think this weekend will be a complete washout. If you have outdoor plans, I might not completely abandon them. But I would absolutely have an alternative in place. I think Saturday may be a better day than Sunday, unless you live northwest of Houston. It won’t rain all the time and everywhere this weekend, but where it does rain, it may be heavy at times with some patchy street flooding possible.

Who are we expecting to see the most rain on which day? There will be a weak cold front draped inland over Texas. No, it won’t usher in cool, dry air, but it will act as a focal point for the rains. On Saturday it may be well north and west of the city, out toward Columbus and north to College Station and over into Walker or Madison Counties. By Sunday, it creeps closer to Houston.

The NWS rainfall forecast through Sunday evening is just shy of 1″ on average in most of the Houston area, but there’s a better chance at over an inch both along the immediate coast and northwest of the city. (Weather Bell)

I still think the focus of showers on Sunday may be to the northwest of Houston, but perhaps out toward Katy and up to The Woodlands and toward Livingston, so a bit closer. So it’s conceivable that both days, the majority of the rainfall stays northwest of the Houston area. We’ll still see some scattered showers and storms regardless though.

On Monday that front may creep through the area while falling apart. So, again, scattered to numerous showers and storms with daytime heating, now across the Houston area. Look for temperatures to top off in the upper-80s most days on average (90+ if you don’t see rain, cooler if you see a good deal of it), with lows in the mid-70s.

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One more day of widespread clouds & rain, Gordon stays to our east

After a wild Labor Day that saw Galveston and coastal communities see upwards of five to ten inches of rain or more, we’re starting with more rain down that way today. But we do have good news for those ready for a break.

Today

Radar this morning as of showed a narrow band of heavy rain pointed onshore across Galveston Island and the southwest end of the Bolivar Peninsula, now inland as of 5:50 AM to about League City. Additional moderate to heavy rain had prompted another Flash Flood Warning just outside of Port Arthur.

Radar as of 5:50 AM showed heavy rain southeast of Houston, just inland from Galveston, along with steady rain just west of Port Arthur. (GRLevel3)

Some of the rain near Port Arthur may try and come a bit west, so folks on the east side of I-45 could see a steady moderate to occasionally heavy rain for a time. Locally heavy rain will continue at times near Galveston, which could cause some relapse in street flooding again. A Flash Flood Watch is posted for the coastal counties through today.

Further inland, including most of Houston, we’ll see a smattering of showers and thunderstorms around the region this morning and afternoon. Look for gradual improvement later today. Clouds and showers will hold back temperatures once again. We only hit 78° officially on Labor Day, our coolest day since the Fourth of July, and only the second time we’ve failed to hit 80 degrees since late April. It feels like it’s been hot forever. Who’s ready for a cold front? We’re looking hard for one, but alas, we don’t see much chance of that happening over the next ten days or so at least.

Wednesday & Thursday

Both days look like a return to more typical late summer weather, with a daily shower and storm chance driven by the sea breeze off the Gulf and daytime heating, so mostly of the hit or miss variety. Any storms will be capable of heavy downpours of course, but coverage should be fairly average for this time of year; a bit less intense than we’ve seen the last couple days. Look for mid- or upper-80s where we see some storms on those days and upper-80s to low-90s in drier locations.

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Heavy rains wind down, Gordon intensifies in the Gulf

Starting close to home and working outward this afternoon: Heavy rain to the tune of 6-10″ or more along the immediate coast has caused flooding from Freeport through Galveston to High Island. As of early afternoon, High Island had seen over 11 inches of rain, Jamaica Beach had seen north of ten inches, and Galveston was nearing seven inches so far. This has created waterlogged scenes in Galveston today.

So what’s to come?

Radar as of 1:30 PM today shows heavy rain gradually diminishing in intensity along the coast and inland.

The heaviest rains from this morning have subsided. Periods of rain and a few isolated downpours will continue into the middle and late afternoon. (College of DuPage)

Expect rain to generally wind down here, though some isolated heavier downpours or thunderstorms will be possible into late afternoon. But those would be the exception rather than the rule. Continued residual street flooding is likely to continue in Galveston and generally along the coast.

Tonight

Another round of rain is possible, especially south and east of Houston, so the flooding threat, while perhaps not as great as today, will not quite trend to zero. There’s still a bit of uncertainty in how much rain falls and exactly where, but in general, another inch or two seems possible along the coast, with lesser amounts inland from tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

Over the next 24 hours, an additional few inches of rain will be possible along the coast, with lesser amounts inland. (NWS Houston)

Things do look to quiet down around here for the middle of the week, though rain chances don’t quite get to zero. More on that tomorrow.

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