Matt Lanza

A pretty nice June day in Houston today

Monday wasn’t totally delightful (we still popped above 90°), but it sure felt a little nicer with some drier offshore winds. Today, we will lower temperatures and humidity a bit more.

Today

Look for a really, really nice June day today. It’s rare that we can say that here in Houston, but this is probably as close to as good as it gets this time of year. Look for high temperatures to hit the upper-80s under a mix of sun and clouds. Dewpoints have already dropped into the 60s and could be on their way into the 50s for some of us, which means the humidity will feel extremely more tolerable than it has since sometime in May.

The NAM model forecast for 1 PM today shows dewpoints in the 60s, with risk for 50s wherever you see the blue color. (Weather Bell)

We often talk about dewpoints as being a better gauge of humidity, or generally how it really feels.

Roughly, for Houston:

  • 70s means uncomfortable, or typical summer
  • 60s means humid, but not terrible
  • 50s means mostly comfortable
  • 40s or less means very comfortable or dry.

In my opinion, dewpoint works better than relative humidity as a way to figure out how comfortable it is. And Houston will be teetering on the edge of comfortable today and tonight.

If there are any gripes about today’s forecast they would be the cloud cover, which could be a little thick at times. A stray shower is also possible, mainly well south and west of Houston, toward Victoria.

Wednesday

Expect a good deal of sunshine on Wednesday. There will be a chance of showers or a storm as a reinforcing cold front drops through from morning into early afternoon. We will start the day cool for June, likely in the 60s in much of the area, particularly outside the city and away from the coast. High temperatures will top off in the low-90s in Houston. Humidity will remain lower than average, but a couple ticks higher than today.

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An odd week of lower June humidity ahead for Houston

Yesterday was the hottest day of the year for Houston thus far, as IAH Airport officially checked in at 97°, besting the previous high for 2019 of 96° one week ago. The good news? We are done with that kind of heat for a little while. And we will also lose a good bit of our humidity this week too.

Today

Our somewhat rare June cold front has pushed through the region, and it will continue to progress south through the day today.

A cool front will push most of the way south across Texas today, allowing the early summer heat to loosen its grip on the state. (NOAA)

Offshore winds have arrived, and they will help lower the temps and humidity today just a bit. Expect highs in the low-90s this afternoon, a good bit cooler than we experienced yesterday. An isolated shower could crop up, especially south and west of Houston, but I think most areas will be dry with a mix of clouds and sun.

Tomorrow and Wednesday

Both days should see mostly sunny skies. I’m not going to say that Tuesday will feel delightful, but it’s not going to feel like high summer, that’s for sure. Expect tolerable humidity, with dewpoints in the 50s possible through the day. If you missed it on Friday, dewpoints in the 50s have only occurred during 0.8% of June hours since 2010. So this is a bit of a rare event. Temperatures will hover in the upper-80s Tuesday afternoon as well. It’s not often Houston fails to hit 90 in summer with sunshine. We will add back a couple degrees on Wednesday, back up around 90° or in the low-90s in the afternoon. Humidity should remain tolerable.

Morning lows will probably be in the 70s again Tuesday morning. But there is a chance that a lot of locations outside the city and away from the coast will dip well into the 60s Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Morning joggers, take note!

The NWS is currently forecasting lows in the 60s in much of the area for Wednesday morning! (NWS via Weather Bell)

As far as rain chances go, there should be at least a few showers around, primarily on Wednesday. The highest rain chances will be to the south and west of Houston, closer to Matagorda and Victoria.

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Hot weekend, but yes, we’re eyeing a rare June cold front next week

Last night saw some wild storms in parts of the area, especially southeast, south, and west of Houston. The storms did cause some damage, primarily west of Houston.

You can click here for a rundown of storm reports. The real show for many of us came after the storms, with a true spectacle of light, color, and clouds.

Today

My feeling is that the bulk of today will be calmer than what we have seen in the back half of this week. Yes, showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon once again. We would favor the highest rain chances today south and east of Houston, along the sea breeze as it moves in from the Gulf. So if you’ll be on the beach today, just be aware. Otherwise, it should be partly to mostly sunny today with a good deal of heat and humidity. Look for us to get into the low-90s on average with a few mid-90s possible.

Weekend

This weekend is going to feature legitimate summer heat. Expect both days to have plenty of sunshine. We should hit the mid-90s on Saturday and the upper-90s on Sunday. The humidity will make it feel like 100-105° at times tomorrow and probably just shy of 110° on Sunday.

Heat index values will push or exceed 105° at times this weekend. This map is for 4 PM Sunday. (NWS via Weather Bell)

This would be especially true near the bays and coast after the sea breeze moves through, raising humidity levels. Regardless, you’ll want to take it easy this weekend if outdoors. Drink plenty of water, and try to be in air conditioning if possible during the peak heating of the late afternoon and early evening. Our nighttimes will also be warm & muggy, with low temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-70s and around 80° near the coast.

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A soggy morning commute for most of the Houston area

We got through most of last night without any issues in Houston. Storms lined up well southwest of Houston near Matagorda Bay after midnight and have arrived across most of the metro area early this morning.

Radar at 5:40 AM shows widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the Houston area. All this is moving slowly north and east and will be with us most of the morning. (RadarScope)

Radar as of 5:40 AM shows moderate to heavy rainfall across most of the area (with the exception of Freeport and north of The Woodlands). But everyone should see at least some rain through the morning.

As the day progresses, this rain will taper off or become more scattered in nature generally north and west of US-59/I-69. But heavy rain should continue into this afternoon generally south and east of there. A Flash Flood Watch remains hoisted for most of the area. We also have most areas south and east of US-59 in a “high risk” for flash flooding from the Weather Prediction Center today.

The Weather Prediction Center arm of NOAA has issued a “high” risk for flash flooding today for the southeast part of the area. (WPC/NOAA)

The WPC doesn’t hand out high risks easily, so that speaks to this system’s potential. A quick reminder from us: Please use caution when out and about today. It would be good to limit travel when you can on days like this, but if you are commuting or have to be heading out somewhere, be very careful and never drive through flooded roadways.

Total rainfall through this evening is expected to be on the order of 1 to 3 inches north and west of US-59. Some folks, particularly up in far northern regions (Conroe, Navasota, Cleveland to suggest a few) may see a bit less. The trouble spots are expected south and east of US-59. We expect 3 to 6 inches on average south and east of there, but some places will see higher amounts on the order of 6 to 10 inches or even a bit more.

Through this evening, rainfall amounts will average 1-3″ northwest of Houston and 3-6″ southeast of Houston, with higher amounts likely near the coast and bays. (NWS Houston via Weather Bell)

There are still some uncertainties with how this will exactly play out, but in general this will work for today as a forecast. This outcome would likely cause a good deal of street flooding in parts of southeast Harris, Galveston, Brazoria, and Chambers Counties. Bayou or creek flooding is also possible, especially along Clear Creek or perhaps some of the bayous in southeast Harris County.

The bottom line today: Flash flooding, particularly street flooding is likely in areas south and east of downtown Houston at times today, especially through early afternoon. Some more serious street or even creek and bayou flooding is also possible in a few places, depending on exactly how much rain falls and how quickly it does. Rain should taper off a bit, or at least become more infrequent toward mid-afternoon.

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