We’ve got some active weather ahead this weekend, so let’s jump in and tell you everything we know right now.
Today
Right off the bat, if you have plans today, we do not foresee any serious issues. But (there’s always a “but”) that said, areas of fog have developed this morning across the entire area.
This map shows observed visibility (in miles) at various locations across the area, as of 5:30 AM Friday. It’s foggy, so give yourself a couple extra minutes out the door today if possible. (NWS)
The fog inland should gradually lift this morning, but it could persist along the coast well into this afternoon. Dense fog advisories are posted until 9 AM inland and until Noon at the coast. We’ll be partly to mostly cloudy and warm otherwise today. Highs should approach at least 80 degrees, if not the low-80s.
Tonight
For Houston, we don’t anticipate anything significant tonight, though a few showers or thunderstorms could develop after midnight, primarily north of I-10 and west of I-45, particularly out toward Sealy or Columbus up through Brenham or College Station. And even then, I really don’t think it would be anything other than very isolated through early Saturday morning. Look for low temperatures to only drop into the upper-60s.
In addition to an isolated shower or storm, fog should redevelop along the coast, possibly spreading inland again, though it shouldn’t be quite as widespread as today.
After mostly nice weather this week, we’re heading into the weekend warmer, but with a cold front on the way. That leads to unsettled weather. Let’s discuss.
Today
I don’t think we have any real issues today, but it wouldn’t be the biggest shocker in the world if a handful of us see a shower this morning as a weak disturbance pushes through. The best chances will be north of Houston, but ultimately, I do think most of the area will stay rather dry today. Onshore winds will continue to pump up temperatures, humidity, and provide a good deal of clouds. Expect us to reach about 80 degrees this afternoon.
Saturday
Tomorrow should behave a lot like today early on. Expect clouds, warm temps, humidity, and a chance of a shower through late morning. It gets trickier in the afternoon. The cold front is going to arrive in Houston sometime around mid- to late-afternoon. Because of that, expect a “dress for two seasons” day on Saturday.
This is the NAM model depiction of temperatures at 3 PM on Saturday. This would have the southeastern half of the region near 80 degrees, while the northwestern half has dropped into the 60s and even some 50s. Dress for two seasons tomorrow. (Weather Bell)
The morning will be warm and humid, and at some point in the afternoon, it’s going to get chilly. We may reach 70-75° in the far northern reaches of the area, call it Huntsville or College Station. Once the front passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s and 50s. In Houston itself, we will probably hit 75-80 degrees, with temperatures falling into the 60s after 3-4 PM. South of Houston should get to about 80 degrees away from the immediate coast, and the front will arrive in the evening, allowing temperatures to join the rest of the region in the 60s or 50s.
For everyone, expect just a few showers as the front moves through, but the temperature drop will be the hallmark of this frontal passage.
The weather pattern over Houston is making up for months and months of wet, dreary weather since last fall. As Eric alluded to yesterday, we’re going to end up below normal on rainfall for the month of March. I’ll take it one step further: Since late January, we have been exceedingly dry.
Rainfall since late January has been no better than 70 percent of what is normal over most of the area. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)
For Harris County, we have only averaged about 70 percent of what is normal over the last 60 days. Go a bit west of Houston, and parts of Central Texas from San Antonio through Austin are averaging about 50 percent or less of normal. Thanks to weeks and months of wet weather prior to the last 45-60 days, we are not in drought, nor are we even abnormally dry according to the latest Drought Monitor report. With an El Niño event ongoing and likely to continue, it would be surprising for this drier weather to continue (El Niño springs are usually fairly wet in Texas). But this will be a story to watch over the next few weeks.
Today
Unfortunately, our nicest week of the year so far has been marred by varying and unrelated forms of air quality issues. It has either been the situation in Deer Park with the ITC Terminal fire (which at least this morning seems under control), obscenely high levels of pollen, smoke from numerous agricultural fires across the Southeast leading to increased particulate matter, or as in today, high levels of ozone.
Visible satellite imagery from late Thursday shows numerous agricultural fires in the Southeast. The red dots represent clearly visible ones; there are likely others. (College of DuPage)
The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has declared today an ozone action day, meaning we should see high levels of ozone and generally poor air quality. These types of days aren’t necessarily infrequent in Houston, but it’s just compounding our issues here of late. But, hey, other than that, it should be great today! Expect wall to wall sunshine with some passing high clouds today. We should manage upper-70s to around 80° in some spots.
We will get to the forecast in just a second. First, we’ve received a number of questions, asking about the recent “bomb cyclone” and what the heck it means. If you’re an NPR listener, you may catch me discussing exactly that today on Texas Standard.
What is it? A “bomb cyclone” by definition is an area of low pressure (or an “extratropical cyclone”) whose minimum central pressure drops by an average of 1 mb per hour for 24 hours. In other words, it has to drop at least 24 mb over the course of a day or less.
Was this recent storm actually a “bomb cyclone?” Yes. Here are the official surface analysis maps every three hours between 10 PM CT on Wednesday (0300Z) and 1 PM CT on Thursday (1800Z).
Official NWS surface maps from 10 PM Tuesday through 1 PM Wednesday show the storm in the Rockies deepening from about 995 mb to 968 mb, qualifying it as a meteorological “bomb,” or “bomb cyclone.” (National Weather Service)
The storm went from about 995 mb at 10 PM on Tuesday to 968 mb at 1 PM on Wednesday. That’s a 27 mb drop over 15 hours, which allowed this storm to meet the technical definition of a bomb cyclone.
Is bomb cyclone just some fancy new term the media made up to hype weather? Not at all. The term has informally been around since at least the 1940s in Norway (where a lot of modern meteorology has its roots). The technical definition came from a 1980 journal article by MIT meteorology professor Fred Sanders.
Lowest observed SLP in S.E. Colorado occurred in Lamar and was measured at 970.4, Altimeter 28.73 #cowxpic.twitter.com/I0cpjLgaH5
So why are we only hearing about it recently? Are these becoming more common? If you catch me on “Texas Standard” today, you’ll hear me say that I believe social media has taken what used to be conversations that only occurred between scientists or super hardcore weather geeks and thrust them into the public square. In other words, instead of these conversations with cool terms like “bomb” or “polar vortex” or “derecho” only occurring in sciencey circles, they’re now occurring in forums where journalists or the public can eavesdrop. I don’t know that these types of storms are necessarily more common in 2019, though that may change in the future. It’s mostly that these terms just accidentally end up out in the wild for everyone to use, rather than only among a select few.
I hope you found this informative! Let’s move on to our forecast.
Today
In the wake of yesterday’s front, look for a mix of clouds and some sunshine early today, though those clouds should thicken up as the day progresses, especially south of I-10. It will be cooler and breezy today, with temperatures likely peaking around 60 degrees or so this afternoon. Some locations will likely struggle to get out of the upper-50s with enough clouds.
Rodeo weather
A light jacket will be a good accessory tonight, as temperatures will drop back into the middle or upper-50s this evening before the show. Heading home, you’ll see temperatures down into the low- to mid-50s under mostly cloudy skies. A few sprinkles or some drizzle can’t be entirely ruled out.
Weekend
It won’t be beautiful, but at least a fairly quiet weekend is expected. On Saturday we should see plentiful clouds unfortunately, meaning it will be rather cool. We also can’t entirely rule out some showers or a period of light rain, especially along the coast and south of Houston on Saturday. Sunday’s rain chances should shift even further south toward Matagorda Bay, mostly. I don’t really think rain this weekend will be a big issue if you have outdoor plans, but it’s just something to know may happen.
