Matt Lanza

A (mostly) fine day for a parade in Houston

Let’s be honest, it could be cold, pouring, snowing, whatever and Houston would find a way to enjoy today. So whatever we have to say about the weather, it’s a fine day for a parade. Lots of other things going on this weekend too. Let’s hop to it.

Today

So, overall today shouldn’t be too bad. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures in the middle 80s. We managed to hit 88° officially yesterday, which is the 9th hottest November day on record in Houston (the other 8 days we hit 89°). Last time it was this warm in November officially? One year ago. We hit 88° on November 2nd and 3rd of 2016. Hobby Airport hit 90° Thursday, tying their warmest November temperature on record (1934 and 1973 being the last years to see 90° at Hobby). Further north, Dallas hit 94° yesterday, breaking their previous all-time (back to the 1890s) hottest November day by *five* degrees. If you’re wondering if this is unusual for November, it is.

Anyway, with a pretty weak little disturbance passing through North Texas today, we will probably see a smattering of isolated showers this afternoon. I don’t expect them to be significant in coverage or intensity. If you’re headed to the Astros parade downtown, I wouldn’t necessarily expect rain, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it did rain for a few minutes.

Weekend

The weather pattern for the next several days looks pretty stable over Southeast Texas. This should yield a mix of sun and clouds both days. Don’t be shocked if clouds are prevalent in the morning, before breaking up in the afternoon. Also, morning fog, locally dense, is likely the next few days, so use caution if you’ll be out and about early in the day. Temperatures will top off in the middle 80s inland. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an 87°, 88°, or 89° show up though in a few spots on either day.

In Galveston for the Lone Star Rally? It looks just fine. Expect low 80s for highs both days. Morning lows will be in the mid-70s in Galveston.

Fine weather this weekend for the Lone Star Rally (NWS Houston)

Elsewhere, morning lows will be in the low 70s on average. We should typically be in the 50s right now.

Oh, and rain chances? They aren’t zero, but they are very, very low for most areas to the point that we wouldn’t even bother mentioning them. Go about your plans without much worry this weekend.

By the way, Houston’s other postseason team, the Dynamo play the Timbers out in Portland Sunday at 6:30 for a chance to advance to the Western Conference Championship. It looks like a typical early winter day in Portland for the match: Damp, though perhaps not raining too heavily, with temperatures in the 40s. So let’s keep the championship vibes flowing.

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Houston beyond Hurricane Harvey

On Tuesday evening, just as the Astros took the field for game one in Los Angeles, I had the pleasure of attending a Baker Institute event at Rice University featuring Dr. Jim Blackburn. “Beyond Hurricane Harvey” was a discussion and Q&A with Blackburn, who is the co-director of the Severe Storms Prevention, Education, and Evacuation from Disaster (SSPEED) Center at Rice. During Tuesday’s event, Blackburn basically laid out his vision for how we need to discuss and tackle Houston’s flooding problem from this point forward. Many of these ideas were incorporated by Harris County Judge Ed Emmett in the plan that he unveiled on Wednesday. Nevertheless, here is a summary  and some of my takeaways from Tuesday’s event.

Tuesday night’s event was held at the Rice University Baker Institute by their young professionals group. (Matt Lanza)

As a quick note, Blackburn has published two papers in the wake of Harvey. Much of what he covered Tuesday night is covered in these papers too. The first addresses initial policy ideas after Harvey. The second describes the public/private non-profit entity described below. Both are very informative and useful reads, and I would encourage our readers to get involved in this. As I said in my own Harvey post-mortem: It is now time for a new generation of Houstonians to work out new solutions to this complex problem.

Turning point: Blackburn opened by calling Harvey a turning point in Houston’s history. This is basically our moment to get this right. We all know we live in a city that is prone to flooding. We can never stop that from happening, but we can manage it in ways that will reduce the financial and human toll that has accompanied recent flooding events. Houston has an opportunity now to become the world leaders at weather and climate resiliency. While showing a chart of hurricane tracks impacting the Texas coast, Blackburn related the story of Indianola and Galveston. Indianola was wiped out by a hurricane in 1886, and we know the story of Galveston after 1900. Blackburn believes that Houston’s future as a leading American and global city may hinge on what we are able to accomplish over the next several months. If we bungle the response to this disaster, we could be looking at a steady economic decline in our region.

Blackburn referred to this situation as a new “Jesse Jones moment” for Houston. Speed couldn’t be emphasized enough. We need to get these solutions moving now, while the wounds from Harvey (and previous events) are still fresh and raw. The longer we wait, the less likely we’ll accomplish meaningful action. Amusingly, Blackburn shared the “Off the Charts” report published by Harris County Flood Control after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.

We were in the same boat 16 years ago, but we still have a long way to go. (HCFCD)

Here we are again. We need a vision, a plan (we seem to have those moving forward), and now we need to mobilize the public and persuade our elected leaders to take action immediately. Blackburn was asked whether Houston’s infamous lack of zoning contributed to the problems from Harvey. He made the point that it was not a major cause, but what is a problem is the typical, almost “closed door” nature of Harris County government. Lots of items get addressed really quickly without much discussion at various county meetings. The population of this area is also somewhat agnostic toward government participation. We’re not engaged enough. For problems as big as this, everyone needs to be firing on all cylinders, taking politicians to task, asking questions, demanding transparency. It’s easy to be cynical, but in this situation, it’s important not to be.

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Record low watch for Houston continues

The record low watch continues this weekend for Houston. We’ll go into more detail on that below, but what a change the last couple weeks have been. The weather this time of year can get a little chaotic in the temperature department, and we’ll certainly see more of that present itself going forward. Let’s jump in.

Today & Weekend

As of 6:30, the front is just pushing (or about to push) through La Grange, College Station, and Madisonville north and west of Houston.

Using a map of dewpoints, here’s a rough outline of where the front is located as of 6:30 AM. Dewpoints in the 30s and 40s indicate much cooler and drier air on the way. (NWS)

The front should work from northwest to southeast across the Houston area between about 8 AM and Noon. A brief shower or two is possible, but I wouldn’t really expect it, as it just appears that this front lacks much punch in that department. The best chance for showers will be east of I-45 and closer to Louisiana, where the front can tap into a little more instability and moisture. Temperatures today will stay generally steady in the 60s before finally giving in and dropping into the 50s late.

We might see some lingering clouds or a shower at the coast this evening, but then things should clear out. Behind the front today, it’ll be brisk. Expect north winds of 15-20 mph at times this afternoon and tonight (a bit stronger at the coast). Temps will tumble tonight into the lower 40s on average. It will be warmer at the coast and cooler (30s perhaps) in pockets north and west of Houston.

Saturday will be crisp. Expect highs generally in the lower 60s, but it will be sunny and beautiful with a gradually diminishing wind. Saturday night into Sunday morning is our shot at a record low. Sunday morning’s record low is the last “low hanging fruit” of the year. The current record low of 39° (set in 1910) is the “warmest” record low in Houston until April. Our record lows seem to hit an inflection point right around October 30th and take a step down.

Houston’s list of record lows takes a steady step colder after Sunday. (NOAA/NWS)

So we’re going to see our first strong autumn/early winter air mass basically right on cue. Expect upper 30s north, low 40s south on Sunday morning. There will be pockets of mid 30s north and west of Houston, and there may even be low 30s for the typical cold spots like Conroe or Huntsville back into the Brazos Valley.

NWS forecast lows for Sunday morning are quite chilly! (NWS/Weather Bell)

After a cold start, Sunday looks delightful, with sunshine, calmer winds, and temperatures topping off in the upper 60s.

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There is more autumn to come, Houston

Good morning. Thanks to Eric for covering me the last few Fridays as I took some time to step away from weather forecasts and explore Utah, which is an absolutely incredible place. And there was snow, for real! Anyway, it’s good to be back in Houston, and it would be better if the Astros were to win tonight. Let’s do some weather, as it is an active, changeable period the next several days.

Today

An area of heavy rainfall formed overnight southeast of Houston dumping nearly 7″ of rain (including 4.5″ in an hour) near Friendswood along Clear Creek.

Localized but extremely heavy rainfall has occurred this morning southeast of Houston. (Harris County Flood Control)

The heaviest rain has shifted north, but Clear Creek may still rise a bit close to bankfull in spots but not out of banks. Street flooding is likely to continue a bit longer this morning in this area.

Radar as of 6:20 AM shows the rain weakening a bit and lifting further north. (GRLevel3)

 

So what does the rest of today bring? We’ll probably see continued periods of rain and thunderstorms east of Houston south to near Galveston. Rain will come in spurts, but it could be heavy at times. I think the heaviest will be east of where the serious rain was earlier this morning, and the rain should be intermittent enough in places like Friendswood, Dickinson, and League City to not cause any further serious problems. That said, there may be some pockets of street flooding issues in parts of Chambers or Liberty Counties today, but they’ll probably be isolated.  Elsewhere, keep an umbrella at the ready. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms in the area, especially through early afternoon.

Temperatures will be held back a bit with clouds, but since we’re starting much warmer than yesterday, we should crack the lower 80s this afternoon (a few places west of the city may do middle 80s). We may see a few showers around this evening or overnight, but far less coverage and intensity than this morning. Most of us will stay dry tonight.

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