Matt Lanza

Weekend weather and another look back at Hurricane Harvey

A lot of stuff to get to today. We’ll go through the forecast first, and then jump into the National Hurricane Center’s final report on Hurricane Harvey, released yesterday.

Today & Saturday

We’re thinking today will be a rather uneventful weather day. We should see a good deal of cloud cover around, with limited (if any) sunshine. Temperatures are starting the day much warmer (around 50° in most spots, roughly 15° milder than yesterday at this time), and they’ll likely finish warmer than yesterday too. We should manage about mid-60s this afternoon.

In terms of rain, the bulk of today should be dry, but there could be some sprinkles or showers.

Things do change tonight as onshore flow continues, driving in ample moisture. A weak disturbance passes offshore, and this combination will lead to increasing rain chances as the night goes on. The best chance for the most shower activity will be south and east of US-59. The general rule of thumb will be that the closer to the coast you get, the better rain chances will be. Saturday will see shower chances continue in the region, but I think they’ll be highest both in the early morning and later afternoon. And once again, they’ll be highest south and east of Houston. Still, have an umbrella handy Saturday. It will be warm again, with highs near 70 degrees.

Total rainfall tonight and tomorrow will be highest well south and east of Houston. (Weather Bell/WPC)

Generally, we’re only expecting about a half inch or less in and around Houston. Some coastal locations could see upwards of three-quarters of an inch or so of rain. Higher amounts will be possible as you move toward Beaumont-Port Arthur and Lake Charles. Also, watch for some patchy dense fog along the coast (or even in some inland spots) later today through Saturday night.

Sunday into next week

A cold front will pass through the area Saturday night without much punch. You’ll notice it more Sunday with lowering humidity and gradually decreasing clouds. Expect temperatures to top off near 65° or so on Sunday. Sunday night will be chilly, with lows back into the 40s in the area. Monday and Tuesday continue to look splendid, with highs in the low-60s and lows in the 40s. We’ll see a warm up with increasing clouds and minor rain chances after Wednesday.

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Houston emerges from winter’s deep freeze

Today’s the day. Yesterday was more of a false start than anything. We had a modest cloud deck that just setup shop overhead on Thursday, causing temperatures to stay in the 30s all afternoon once more. Today, regardless of clouds, we will finally leave the frigid weather behind this afternoon. But that does come with some rain chances.

Today

It’s starting off cold once again this morning, but not nearly like we’ve seen. Officially, we didn’t get below the mid-30s overnight. And the entire region is pretty uniform this morning, averaging between 35 and 40 degrees as of 6 AM.

A very uniform temperature map in Southeast Texas, with mid-30s to around 40° in most spots. (NOAA/NWS)

Clouds are firmly entrenched over the area, which has helped keep temperatures above freezing just about everywhere. These clouds will continue to hold firm today. Meanwhile, a system off the coast will bring scattered showers to the area through the day. El Campo and Bay City are already seeing some of that this morning. They will spread north as the morning goes on. The odds for rain will diminish as you head north and west of Houston however. So in this scenario, rain is more likely in League City than, say, Hempstead. Included with the rain will be a slight chance for thunderstorms near the coast. Nothing serious, but don’t be shocked if you hear some thunder in Galveston or south toward Matagorda Bay.

Rainfall amounts should average about a quarter of an inch south of I-10 and east of US-59 south of Houston. A few isolated spots could see a half-inch or so. North and west of Houston, most areas will see a tenth of an inch, give or take through Saturday morning. Temperatures today will need some encouragement, but they should top off in the lower or middle 50s by later this afternoon.

Weekend

Saturday should feature mostly cloudy skies with a slight shower chance. Most of us probably stay dry Saturday, but there could be a brief shower at virtually any point during the day anywhere in the region. That chance continues Saturday night and it may increase a bit during the day Sunday. On Sunday night, a cold front will sweep through the region, bringing a short period of showers and a chance of thunderstorms, especially along and north of I-10. Total precipitation this weekend will vary, averaging around a quarter to half-inch of rain in most spots; some could see a bit more, some a bit less.

But break out the shorts, as temperatures will feel downright warm (only being half sarcastic). Look for Saturday morning to start in the low-50s, warming into the upper-60s to around 70° Saturday afternoon, maybe even a bit warmer in spots. Sunday starts in the upper-50s to low-60s and warms into the lower or middle 70s!

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Back to your regularly scheduled Houston winter

After finding our way into the middle 50s yesterday afternoon, we’ve emerged from significant cold air for Houston to more standard cold air for Houston. And we’ll be warming up further this weekend. Let’s move into the details.

Today & Saturday

After our first four day streak of 30° or colder since 2011, we start today a bit milder. We’re starting Friday generally in the upper-30s or low-40s. We will warm up to the mid-50s this afternoon, or probably around to a couple degrees warmer than what we did on Thursday.

We’ve got clouds still moving across the area this morning.

This fun satellite setting lets you see clouds easier at night. You can just see the back edge of clearing (as of 6:20 AM) in the top left part of the image. Decreasing clouds today. (College of DuPage)

The clouds will be prevalent for a few hours this morning. There is some precipitation falling from them west of Houston, but it isn’t reaching the ground in most places. A stray sprinkle or ice pellet could fall this morning, but it won’t amount to anything. As the day goes on, we’ll see more sunshine, and it should end up a fairly nice afternoon.

We’ll continue with a theme of sunshine Saturday as well. Expect morning temperatures to start in the lower 40s and warm up to the low-60s tomorrow! If you’ve been waiting for a couple nice, fairly comfortable Houston winter days, Friday and Saturday will be acceptable.

Sunday

Onshore flow returns to the picture later Saturday into Sunday morning. Sunday will start with temperatures in the 50s and work on up to about 70 degrees or a little warmer. Water temperatures near the coast have dropped dramatically recently. The entrance to Galveston Bay is only around 50° this morning, and it has been in the mid to upper-40s at times this week.

Water temperatures near the Gulf Coast are quite chilly. (NOAA)

Although water temperatures aren’t quite that cold offshore, with the increasing air temperatures and humidity passing over cooler water, we’ll likely see some dense fog develop, especially around Galveston Bay on Sunday. There could be a shower or two Sunday, but for the most part it looks to be a dry, mostly cloudy day.

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Brief burst of snow or sleet this evening for Houston

This has been a rocking winter for H-town if you like snow or sleet. We had some surprise sleet across much of the area this morning, and if what we’re seeing is correct, we’ll be talking about some more surprise sleet or even snow this evening.

As of 4:15 PM Tuesday, some light snow is showing up on radar between Houston and Austin. Though that is likely not yet reaching the ground, as it slides east and organizes a bit more, we could see that change.

Radar as of 4:15 shows light snow falling (though likely not reaching the ground just yet) between Houston and Austin. (Radarscope)

All of this is being driven by a pretty potent little disturbance a few thousand feet up that will help deliver snow or sleet to Florida and Georgia tomorrow and eventually New England on Thursday. That slides into Houston after 9-10 PM or so tonight.

I’ve been watching the HRRR model literally all day today, and with each run it has boosted or maintained its depiction of what happens over Houston as the disturbance exits tonight. The HRRR is a really short-term weather model that we use in the 0-18 hour timeframe for forecasting. By no means is it perfect, but it’s been tough to ignore the trend it has shown today, somewhat corroborated by some other modeling this afternoon.

Here’s a forecasted radar depiction from the HRRR model this evening at 10 PM.

The HRRR model indicates some snowflakes or a mix of snow and sleet (ice pellets) this evening across Houston, especially east of I-45. (Weather Bell)

This shows a quick burst of snow or mixed snow/sleet as it moves through. The prime time for this to occur would be 7 PM-1 AM. After that, it will move offshore and skies will clear out allowing temperatures to plummet.

So what to expect? 

  • A brief (1-4 hour) burst of snow or sleet this evening is possible.
  • Snow or sleet could actually come down at a healthy clip for a short time in a few places.
  • Any accumulations would be minor and probably not cause severe problems for travel, but (there’s always a but) just keep in mind that this may occur tonight if you have to be on the roads after, say, 8 PM and drive with extra care just to be safe.
  • With cold temperatures in place and several days of cold built up, if it were to snow a little heavier than expected, it could lead to a dusting on roads (similar to what we saw southeast of Houston this morning from the sleet).
  • Any snow or sleet ends from northwest to southeast from 11 PM to 2 AM, with clearing overnight, followed by bitter cold overnight and Wednesday morning low temps in the Houston metro area. A hard freeze is likely over most of the metro area tonight.

Please share any of your observations tonight with us here, Facebook, or via Eric or Matt’s Twitter feeds!