Matt Lanza

Houston heat without much rinse, just the repeat

96, 96, 97, 94, 98, 96, 94.

Those are not winning lottery numbers. They are our high temperatures so far this June. I wish I could say it would get better, but it does not appear that is in the cards. However, we will continue to mention at least some increasing chances for a return to more typical summer weather, which could theoretically mean more typical daily showers and storms than we’ve seen lately. We’re optimists at heart.

Friday & Saturday

For now, there’s not much change expected. Friday should be another hot and dry one. There may be a brief downpour southwest of Sugar Land down 59 or along the coast. But aside from that, just expect sun, clouds, and high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. I do think the coverage of showers on Saturday afternoon will be at least a little closer to average for this time of year. Odds favor most of us staying dry, but again, optimism. Here’s a look at just one model, the NAM, which suggests the best chances of a bit of rain west of I-45 tomorrow.

The NAM model is a bit aggressive with rain chances west of Houston on Saturday. The takeaway is that the rain chances are not quite as low tomorrow. (Weather Bell)

So don’t be entirely shocked to see some rain tomorrow, but don’t necessarily be too excited for it either. High temperatures Saturday should be low- to mid-90s again after morning lows in the middle 70s.

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Hurricane season is here—and we’re all ready

In our second story to mark the beginning of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Matt discusses how meteorologists are preparing for life after Harvey. If you missed part one, you can find it here.

In early October of 2017, I had just completed an invigorating 4 mile, 2,100 foot climb to Observation Point in Zion National Park, Utah. It marked one of my prouder moments as a person, because as hiking goes this was considered strenuous for someone like me who isn’t exactly crushing it at the gym every week. And I conquered it. The view was spectacular, but unfortunately, the cell service was great too. At the top of this beautiful overlook, an email was pushed to my phone, asking if I was certain that then Tropical Storm Nate was not going to threaten Texas. And I was reminded that the 2017 hurricane season was almost never going to end, nor was the job of a meteorologist. Even in the middle of nowhere.

The author (and his hat) at Observation Point in Zion National Park last October.

Here we are eight months later, officially beginning a new hurricane season. Obviously, the season began in May with Alberto, which thankfully stayed away from Texas. All the same, I have mixed emotions going into this season. It feels too soon, memories are too raw, and I look at things differently after last year. I’m less meteorologically fascinated and more consumed by personal impacts to people. I think many meteorologists feel similarly. Yes, we stand at the ready to inform and help guide folks through the season ahead, but for most of us, it just feels too soon.

We know so many people in the Houston area, Texas in general, Florida, and Puerto Rico also think it’s much too soon for hurricane season to be upon us once again. But we have to accept that hurricane season is a part of life in these places. It’s a risk we have to live with. After the devastation and misery of last year, I reached out to a handful of folks to “take our temperature” as we head into a new season. We learned much from last year, and we need to apply those lessons in the 2018 season. Here are some thoughts on both the challenges ahead and the progress made.

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Slightest of storm chances still taunting Houston Sunday

The month of May will go into the books as the third hottest May on record back to 1889 in Houston. Our average temperature was 79.8 degrees, putting us in between 2010 and 2003.  The warmest May on record for Houston was 1996 when we had an average of 81.4 degrees. May 2018 also finished with 20 days of 90 degrees or hotter, a new record for number of 90 degree days for the month.

We have much more heat in store for the days ahead. But we do have a nagging storm chance this weekend, just low enough to be disappointing but just high enough to have to mention. The details…

Today & Saturday

Look for very similar conditions both today and tomorrow: Sun, clouds, and hot. There will probably be no showers in the area either day. Expect temperatures to hit the middle 90s again today and the mid to perhaps upper 90s tomorrow.

Sunday & Monday

I’m actually going to lump Sunday and Monday together today. There have been a couple minor changes to the forecast, mostly in terms of timing the rain chances. A weak boundary (call it a “front” if you’d like) will drop south from northeast Texas on Sunday. It sort of drags its feet as it approaches Houston, so that will allow rain chances to appear both Sunday and Monday. I wouldn’t get too excited, as the ingredients for storminess still look rather sub-par. But, nevertheless, we’ll hold on to some hope for some cooling rains. If we were assigning odds for who could see rain, those north of I-10 may stand the best chance on Sunday and Monday.

The GFS model shows just the slightest of rain chances on Sunday afternoon across southeast Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

Outside the rain chances, it will be partly to mostly sunny and continued hot. I expect mid to upper 90s Sunday and similar temperatures on Monday, but perhaps a degree or two cooler.

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Storms possible near Houston again on Sunday

Yesterday’s thunderstorm activity probably came as a bit of a surprise to many of us, not so much because they happened but because of how potent they were. We saw a few reports of hail and wind damage around the region. And some incredible sky pictures.

https://twitter.com/JCB_511/status/1000548824383881216

Our Friday forecast suggested the most activity would be east of US-59 on Saturday, and it was, but I’d be lying if I told you I was expecting the potency that it came with. So why did it happen?

A confluence of factors led to a busy Saturday evening. Storms early in the day in western Louisiana and eastern Texas likely produced some boundaries in the atmosphere, and with winds directing weather in the less common northeast to southwest direction, they ended up moving our way. We probably saw cold air aloft, necessary to help regenerate storms as they moved across southeast Texas. We had sea breeze interaction with some of those boundaries also. There was decent jet stream and upper level support in the northeast flow that helped add extra support. Then, it also hit 94° at IAH, so you had plenty of instability. All these factors came together just right, and we ended up exceeding most people’s expectations, including my own.

So that begs the question: Will we do it again today?

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