Matt Lanza

Many of our complaints about lack of sunshine were lodged and received. We’ve had a couple nice, albeit steamy afternoons this week, officially hitting 80 and 81 degrees on back to back days for the first time since November 17-18 of last autumn. For some that may be too much, too fast, but alas, here we are.

Today through Tonight

We’ll attempt to make another run toward 80 today, but added cloud cover and a few shower chances should limit how warm we can get. But, after a mild start this morning, we should still easily make the upper 70s this afternoon. There’s not much happening in the atmosphere to favor any significant showers today, but some lighter showers will be possible later as our next cold front approaches.

The front should make it to the northwest suburbs of Houston around 3-6 PM or so. Behind it, temperatures will ease back into the 60s and humidity should lower some. As the front moves through Houston, it will begin to grind to a halt. As of now, it looks like forward progress stops somewhere around Clear Lake to Dickinson. You can see this clearly while looking at an animation of dewpoints today.

So most of us will cool down into the mid or upper 50s tonight, but it will stay mild and humid southeast of the front, including Galveston east to Beaumont, where you probably won’t drop below 60-65 degrees. We’ll have low clouds and light showers behind the front and low clouds, drizzle, and fog probably ahead of it tonight. Fog may continue to linger in Galveston through the night.

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BREAKING: The clouds. Maybe. More on that below. If you’ve noticed that it’s been a lot drearier than normal this month, you have statistics available to back you up.

And yes, if you're wondering, it has been miserably dreary this month. It's been cloudy 83% of the time so far at 10 AM in Houston. Way above average right now. Via Iowa State IEM. pic.twitter.com/iWeUa3aEc5

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) February 7, 2018

This image is off of a cool site from Iowa State that has all sorts of climate and weather nuggets.I admittedly cherry picked an hour here, but other hours show some variation on this also. The link should show 3PM, which has had overcast skies reported every day this month so far. It’s been grey and dismal, and as much as I want to tell you we have a nice, lengthy stretch of good weather upcoming, we don’t.

Today & Friday

All that said, clouds have broken up some and we’ll have a half-decent day today. Satellite shows cloud cover mainly in the southeastern half of our area this morning.

Based on the movement of the clouds, I suspect we’ll actually have more clearing today than I initially expected. We’ll call it partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Expect highs to top off in the upper 50s or so. Clouds will gradually thicken back up tonight and onshore flow will resume, allowing temperatures to not fall as much. We won’t get below the upper 40s this evening and may even rise a degree or two toward morning.

Onshore flow will continue to increase on Friday, pumping back in moisture and solidifying clouds overhead. It looks as though we’ll see showers also increase throughout the day, especially south of I-10. Expect temps to slowly, steadily warm on Friday into the mid-60s.

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Welcome back to Houston winter. Today will be a rude awakening for anyone who enjoyed our 70s yesterday. Let’s jump in.

Today

First off, the cold front is through the entire area already this morning. Temperatures aren’t going very far today. We’ve sunk into the 40s, and we should stay there for the balance of the day, though we may go from mid-40s this morning to upper-40s this afternoon. Either way, have a coat available today.

Also, have an umbrella. Rain and and a few thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day. Coverage is sporadic this morning, and that should actually increase as the day goes on. I wouldn’t rule out some small hail in any thunderstorms today with cold temps in place. Rain totals will be variable, with some folks seeing as much as a half inch, while others may only see a tenth of an inch or two. It will also be a bit breezy today.

Tonight & Thursday

Rain should end this evening. Skies may clear out tonight in spots well north. But I think we’ll stay mostly cloudy in Houston. This will help us avoid a light freeze. Folks up near Conroe or Crockett may see temperatures get into the lower 30s, but that won’t happen in Houston. Expect lows in the city to bottom out in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees or so. Just a little wind around tonight will make it a bit colder.

On Thursday, we start the warm up process again, so expect clouds to stay mostly in place, though we hopefully see some sunny breaks. The better chance of sunshine tomorrow may be north of I-10. But overall, the day should be dry and quiet. Temperatures will make a respectable effort to get close to 60 degrees, but likely come up short.

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One question I’ve noticed from several folks in recent days has been some variant on “is it safe to tend to the garden yet?”

@mattlanza Can I start planning my veggie garden now? No real chance to freeze again, right? #NeedAnotherProjectLikeAHoleInMyHead

— Terri Schlather (@AGirlintheSouth) February 4, 2018

While we’ll probably avoid any sort of serious cold over the next 7-10 days, the advice I’ve been giving people is to give it at least another week or two. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast going into mid and late February, and I’m just not convinced we’re completely out of the woods here in the area. Frosts can cause issues; it doesn’t take 20 degree weather to be problematic. On average, Houston’s last sub-32 degree morning is around February 15th. We’ve done as late as April 10, 1973, and, more recently, as late as March 21, 1996. Yes, it can get cold well into March here. As much as we’d love to say yes, go ahead and get busy, it’s probably prudent to just sit tight a little longer if you can. This winter’s surprised us more than once. We’ll keep you posted.

On to the forecast.

Today through Wednesday

After a mild Sunday, we’ll start the week just a bit cooler behind yesterday’s cold front. Look for upper 50s under clouds or lower 60s with more frequent sunshine today. We’ll have more clouds than sun in general, and a few sprinkles or pockets of drizzle could develop this afternoon, especially south/east of US-59. Onshore flow will continue to ramp up tonight. That should mean more clouds, showers, sprinkles, and also some fog around heading into Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, we’ll have a warm air mass in place, along with increasing Gulf moisture. This should set the stage for scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms across the area. I don’t think everyone will see thunderstorms, but there is a chance for some stronger, hail-producing ones, primarily north of I-10 later Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

Expect temperatures on Tuesday to warm from around 60° in the morning to around 70° later. Tuesday night should see the best chance of storms shift a little further north of our area. A cold front will finally approach the area on Wednesday, cutting northwest to southeast Wednesday morning. We’ll start Wednesday probably in the mid 60s, but by midday or so, temperatures will likely drop back into and through the 50s. Plan to dress for two seasons on Wednesday. With the front, expect another round of showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the morning, and a continued chance of showers or some storms through the afternoon.

On average, expect a quarter to half inch of rainfall through Wednesday evening. Some areas may see a little more if showers and storms are persistent. As noted on the map above, some areas south of Houston could even see a bit less.

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