Matt Lanza

Flash flood watch Wednesday: What you need to know

Good evening all. We wanted to give you an evening update on the incoming rain event for Wednesday. Truthfully, not much has changed from Eric’s synopsis and outlook this morning. But we want to freshen up some thoughts around timing, amounts, severe weather, and so forth.

Quick Summary

  • Flash Flood Watch begins at 1 AM Wednesday north & west of Houston and 7 AM in Houston and points south & east.
  • Heavier rains stay north & west of Houston later tonight and Wednesday morning. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow afternoon, especially along and southeast of US-59/I-69. Widespread heavy rain and storms moves through with the front later Wednesday evening.
  • We still believe 1-3″ of rain on average will fall with a few pockets of 3-5″ or a little more not out of the question.
  • Street flooding is the primary form of flooding we are concerning ourselves with. Though bayous and creeks could rise, they should be able to handle tomorrow’s rains.

Flash Flood Watch

The National Weather Service has posted a Flash Flood Watch for almost the entire region (Edit to add: As of 8 PM, only Jackson & Matagorda Counties are excluded from the watch). The watch begins at 1 AM for areas north and west of Houston and at 7 AM for Houston and points south and east.

A large area of flash flood watches extends from just west of Houston all the way into the Mississippi Valley. (Pivotal Weather/NWS)

Timing

This is the one that I think might throw some folks for a loop. Much of Wednesday in Houston will actually be a lot like today. We do expect heavier rains in the morning northwest of the Houston metro area (up toward College Station, perhaps drifting as far south and east as Sealy through The Woodlands, which is why the flash flood watch begins at 1 AM there and not in Houston). But isolated showers and maybe a downpour with heavier rain well northwest should be the M.O. through early afternoon Wednesday.

We then have two parts to the stormy weather show. Part one is from early afternoon through early evening, when we’ll watch for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Not everyone will see rain, but if you do, it could be heavy. More on the severe weather threat below. Part two will be the main event tomorrow night. The cold front will be ushered slowly southeast from about 10 PM through 3-4 AM Thursday by a vigorous upper level disturbance. Look for the majority of tomorrow’s rain to fall from early evening into the early overnight.

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Quiet weekend, but Houston humidity returning

After a string of splendid weather, we’re heading back into the muggy warmth of mid-spring in Houston. We’ll cap it with some rain chances next week. Maybe we can finally wash away some of the pollen that has been driving some of us crazy. (raises hand) Let’s dive in.

Today through Sunday

The quick and dirty here is that if you have outdoor plans this weekend, you should be in good shape. There could be a few showers around, but for the most part, I feel fairly comfortable telling you that the weather will be quiet this weekend.

We have a few patchy low clouds around this morning that should dissipate. Expect new clouds to billow up at times today, but on the whole it looks fairly nice. Expect a little more humidity and high temperatures approaching 80 degrees.

I think Saturday and Sunday may play out similarly with nighttime through morning low clouds or a few sprinkles giving way to partial afternoon sunshine, fairly typical for Texas springtime. Again, there’s a very, very slight chance for a shower. But as Eric mentioned yesterday, a pretty firm capping inversion probably keeps us dry the vast majority of the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday should see highs in the low 80s and morning lows struggling to get below the upper 60s.

With stronger onshore winds early this weekend and next week, use caution if you’ll be at the beach, as rip current risk will be higher than usual. (NWS Houston).

Headed to the beach? Be aware that as onshore winds increase today and this weekend, so will the risk of rip currents. If you do decide to take a dip in the Gulf, please do so cautiously.

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Weekend should not be ruined despite rain chances

As we head into the weekend, rain chances will be with us most of the time. Truthfully, while we can’t tell you exactly when and where it’s going to rain, the weekend should be peppered with plenty of dry periods. More on that in a second.

But we actually could use a bit of rain. We finished about two to three inches above normal in February, but the combination of a small deficit in January and over an inch deficit so far in March means we’re close to average for this point in the year. When you consider the autumn rainfall deficit we had, we’re certainly not in bad shape but it could be better.

While Houston isn’t in drought, much of West Texas is, with the worst in the Panhandle. (Drought Monitor)

The Drought Monitor update from yesterday shows that about 54% of Texas is in drought now, with almost 15% (all in the Panhandle region) in extreme drought. In the Houston area, we’re technically drought-free, but you don’t have to go too far west to hit moderate drought. With rainfall over the next 10 days probably averaging at or below normal, we should see moderate drought slowly begin to creep back in on the outskirts of our area by the end of March. We’ll see how it goes, but a little rain would not be a bad thing right now.

On to the forecast.

Today

Cloud cover is in firm control this morning, and it will stay mainly cloudy through the day today. Rain chances will be with us basically all day, but there’s a big caveat here: It’s probably not going to be too bad in Houston. We’ll have some light rain showers or drizzle around this morning. We’ll have a few more showers or a rogue thunderstorm nearby this afternoon. But the best odds for some steadier rainfall will be east of Houston. So the way I’m characterizing today is a few showers or some pockets of light rain, but no need to cancel plans or anything. Temperatures will ramp up to around or above 80 degrees this afternoon.

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From super nice to sorta nice

After a string of three cool but beautiful days to start this week, we’re going to turn the corner today, back to slightly less nice weather, leading to some rain chances for Friday and the weekend.

Today

Look for a mostly nice start to Thursday. Just a few high clouds passing through this morning, though some newly developed low clouds are showing up near and east of US-59. But satellite imagery shows that the mainly clear weather elsewhere is running out of time.

The nighttime view on satellite shows much more cloud cover working closer to Houston. (College of DuPage)

Expect temperatures this afternoon to reach for the mid-70s in Houston, with gradually increasing clouds. I can’t rule out a little light rain or drizzle well southwest of Houston by mid to late afternoon. This would be most likely near Bay City, El Campo, Matagorda, or Wharton.

Tonight and Friday

Expect clouds to thicken up tonight across the entire region. We’ll see at least a few showers, sprinkles, or drizzle try and move into the area. Temperatures will be nowhere near as cool as in recent nights. We’ll struggle to get below 65 degrees or so in the city, milder southeast and cooler northwest.

On Friday, look for clouds and pockets of drizzle or showers in the morning. We’ll shift to a mostly cloudy afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should begin to pop up however. That said, the best chance for those will be east of I-45, mostly between Houston and Lake Charles. West of Houston, expect a few isolated showers or downpours Friday afternoon. High temperatures should sneak into the upper 70s and low 80s, even with a good deal of cloud cover.

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