Matt Lanza

Thursday ended up being a beautiful day. It’s almost like we turned a page after February. With all the data from last month in, we can crunch some numbers now and tell you just how cloudy February ended up. Iowa State University’s Iowa Environmental Mesonet has a useful tool that takes every hourly observation and tells you what percentage had overcast conditions reported. Keep in mind that how hourly observations are taken has changed a bit over time, so there are likely inconsistencies from 1970s data to 2018 data. But since at least 1973, no February has been cloudier in Houston. Of all hourly observations last month, 81% had cloud cover reported.

The next closest February was 1989, when 65% of the month had cloud cover. What’s more interesting? February 2016 was the least cloudy February since at least 1973. So, of the last three Februaries, we’ve had both extremes recorded. Impressive.

You can enlarge either image above by clicking on it. So, that was February. The responses I’ve seen from people have been impressively divided and partisan. Some of you absolutely loved that kind of February. Others were really struggling without sunshine. I fall about 80% of the way into the latter camp, but take what we can get before summer sets in, right?

Either way, we’ve turned the corner. Let’s run down the forecast.

Today & Saturday

We have the antithesis of February’s weather today. Expect ample sunshine and low humidity. We’ll generally top off in the lower or middle 70s this afternoon after a refreshing morning. “Perfect weather” is a very subjective definition, but I have to think today will come close to checking most of the boxes. Overnight lows tonight into Saturday morning could even be a couple degrees cooler than today. Expect some scattered 40s north and lower or middle 50s elsewhere (though milder at the beach).

Saturday looks fine for now. We’ll begin to notice clouds creeping in through the day as onshore flow kicks back in. If you live from about Sugar Land south and west, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few showers or sprinkles pop up in the afternoon tomorrow. But I don’t think it would be anything too problematic. High temperatures Saturday will reach for the lower 70s once again. Most Saturday outdoor plans should be fine.

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Statistically, I don’t know whether or not February has been Houston’s cloudiest month on record, but I think we all know it has to be close. Yes, we’ve had sunny periods at times, but they’ve been short-lived and fleeting. I’m not sure what the exact number is (we’ll probably tally it for you at the end of the month), but roughly 70% of the month appears to have had some level of overcast cloud cover. February averages somewhere around 45% cloud cover in Houston. Sunny weather will return eventually. That much we promise.

Today

Low clouds and fog are pretty prevalent this morning as this pesky front we’ve been dealing with begins to try and advance back north. Temperatures are all over the place, but it’s pretty easy to see the front.

The front has made it back to almost US-59. It’s in the 70s in southeast Houston, but 50s on the west and north sides. As the front pushes back north and west today, expect warmer, more humid air to win out just about everywhere. Low clouds and fog should gradually lift, but it may be a process in spots, meaning clouds and drizzle could mar a good chunk of the day. Folks well north and west of Houston may have the most trouble getting warm and clearing at all today.

Disturbances will continue to push through, but the heavy rain should stay oriented well to our north, where 1-3″ will be possible north of Waco and across the DFW Metroplex. Temps will top off in the mid or upper 70s southeast of Houston, perhaps near 80 with some sunny breaks. Northwest will probably see low-70s or so on average (warmer closer to Houston, cooler further away).

Weekend

Saturday will likely behave somewhat similar to Friday afternoon with an isolated shower, but mostly just AM clouds or fog, some sunny breaks, and humidity. Folks way north of Houston, such as up toward Huntsville, could see a little steadier rain Saturday morning. Again though, the bulk of the rain will stay well north.

With any sunshine, we’ll easily scoot above 80 Saturday, but otherwise it’ll be upper 70s. The front comes back at us tomorrow evening as a cold front. The good news is that while we should see some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Saturday evening, it shouldn’t be anything too serious. Right now, I’d be on the lookout for that between 4 and 8 PM, maybe a little a later southeast. And any heavier rain you see will probably be brief.

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Many of our complaints about lack of sunshine were lodged and received. We’ve had a couple nice, albeit steamy afternoons this week, officially hitting 80 and 81 degrees on back to back days for the first time since November 17-18 of last autumn. For some that may be too much, too fast, but alas, here we are.

Today through Tonight

We’ll attempt to make another run toward 80 today, but added cloud cover and a few shower chances should limit how warm we can get. But, after a mild start this morning, we should still easily make the upper 70s this afternoon. There’s not much happening in the atmosphere to favor any significant showers today, but some lighter showers will be possible later as our next cold front approaches.

The front should make it to the northwest suburbs of Houston around 3-6 PM or so. Behind it, temperatures will ease back into the 60s and humidity should lower some. As the front moves through Houston, it will begin to grind to a halt. As of now, it looks like forward progress stops somewhere around Clear Lake to Dickinson. You can see this clearly while looking at an animation of dewpoints today.

So most of us will cool down into the mid or upper 50s tonight, but it will stay mild and humid southeast of the front, including Galveston east to Beaumont, where you probably won’t drop below 60-65 degrees. We’ll have low clouds and light showers behind the front and low clouds, drizzle, and fog probably ahead of it tonight. Fog may continue to linger in Galveston through the night.

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BREAKING: The clouds. Maybe. More on that below. If you’ve noticed that it’s been a lot drearier than normal this month, you have statistics available to back you up.

And yes, if you're wondering, it has been miserably dreary this month. It's been cloudy 83% of the time so far at 10 AM in Houston. Way above average right now. Via Iowa State IEM. pic.twitter.com/iWeUa3aEc5

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) February 7, 2018

This image is off of a cool site from Iowa State that has all sorts of climate and weather nuggets.I admittedly cherry picked an hour here, but other hours show some variation on this also. The link should show 3PM, which has had overcast skies reported every day this month so far. It’s been grey and dismal, and as much as I want to tell you we have a nice, lengthy stretch of good weather upcoming, we don’t.

Today & Friday

All that said, clouds have broken up some and we’ll have a half-decent day today. Satellite shows cloud cover mainly in the southeastern half of our area this morning.

Based on the movement of the clouds, I suspect we’ll actually have more clearing today than I initially expected. We’ll call it partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Expect highs to top off in the upper 50s or so. Clouds will gradually thicken back up tonight and onshore flow will resume, allowing temperatures to not fall as much. We won’t get below the upper 40s this evening and may even rise a degree or two toward morning.

Onshore flow will continue to increase on Friday, pumping back in moisture and solidifying clouds overhead. It looks as though we’ll see showers also increase throughout the day, especially south of I-10. Expect temps to slowly, steadily warm on Friday into the mid-60s.

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