Matt Lanza

Harvey inching closer to Houston

Quick note to lead: A Tornado Watch is posted for the entire area through 1 AM. We’ve just had numerous reports of confirmed tornadoes in northwest Harris County. We’ve had multiple other confirmed tornadoes since last night. While our focus remains on flooding, this tornado threat is a serious concern also. Make sure you have a weather radio or have the emergency notifications setting switched to “on” on your mobile device to get warnings for your location through tonight, as periodic tornadoes will be possible throughout the region.

Tropical Storm Harvey continues to explore Victoria and the Golden Crescent of Texas this evening. The center as of 5 PM was near Cuero in DeWitt County. Over the last several hours, Harvey has assumed a bit of an eastward drift. This has been fairly well captured on most weather models, and it’s why I think the most critical part of this storm’s legacy in Houston will play out over the next 18-24 hours. Let me explain.

Since about Wednesday or Thursday, it appeared that Harvey’s closest approach to Houston as a moderate tropical storm would be late tonight into Sunday before it drifted back west and south and further weakened. Though it would continue flinging periods of heavy rain our way, the core would be mostly out of the picture after tomorrow. Some of our shorter-term and highest resolution weather models are suggesting that Harvey’s center drifts a little closer to Houston tonight, bringing some of that core to the western part of the city, while continued onshore flow of moisture helps new rain and storms to form.

This would mean a major uptick in rainfall across much of the Houston area tonight. We’ve been fortunate so far for the most part. Bayous have filled, streets have flooded, but much of it has been manageable by our fairly rigorous rainfall standards here in Houston.

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Saturday AM Harvey transitioning from hurricane to long rainstorm

Harvey has arrived in Houston.

Numerous flash flood warnings are posted right now across the Greater Houston area, as an eastern flank feeder band of the storm flows ashore.

Harvey slowly meandering between Victoria and Goliad, shipping intense rains into Houston. (College of DuPage)

 

These heavy rains are likely to continue throughout the day today. There may be lulls at times, but the dominant weather we see in Houston today is heavy rainfall, leading to street and possibly bayou flooding.

Rain totals have begun to add up. Generally 1-3″ north and east and 3-6″+ south and west since yesterday.

Rain totals through 6:45 AM Saturday are beginning to add up. (Harris County Flood Control)

 

As the day progresses, rain totals will balloon further. Some models show really impressive rain totals in the Houston area today. I would expect an average of 4-8″ today across the region, with higher amounts possible, especially on the south and west sides and perhaps a few spots east of the city with lesser amounts.

Bottom line in all this, you need to be prepared for significant travel inconvenience and disruption today. And if you can stay put, please do so.

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Category four Harvey slowly approaches landfall near Rockport

As of 7:45 PM Friday, Hurricane Harvey has been officially upgraded by the National Hurricane Center to a category four storm with 130 mph maximum sustained winds. Port Aransas just gusted to 105 mph as the eyewall approaches. Should Harvey make landfall at its current intensity, it will be the strongest storm (by wind) to hit Texas since 1961’s Hurricane Carla (which came ashore just north of where Harvey should) and the strongest in the U.S. (by wind) since Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.

Haunting: Harvey strengthens to a Category 4 hurricane as it approaches landfall near Port Aransas and Rockport. (NOAA)

 

Coastal Texas from near Corpus Christi north to Matagorda are being absolutely pummeled by wind and squalls  and they will continue to deal with this in the hours ahead. Few words needed to describe the situation there, and our thoughts are with folks that live in that region.

Here in the Houston area, things are also active. We’ve had numerous tornado warnings issued throughout the day today, mainly south of US-59 and I-10. As these squalls and feeder bands on the north side of Harvey come ashore, they are capable of producing brief tornadoes, mainly in the coastal counties. These are extremely difficult to warn on because they spin up so quickly, and the NWS Houston office has done an outstanding job thus far with them. If you are placed under a tornado warning tonight, do take it seriously and seek shelter at your location (lowest level of the building in an interior room). Have a way to receive warnings overnight. A tornado watch remains posted until at least 2 AM for the Houston area, along and south of US-59 to I-10.

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Houston’s hot, but all eyes on Monday’s eclipse forecast

Lots to get to today, including Monday’s eclipse and the tropics. But first, we have some breaking news: August in Houston is brutal. It continues in 2017 like almost every other August. Our last 5 days have seen high temperatures of 97°, 96°, 97°, 96°, and 97°. By that metric, today should see a high temperature of 96°, right? Potentially. These temperatures, while blistering hot, aren’t a whole lot hotter than normal. But when combined with the humidity, it’s felt pretty terrible. This will mostly continue.

Today & Weekend

Lather, rinse, repeat. This forecast should be pretty straightforward. Expect sunshine and hot, humid weather. High temperatures will top off in the mid or upper 90s. We’re running just a little cooler this morning than we have seen lately, so perhaps we can avoid more Heat Advisories today or tomorrow. Regardless of whether we do or not, take it easy outdoors. An isolated downpour is entirely possible on any given afternoon in one or two spots. The best chance for this would probably be on Sunday.

Monday & Eclipse

The more I watch Monday’s forecast the more I get a little uneasy. Now, I still think the vast majority of the region will have a fine opportunity to view our partial eclipse. But I’m watching a tropical wave and upper level low moving across the Gulf early next week. The timing of the arrival of the leading edge of this disturbance is Monday afternoon. Models insist the best available moisture for the most clouds will remain out over the Gulf to our east. That’s encouraging. So for now, we’re going to continue to spin the forecast optimistically. Yes, a chance of a downpour or thunderstorm will exist in the area, especially south and east of Houston by eclipse time. But I suspect we aren’t going to see too many serious clouds. So, I feel optimistic, but we’ll be watching the evolution of this forecast closely through the weekend.

(Space City Weather)

 

Elsewhere across East Texas, other than passing cumulus clouds, it looks pretty good. For those of you traveling to another state, here’s an update:

Green and purple on this map indicates the best chance for clouds and/or showers during the eclipse. (Weather Bell)

 

Washington, Oregon, and Idaho may see some low clouds or haze issues in spots, but Wyoming and western Nebraska look good. Eastern Nebraska into northwest Missouri has the best shot at cloud cover it appears. Conditions should improve near the peak eclipse spots of southern Illinois and Kentucky. A few showers may be possible in the Southeast, but I suspect they’ll be hit or miss.

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