Matt Lanza

Summer set to sink in

Eric’s post from yesterday covered most of what’s about to unfold over Houston for the next week or so (and, really, the next couple months for that matter). Summer is here for real. So just some details here.

Friday Through Tuesday

No big changes to speak of here. We should see a few showers in the area today, but almost certainly nothing like we’ve seen the last several days.

Forecast radar today shows a scattered bit of mostly minor showers through the day. (Weather Bell)

 

It should be more like a smattering of small afternoon downpours in spots than the numerous scattered thunderstorms like we’ve been dealing with. The rain chance drops off a cliff Saturday though. Basically, Saturday through Tuesday look to be about the same: Partly to mostly sunny, hot, humid. I wouldn’t completely rule out a downpour on any of those days (particularly Monday or Tuesday), but the chances are so small, it really isn’t even worth discussing right now.

The rinse and repeat pattern Eric mentioned yesterday also applies for forecast temperatures. Houston should top off around 93-95° each afternoon, with morning lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. If you’re heading to Galveston, a similar story of consistency, with roughly 89-91° each day and lows a bit warmer thanks to the warm Gulf, coming in around 80° each morning.

Beyond Wednesday

Agree with Eric yesterday: Not much change is in store. The pattern looks pretty stable over Texas at least. Expect pretty persistent temperatures. Rain chances may go from like 10% early next week to 20% each afternoon later next week, but I don’t see things getting much worse than that even out toward next weekend at this point. We’re in a quiet period now.

The tropics look quiet in the Gulf and Caribbean as well.

The tropics are quiet in our backyard for the foreseeable future, as the Gulf and Caribbean are void of much moisture and disturbances. (NOAA)

No real signs of anything worth discussing over the next 7-10 days or longer. The eastern Atlantic has seen some aggressive tropical waves early this season, but at this point it’s still a bit early for anything to get moving. If we continue to see these sorts of waves in a month, it will be something to monitor. But for now, breathe easy and enjoy a hot (but quiet) Fourth of July weekend!

Posted at 6:30 AM by Matt

Unsettled summer weather settling back in

With Cindy in the rear-view mirror, we’re tracking back to a more standard but unsettled summer weather pattern. No serious trouble is expected the next few days, but if you’ll be outdoors this weekend, you’ll want to have a rain plan. Let’s break it down.

Today

The main story today is going to be unpleasant temperatures. Highs should reach the lower or middle 90s in Houston and the upper-80s at the coast. But in the wake of Cindy, humidity is going to be oppressive. Dewpoints at Galveston may hover around 78-80° most of tomorrow. When you factor that humidity in with temperatures, it will feel gross. Heat index values will be quite high today, so you’ll want to take it easy outdoors.

Model forecast of heat index at 4 PM says it will feel like around 105° in most areas, Hotter west. Limited relief at the coast. (Weather Bell)

 

The National Weather Service has heat advisories posted today for Wharton, Colorado, Austin, Grimes, and Brazos Counties, as well as the cities of Austin, Dallas, Waco, and San Antonio.

In terms of rainfall, today should carry the lowest risk of the next several. If I were placing odds, I’d give it about a 10% chance of a rogue downpour, mainly this morning and mainly southeast of the city.

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Hot, quiet weekend ahead, but forecast headaches loom

Hot, hot, hot! Thursday was the hottest day of the year so far in Houston. We hit 95°, which is right about average for our first 95° day of the year. Typically, our first 95° day occurs about June 13th (based on records back to the 1880s). Fun fact: In 1899, we didn’t hit 95° for the first time until August 8th! If only…

Today & Weekend

With our first 95° in the books, we’ll try and tack on at least one more this weekend. High pressure should dominate the next two to three days, keeping us mostly dry and hot. I suppose we can’t entirely rule out a stray downpour Friday, Saturday, or Sunday, but for the most part, the only detriment this weekend will be the heat. If you’re outside, make sure you stay hydrated, wear sunscreen and find some shade when possible. It’s very basic, common sense stuff, but it’s always worth a reminder.

NWS forecast highs are once again close to the middle 90s today. (Weather Bell)

 

All three days should see low to mid-90s for highs. Nighttimes will be sultry, with upper 70s in Houston and about 80 degrees along the Southeast Texas coast. Galveston will offer limited relief at night this weekend.

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Unsettled weekend for Houston, but not a washout

Houston officially only hit 84° yesterday, several degrees shy of our average of 90° this time of year. Clouds and showers certainly helped. What does our weekend have in store?

Friday & Saturday

It’s very difficult to have a day in summer in Southeast Texas where you don’t have a chance of showers or hit and miss thunderstorms. That means we have to find ways to express which days have better chances than others. If yesterday was a five out of ten, today and tomorrow should be about a three or four out of ten. One of the key reasons is precipitable water (PWAT), a basic gauge of how much moisture is available in the atmosphere. Our PWAT value yesterday morning was around 1.8″ (or higher). Both today and tomorrow it should be more like 1.6-1.7″.

PWAT values yesterday vs. today show a fairly substantial drop. That won’t eliminate storms, but it should mean just a few less than were around yesterday. (NOAA)

 

This means we’ll almost certainly have scattered downpours around, but by no means should either day be a total washout. Have an umbrella handy and just be ready to scoot to shelter if you’ve got outdoor plans. Lightning will definitely be possible in the storms, as it almost always is during summer. Storms may also have heavy rain. There was some very localized street flooding in the Sugar Land area yesterday, and it’s conceivable that a handful of places may see a similar situation today or tomorrow.

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