Sunday, 7:50am CT— Labor Day weekend rolls on and so does our mostly quiet weather. Given what’s needed for relief and recovery efforts across the region, this about as good a forecast as you could hope for in early September.
Today and Labor Day
Expect similar weather both today and tomorrow to what we’ve been seeing the last couple days. It should be mainly sunny, hot, and humid both days. High temperatures will top off in the lower 90s in much of the area. Morning lows will be in the low-to-mid-70s. We did have one or two very isolated showers around the area yesterday, and I suppose we could do the same today and tomorrow. But for the most part, the odds strongly favor you not seeing rain through Monday. Also, air quality will remain stagnant, so you’ll continue to notice haze in the area.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Gulf moisture begins to increase on Tuesday, ahead of our midweek cold front. As this happens, we should note a few more showers and storms in the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Again, this won’t be serious stuff, and there’s a better chance that most of you won’t see rain.
Total rainfall through Wednesday morning’s frontal passage should average a quarter of an inch or less. (NWS/Weather Bell)
In fact, total rainfall through Wednesday morning should be about a quarter inch or less on average.
The front passes through the area from north to south Wednesday morning or afternoon, ending the rain threat and dropping dewpoints (humidity) from the 60s and low 70s into the comfortable 50s!
Tuesday, 2:05pm CT— Good afternoon. Another dreary day across much of the region as Harvey (finally!) begins to slowly pick up some speed and pull away. Thankfully the Houston area has seen minimal additional rains today, with most places across the hardest hit spots earlier in the week at or below one inch of new rain. Today’s hardest hit location is clearly Galveston.
Now and Tonight
Harvey is a shell of what it once was, but it’s trying to take up a new lease on life as it leaves our area.
Harvey trying to reorganize a bit as it begins to exit the region. (GR Level 3)
Harvey has been hammering Galveston all morning with heavy rain over 7″ total today, along with strong winds. Gusts over 50 mph have occurred at times on the island. This will continue as Harvey pulls away, but with a slight downward trend eventually.
Rains have really cut back around Houston, which is great news for us. Our neighbors to the east are unfortunately now in a serious predicament with extremely heavy rain pointed at the Beaumont and Port Arthur area. These areas have been similarly battered by rainfall since the weekend. Heavy rains will lash that area through this evening, worsening a bad situation. Some additional rains may redevelop tonight over Houston, but around the city, rain totals today will be the lowest they’ve been since at least Saturday.
Tomorrow and Beyond
Harvey is on its way, and it will make landfall late tonight or tomorrow morning likely in Cameron Parish, LA or near Port Arthur. We should see rain risk trend downward tomorrow with just a few showers, mostly in the morning and amounts should be mainly inconsequential as it relates to flooding. Skies may not clear out completely, but many of you will see sunshine tomorrow I project. We will stay dry into the weekend before at least some rain chances (hopefully mostly scattered stuff and nothing too organized) returns to the picture after Labor Day. We’ll have more on that once we dust ourselves off after Harvey’s exit.
Tuesday, 6:20am CT— Good morning to all. Day four of Harvey in Houston is well underway. The end of the rain part of the storm is closer yet. For those curious about specifically how much rain has fallen, the National Weather Service did compile a brief list. Mutliple locations are over 40″ of rain total, especially southeast of Houston. Other locations have ranged from a lot to an awful lot.
After a night of more rain, things have calmed down a bit in many areas this morning. Most rainfall rates are under 0.50″ this morning, except perhaps in the northeast corner of Harris County, and parts of Liberty, Chambers, and coastal Galveston Counties.
Radar as of 6 AM shows continued light rain in much of the area, with some more moderate rains east of I-45 and near the coast. (GR Level 3)
Any breaks are welcome of course, but we still have a little bit of a ways to go in this storm.
Today
Models seem to be struggling a bit handling the current situation, either overdoing it or underdoing it, so there’s a degree of uncertainty in the forecast today. If we look at a satellite loop this morning, the brightest clouds on this loop (essentially indicating the most moisture for thunderstorms) are clearly east of the area.
Harvey’s most intense weather should stay to our east, but I don’t believe we’re done with occasional moderate to heavy rains yet. (College of DuPage preliminary, non-operational GOES-16 data)
If you look offshore, there remains a little cluster of heavier storms on the north side of the center of Harvey (still a 45 mph tropical storm). Harvey’s eastward drift should become a northeasterly one later today. As this happens, it will probably fling back another wave or two of rainfall into the region, similar to yesterday or somewhat similar to last night. The heaviest rains will be east of I-45, while lighter rains will continue west of I-45. We should add up to a couple more inches at most west and perhaps 2-4″ (perhaps a few higher amounts in spots) or so east through the day today.
Tonight and Wednesday
As we go into the final phase of Harvey, and it begins to pull away tonight and Wednesday, we should see periods of rain once again, lightest west, heaviest east. Those should add up to another 0.50-1.50″ west of US-59 tonight through Wednesday evening and another 1.50-4″ east of US-59 and north of I-10. Some places will see less, others more, but this is about the average of what we should see.
Harvey’s turn north begins today and begins to accelerate tomorrow. (National Hurricane Center)
The forecast for Wednesday night would have steady rain ending east of Houston, and Thursday should see just a few scattered showers. Friday and Saturday continue to look dry.
We’ll have more the forecast and flooding later this morning. Stay safe all.
Monday, 9:55pm CT— Our torment continues, as rain, albeit far less intense than what we’ve experienced at times since the weekend, continues in another soggy night around Houston.
Now
There’s no good news here, but if we want to try and spin things positively tonight, we can say something at least. Areas west of Houston, where rains flow into the already full Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are seeing relatively lighter rains compared to the rest of the region. The rate of rainfall is averaging about 0.50″ to 1.50″. Of course, areas east do not need the rainfall either. For every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction unfortunately. Again, areas already in flood continue in flood, and the combination of rain and wind prevents much rapid drainage to improve conditions elsewhere.
Harvey continues dumping steady rain over the Houston area. (GR Level 3)
Rest of Tonight
Unfortunately we don’t see this rain ending tonight. In fact, the situation may be rather steady state much of the night. Rain will fall at varying levels of intensity. The heaviest will be south of I-10 and east of I-45. Rates will remain in this 0.50″ to 1.50″ per hour rain most of the time, but every so often it could ramp up to 2″ per hour or ease back to 0.25″ per hour. Winds will continue to gust at times to 25 to 35 mph, perhaps down a little from earlier today, but still enough to produce occasional, scattered power outages. CenterPoint is reporting about 96.02% of customers with power tonight, which isn’t substantially changed from earlier today.
Tuesday
We’re almost to the end of this terrible movie, but we have one more day to get through. Analyzing data this evening, it appears steady moderate rains will continue much of Tuesday. Similar to tonight, it could be heavy at times, lighter at others. The trend will be toward slightly more sporadic rains and hopefully slightly lighter ones too. I suspect that trend will continue into tomorrow night.
Wednesday and Thursday
Harvey finally exits to our north on Wednesday. Rain should taper to showers from south to north and end through the day. Yes, the rain will end. Finally. By Thursday, there may still be enough instability around for scattered showers or storms, but they’ll be very hit or miss (many of us dry, others see a shower or two). And I think we’ll see some sunshine here.
We’ll keep you posted through to the end of Harvey and beyond. Be safe all.
