Matt Lanza

Rinse, repeat cycle in Southeast Texas

We are firmly in what I like to call a rinse and repeat cycle here in Houston. Showers and storms have been resilient much of this week, and with that in mind, I’d expect we see another round of storms today.

While not unprecedented, our current “cool” streak continues to lengthen. Yesterday marked five straight days below 90°, which hasn’t happened within August since 2001. If we manage to avoid 90° again today, it will be the first time in 20 years that we’ve accomplished six in a row in August.

Today

Radar is quiet this morning, with just a couple showers at the coast, perhaps even fewer than yesterday. Similar to Thursday though, with the sea breeze spreading inland from late morning into early afternoon, showers and storms should fire up over a good chunk of the area. We may see locally heavy rain as this happens. Also like yesterday, we could see locally high water on some area streets, especially those typically prone to flooding. It shouldn’t take a lot of rain to accomplish this. Storms will keep moving though and it shouldn’t rain in any one place for too terribly long. All in all, similar to Thursday, but perhaps a bit less coverage/intensity than we saw yesterday.

Forecast radar from the HRRR today shows scattered afternoon showers & storms, though perhaps a bit less coverage than we saw Thursday. (Weather Bell)
Forecast radar from the HRRR today shows scattered afternoon showers & storms, though perhaps a bit less coverage than we saw Thursday. (Weather Bell)

Temperatures today will be contingent on how quickly the rain arrives. We still managed 88° yesterday despite a good deal of cloud cover in the morning, but with rain arriving  just after Noon, temperatures were cut down. So upper 80s to around 90° is reasonable for today. If rain arrives a little later, we could break our 90-free streak today.

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Rain risk not quite done for Houston

With rain and storms daily, Houston has held up pretty well, particularly considering the terrible situation in Louisiana. Yes, there have been minor bouts of flooding in parts of the area, but the rain has moved quickly enough and sporadically enough for us to escape major problems to this point. And for the first morning this week, we don’t have any Flash Flood Watches in the area to tell you about.

7 day rainfall totals show a widespread 3-5", areas of 5-8", and a max near Cypress of over 1 foot! (Harris County Flood Control)
7 day rainfall totals show a widespread 3-5″, areas of 5-8″, and maxes near Crosby of over 10″ and near Cypress of over 1 foot! (Harris County Flood Control)

We’re beginning to see this pattern finally erode a bit.

Today & Friday

The transition from this widespread daily thunderstorm pattern to something we’re more familiar with in summer in summer is underway: Morning coastal showers spreading inland with the sea breeze off the Gulf in the afternoon. You can see a radar forecast for today below:

HRRR model forecast radar for today shows storms spreading inland during the afternoon. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model forecast radar for today shows storms spreading inland during the afternoon. (Weather Bell)

Basically, I would expect gradually fewer showers today and tomorrow compared to how the earlier part of this week has gone. That said, we’re still probably looking at a slightly stormier than usual pattern for August, just not as busy as it has been for much of the week.

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Houston’s hundreds streak continues

Houston’s on a hot streak and not just at the Olympics! Our streak of 100° days was extended to five on Thursday. We were able to do 6 in a row last summer, and we will come close to matching that streak today. The hot weather in Texas has lead to record energy demand across the state:

While no serious weather records are being set with this heat, Texas still sets power records because of population & economic growth. While we should have another scorcher today, as Eric has been talking up this week, cooler temperatures and some good rain chances are coming back our way.

Today

One more day of just a slight chance of a shower or storm, along with continued hot temperatures. A Heat Advisory is once again posted for all of Greater Houston, meaning heat indices will flirt with 110°. Actual temperatures this afternoon will make one more run for 100°, and it will continue to feel very unpleasant. The best chance for showers today will be near the coast and well north and east of the city, but as we saw yesterday, with a quick 1-2″ just outside the West Loop, any isolated shower could produce some heavy rains.

Heat index forecast from HRRR model for 4 PM, shows 105-110° widespread, and even hotter possible in a few spots. (Weather Bell)

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Houston’s heat hurtles along

As Eric has been describing much of this week, August is most certainly a month in Houston you just survive, and perhaps you use the time to dream about how jealous our cohorts in the Northern U.S. will be come November through March (as a transplant, I most certainly can confirm they’re jealous).

Continued hot the next few days, with just a few storm chances, mainly at the coast. I don’t see a lot of variation in the weather through the weekend: High temperatures should be mid to upper 90s and low temperatures in the upper 70s, perhaps low 80s at the coast. Rain chances should be about 5-10% inland, maybe 10-20% at the coast each day. We have a few showers near the coast already this morning, so look for those to continue in spots, perhaps diminishing in coverage a little through the weekend. It looks like a mostly decent weekend for outdoor plans if you can take the heat and risk of a quick passing downpour.

Traveling? Well, it doesn’t look much cooler elsewhere.

The weekend travel forecast is only slightly hot.
The weekend travel forecast is only slightly hot.

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