Matt Lanza

Houston’s rain chances soon to slip away

After a mostly quiet weekend around Houston, we had some excitement Sunday. In the morning, we had a waterspout in Galveston that prompted a Tornado Warning. Then, we saw numerous showers and storms around the area in the afternoon.

Radar loop from 1 PM-5 PM Sunday shows pulse storms around Houston. (UCAR)
Radar loop from 1 PM-5 PM Sunday shows pulse storms around Houston. (UCAR)

Rain totals weren’t terribly impressive, but a couple spots saw up around an inch of rain.

Rain totals from Sunday across Harris County. (Harris County Flood Control)
Rain totals from Sunday across Harris County. (Harris County Flood Control)

Anyway, as we go into this week, we’ll start with rain chances similar to what we saw yesterday.


MONDAY & TUESDAY

With a good onshore flow and a surge of good moisture, it will be wise to keep rain chances in the forecast for Monday. Like yesterday, this won’t end up being a widespread soaker, but some of us will see some beneficial showers, downpours, and possibly thunderstorms both this morning and this afternoon. Outside of that, continued sticky and hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Forecast radar today shows a smattering of showers, but not everyone will see one. (Weather Bell)
Forecast radar today shows a smattering of showers, but not everyone will see one. (Weather Bell)

I think tomorrow will be a similar story, except we begin to see high pressure flex from the north. That means the best rain chances will be south of I-10. But again, a modest amount of shower/storm coverage should be expected. Again, highs should be in the low to mid 90s, with mid to upper 90s north of the Houston metro area.

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We need more synonyms for heat

Heat, hot, warmth, sizzling, scorching, stifling, stupid hot. We’ve run out of words to describe it. Any (PG rated) suggestions?

STATS

The weather forecast is pretty simple, so let’s start with a few stats. This July weather has been interesting. In people I’ve talked to, the daytimes don’t seem to feel much hotter than usual. The evenings aren’t especially awful either. It’s the mornings that seem to be the problem. Through yesterday, we’ve had nine 80° mornings in Houston in July (today will not be an 80° morning). This places us 3rd on record for any July and 6th on record for any month at all. Our daytime high temperatures have averaged 96.9° this month. Our nighttime lows have averaged 79.7° for the period.

If the month ended yesterday, Houston’s July would be tied for 4th hottest during the day and warmest ever at night (and not even close). Note: The chart below contains data through Wednesday; I’ve included Thursday in the totals above.

July's 10 hottest average high temperatures & low temperatures. (Midwest Regional Climate Center)
July’s 10 hottest average high temperatures & low temperatures. (Midwest Regional Climate Center)

So, yes, it’s been a hot July by any metric, even for Houston. But when you factor in the nights, July 2016 currently sits in a league of its own. Last week, Eric touched on some of the reasons why our nighttimes are getting warmer. I also think soil moisture (particularly below the topsoil), a legacy of our wet spring, as well as the warm Gulf are aiding our woes this month as well.

Soil moisture anomalies (left) and sea surface temperature anomalies (right) imply added warmth & moisture to keep our nights warmer than usual. (NOAA)
Soil moisture anomalies (left) and sea surface temperature anomalies (right) imply added warmth & moisture to keep our nights warmer than usual. (NOAA)

There also tends to be a global hangover after an El Nino of the magnitude we saw last winter, with lots of warmth lingering in the atmosphere, which may also explain a part the problem this year.

Anyway, with that, on to the forecast, with little to no good news unfortunately.

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The heat goes on for Houston

Houston’s scorching stretch of weather continues. This is certainly not unusual for early July, but the nighttime temperatures certainly have been in a league of minimal, elite company. Eric discussed this yesterday afternoon. In a touch of good news, the temperature dropped below 80° around 4 AM for the first time since last Saturday.

Assuming our low is indeed 79° this morning, the last 6 days of low temperatures averaged 81.2°, it would be the warmest 6 day stretch of nighttimes in Houston’s recorded history (going back to the late 1800s).

Houston's warmest 6 day stretch of minimum temperatures prior to this morning. (Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Houston’s warmest 6 day stretches of minimum temperatures prior to this morning. (Midwest Regional Climate Center)

Even if it’s “only” 78° this morning, it will tie 2011 at 81.0°. We’ll see later. It’s all statistics and knit picking at this point anyway: It has been uncomfortably hot, and more of the same is on the way.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Sunny, hot conditions will continue mostly unabated through the weekend. That being said, even yesterday we saw a handful of showers east of Houston in the late morning. As we go through the next few days, yes, there could be some showers around. Those will be extremely hit/miss, and you should probably consider yourself lucky if you end up under one. High temperatures will hit the mid 90s away from the coast without much trouble. Low temperatures will only bottom out around 80°, give or take a couple degrees, in most spots.

Traveling this weekend? Your travel forecast is below:

Travel forecast for the weekend of July 8-10.
Travel forecast for the weekend of July 8-10.

Again, just a note, the temperature at Big Bend is the range from high elevations (~90°) to lower elevations (~105°). All in all, it looks like a mostly trouble-free, hot weekend across most of Texas.

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Holiday weekend heat for Houston

Happy July! One month of summer is in the books, and as the calendar turns over, the heat will begin to crank up. Yesterday didn’t feel especially awful around Houston, as humidity was fairly low for this time of year. Dewpoints in the low 70s are tolerable. At least you don’t feel like you’re walking into a wall when you step outside. As we go through the holiday weekend, that will probably change.

TODAY & TOMORROW

I expect similar weather today and tomorrow to what we saw on Thursday. Rain chances look low both days, with a morning shower or storm possible near the coast and a couple hit or miss afternoon downpours possible inland. Rain chances never really go beyond 10% or so.

The biggest change will be overnight lows and humidity. While low temps have been generally in the low to mid 70s this week, we’ll see them transition to the mid or upper 70s by Saturday night/Sunday AM. With that, humidity will also increase. Dewpoints in the low 70s will transition to the mid 70s over the weekend, making the low to mid 90s each afternoon feel progressively more unpleasant.

Forecast high temperatures today look near typical for July: Hot. (Weather Bell)
Forecast high temperatures today look near typical for July: Hot. (Weather Bell)

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