This past winter was definitely a warm one that set records in many spots across the country, but some of the most amazing warmth has come close to home—in Galveston.
For Texas and Louisiana, Winter 2016-17 was the warmest on record (back 122 years), but it was also near the top of the list in most of the eastern and central US. (NOAA)
For Texas and Louisiana as a whole, this winter ranked as the warmest on record (back to 1895). In fact, for most of the eastern half of the country, this was a top 5-10 warmest winter as well. For Houston, it edged out 1949-50 to be the warmest on record. For Galveston however, this winter was not the warmest on record. By 0.3°, that distinction still belongs to Winter 1889-90 (worth noting there are no weather records for that winter in Houston). But although the winter as a whole wasn’t a record, Galveston has been doing something arguably even more impressive.
They’re going with 11 storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes for the 2017 season. Recall that last year saw 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and four major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes. Last year’s CSU April forecast called for 12/5/2 in that order. This year will be challenging with risks of another El Nino developing and some uncertainty as to what the ocean temperature profiles in the Atlantic Ocean will look like during the peak of the season. We’ve been in an active period of Atlantic hurricanes since 1995, and there are questions as to how much longer that will last. They will monitor these variables and update their forecast in early June.
Klotzbach’s team also helps put together landfall probabilities by county. You can examine the details yourself, but in the interest of ease, they give a 3.7% probability of one or more named storms making landfall in Galveston County, compared to a 4.3% chance historically in any given year. Texas as a whole has a 38.2% chance using their methodology, compared to a climatological average of 43.3% that a named storm will make landfall. In a nutshell: Slightly lower than normal odds for a landfall than in an average season.
Use hurricane outlooks with caution
There’s a BIG caveat here. Remember, seasonal hurricane outlooks are primarily an academic exercise. Operationally and for most of you, they don’t matter. If we have two storms in the Atlantic all season and one is category 4 that plows into Galveston, it was a below normal season but an awfully bad one for a lot of people. They’ve become a curiosity we need to share, and the group at Colorado State does really good and ultimately important research. But you should ignore this forecast and go ahead and think about preparing for hurricane season anyway.
After our wild Wednesday, we were treated to absolutely gorgeous weather yesterday in Southeast Texas. That will lead to another winner of a day today, albeit warmer. We continue to watch the weekend however, and the chance for both severe weather and heavy rainfall. Here’s the stormy breakdown.
Today
No weather trouble at all today. Expect ample sunshine, warm temperatures, and a breeze. We should make it into at least the middle 80s for high temperatures after a pleasant start this morning. Humidity will gradually work its way back ashore later today and tonight, but the majority of the day should feel pretty comfortable. That said, tree pollen (oak and cedar) remains high despite recent rain, and both grass pollen and mold spores are high also. So if you’re an allergy sufferer (raises hand), we still have a ways to go.
Quick cool thing I wanted to share. Here’s a satellite loop over South Texas this morning from the new GOES-16 satellite that was launched last November. This is experimental and non-operational data, as they’re still doing fine tuning, but check out how many lakes and different bodies of water you can detect on the satellite even at night.
Lakes and other bodies of water show up amazingly clear on a clear overnight in Texas. Experimental, non-operational data. (College of DuPage)
Amazing difference, and it’s like going from a clunky box of a TV to an HD set for meteorologists.
Saturday
The forecast gets a little trickier Saturday. Humidity will continue to flood ashore through the day. I expect we’ll see increasing clouds after a fairly sunny start. The last couple days it’s looked close for perhaps a few storms as early as late Saturday afternoon. Recent model data limits those chances until late evening. So while I think we’ll be dry during the day and early evening Saturday, if you’ll be heading up to the Shell Houston Open or to the Dynamo/Red Bulls match or Whatever Fest east of Downtown, just be aware later in the day in case it does get stormy.
(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by an anonymous donor)
Happy St. Patrick’s Day!So the Houston area survived yesterday’s handful of light showers without much trouble. The good news is that we’re on the way to having a weekend without having to worry much at all about any weather.
Today and Weekend
We’ll start with clouds again this morning and partially clear them out through the day. Overall, it should be nice, with temperatures warming into the upper 70s. Yes,a sprinkle or a brief shower could pop up, but it won’t be anything serious. It will be a bit breezy, especially south of Houston. Breaks in the clouds will try to thicken back up tonight. In addition, we could also be talking about a little patchy fog in spots. Saturday will be like Friday with low morning clouds giving way to sunny periods. It’s entirely possible that a brief shower or small storm pops up Saturday, but I’d bet heavily against seeing raindrops in most spots.
Models aren’t exactly bullish on rain chances Saturday, but we have to at least mention it. This particular image is a model interpretation of what could be happening around 3 PM Saturday. (Texas Tech)
Heading into Sunday, we’ll continue onshore flow, but I think any morning low clouds and fog will clear out a little more aggressively during the afternoon. Expect temperatures to hit around 80 or the low 80s on Saturday and low to maybe mid 80s on Sunday.
(Space City Weather is sponsored by an anonymous donor this month.)
