Good morning! Hopefully you had a splendid Thanksgiving and aren’t still stuffed after yesterday. I may be. But I have an appetite for a forecast, so let’s hop to it.
Today & Weekend
We are in a holding pattern right now between Wednesday’s front and the next system waiting for us next week. That means the weekend will see nice weather for the most part.
Today will be pleasant overall, but a bit gray at times. We may have a couple showers or sprinkles, around the area, but otherwise it will be a mix of clouds and some sun. High temperatures will hit the low 70s.
Forecast radar from HRRR model today shows mostly minor showers scattered about. (Weather Bell)
Today, we’re launching a new series: The Space City Rewind. In this series, relying on various resources and historic weather data, we’re going to discuss historic weather events that have occurred in the greater Houston area. Although there are many fine books and articles in print, there’s limited, definitive information online about Houston’s turbulent weather history. We aim to publish informative, detailed, and insightful pieces on such events. With many new readers and residents in the Houston area, it’s helpful to understand our history and the range of severe weather that can affect those living on the upper Texas coast. We’ll talk about the meteorology, impacts, and share some interesting stories and photos.
We begin with the November 21, 1992 Southeast Texas tornado outbreak.
Quick note: If you missed Eric’s post yesterday, we’re excited to be selling t-shirts so you can rep the site around Houston. We’re also accepting monthly sponsorships for 2017. Thank you to those who have pitched in. We’re so very grateful for your continued support and loyal readership!
Starting this morning, no serious issues in our area, but it is warm. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s to near 70 in spots, with mid 70s at the coast! But look north and west. The front is moving through the DFW Metroplex as of 6:30 AM.
Temperatures as of 6:30 AM show the front moving into the DFW Metroplex. (NOAA)
First off, a very happy Veterans Day to those who have served and defended our great nation. We owe you our deepest gratitude for your service and sacrifices. Thank you!
On to our weather. If you were looking for a nice, quiet autumnal weekend, I think you’re going to find one the next few days.
Today through Sunday
The biggest forecast challenge I see is cloud cover.
Water vapor satellite loop shows an upper low spinning over SW Texas and New Mexico and high clouds streaming over East Texas. (College of DuPage)
An upper low well to our west and ample jet stream energy off the Pacific are helping to keep a high deck of clouds in the forecast the next couple days. If you look at weather model data, this upper low is forecast to basically shear itself apart and open up before being ejected off to the east later this weekend.
Approximate location of upper level disturbance through Sunday night/Monday AM. (Weather Bell)
What does it mean for you? Expect intervals of clouds and sunny breaks today and tomorrow. We should probably see more of the same Sunday also, though we could see gradually decreasing clouds. Temperatures will vary based on clouds. If we see a lot of clouds, expect daytime highs in the upper 60s to around 70 and nighttime lows in the upper 50s. If we get a fair amount of breaks in the clouds, we’ll do low to mid 70s for highs and upper 40s to mid 50s for lows. Basically, it looks like a fair weather fall weekend here in Southeast Texas, with no serious rain risk.
