Matt Lanza

Yes, it is still going to rain

This storm has been maddening. You have to walk a very fine line between panicking people and providing actionable information. The balance is between the weather models (screaming 5-10″ of rain), the reality that big rain events aren’t that uncommon here, and the fact that people have a recent disaster (Memorial Day 2015) fresh in mind. It makes it difficult to communicate the information effectively. I know a lot of events and even some schools have been cancelled tonight and tomorrow. And it hasn’t rained much around Houston yet today, so people have to be very confused.

Here’s the scoop.

RECAP OF TODAY

The worst of this event was always supposed to be overnight tonight into tomorrow. Recall this morning, I said that most areas would see 0.5″ or less in all likelihood during the day today. Most have.

Rainfall through 4:30 PM Tuesday has been light for most. Blue specks near Beaumont indicate 1-2" though. (Radarscope)
Rainfall through 4:30 PM Tuesday has been light for most. Blue specks near Bay City, Beaumont & Orange indicate 1-2″ though. (Radarscope)

The good news today has been a very distinct lack of severe weather in Southeast Texas. We’ve managed to get through without any serious issues or warnings. The best parameters for severe weather will continue to exit to our east this evening and any tornado threat overnight will likely stay closer to the Golden Triangle than in Houston.

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Setting the table for today and tonight’s storms

Good morning. It’s going to be a busy day across Southeast Texas, especially as we get deeper into it. I’ll update the Facebook page this afternoon if conditions warrant, and look for another post here this evening, once we get just a little more clarity on how things tonight into Wednesday will unfold.

THIS MORNING & AFTERNOON

There should be no serious issues this morning. A few showers will be around, but severe weather should be absent from our area. A few stronger storms could get going east of I-45 by Midday however.

Houston will be in an interesting spot today. The atmosphere is capped at present (meaning there’s basically a “lid” on things that will suppress storms this morning). As the day goes on, that cap will dissipate, and we’ll be able to start generating thunderstorms. What does all this mean in English? It may take some coaxing to get storms going today. That said, once they do get going, it won’t take a lot for them to become strong or severe, so you’ll want to stay on guard today.

Severe weather risk today is highest from Houston to points south and west. (NOAA)
Severe weather risk today is highest from Houston to points south and west. (NOAA)

So bottom line: Scattered showers and hit/miss thunderstorms today. Rain totals should be manageable outside of the heaviest activity. Most folks should see 0.5″ or less during the daytime today, with isolated higher totals in any more stubborn storms (where up to 2″ or so will be possible).

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Enjoy the weekend, because next week looks stormy

Yesterday was a classic mid-spring like day in Houston. We hit 84 degrees, which makes it the warmest day of 2016 so far. We won’t be pushing that the next few days, but it will stay warm.All the details below, and scroll to the end for an important article you should be reading today.

TODAY

I won’t implicitly suggest today is a good day to play hooky, but it’ll be awfully nice. Expect plenty of sun, low humidity, and temperatures roughly 10 degrees cooler than Thursday (mid-70s). Another winner.

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Another stellar weekend

One thing we haven’t seen a shortage of in recent weeks are nice weekends. And we’ll be adding to that with this weekend.

TODAY

Expect plenty of sunshine again today. It will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, as a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air arrived late Thursday afternoon. Just nice.

Today's forecast high temperatures. (NOAA/NWS)
Today’s forecast high temperatures. (NOAA/NWS)

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