Matt Lanza

Back to regularly scheduled Houston summer

As we go into the weekend, the heat will begin to turn back up over Texas, as more standard summer returns. One interesting statistical nugget from the other day: Wednesday was the first time since June 12th that we had not hit 90 degrees in Houston, ending a 44 day streak that ranks tied for 15th longest 90+ streak all-time with 1902, 1958, and 1988. The longest recent streak of 90+ that we’ve seen occurred last year, 49 straight days from July 2 through August 19. The longest ever? 81 days in a row in 1890. I can’t even imagine…

Today

After another noisy afternoon yesterday, especially north of I-10, we’ll probably see some scattered storms around the region again today. That said, I don’t think storms will be as widespread as the last few days. Some heavy rain will be possible however again in a few spots, but those will be the exception, not the rule. We poked back into the 90s Thursday, and I suspect we’ll do it again today, probably closer to the mid 90s, typical for mid-summer.

Weather models imply we should at least see a few showers or storms by this afternoon. (Weather Bell)
Weather models imply we should at least see a few showers or storms by this afternoon. (Weather Bell)

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Hot Houston weekend

Yesterday was a bonafide scorcher for Houston, with another 98° day. Really, it was a scorcher almost everywhere in the Eastern and Central U.S. We’re squished under a heat dome here in Texas. Fortunately for us, the heat dome will begin to break down, or at least move around enough this weekend to open the Gulf back up a bit for some showers. It’s going to be hot, but hopefully some of us see a little relief at least.

WEEKEND

Rain chances will still be on the lower side today, with most activity likely south or east of Houston (most, but not exactly all). The majority of the area should stay dry and hot and humid, but rain chances aren’t quite zero. As we go into Saturday and Sunday, a surge of precipitable water, not too uncommon for this time of year, will come our way from the south and east.

The forecast for precipitable water lurches upward this weekend, increasing our chances for daytime storms. (Weather Bell)
The forecast for precipitable water lurches upward this weekend, increasing our chances for daytime storms. (Weather Bell)

This sets the stage for more “juice” available to fuel daytime storms. So I think coverage of thunderstorms on both weekend days will be more than we see today. Think about what happened on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday of this past week, and I think that’s a reasonable analog case to what we see this weekend: A scattering of storms that dumps on a few folks, but leaves others high and dry.

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Texas sizzles onward

We had a few showers again on Wednesday, but nothing too exciting by Southeast Texas standards. We may do it once again today, but heat will be the main story.

In case you missed it, Braniff Davis was back with another “Weather Whys” post last evening, discussing the sea breeze and the Gulf of Mexico and how they influence our weather. Check it out here.

TODAY AND FRIDAY

No big changes in the weather for the next couple days. I still expect it to be hot and humid both days, and I still anticipate we will see at least a couple showers blossom on radar each day. Exactly where they go and how widespread they’ll be is up for debate. A weak disturbance rotating around the Plains heat dome will probably set off more organized, but scattered storms in western Louisiana today. I doubt these make it to Houston, but if you live east of the city (particularly, if you live closer to Beaumont/Port Arthur), you may get a downpour later this afternoon. We may try and repeat this on Friday with another disturbance, perhaps getting a bit closer to Houston. High temperatures should again aim for the mid to upper 90s both days (hottest inland, cooler at the coast).

Forecast precipitation today shows the best concentration of storms in Louisiana, although some should cross into East Texas also. (Weather Bell)
Forecast precipitation today shows the best concentration of storms in Louisiana, although some should cross into East Texas also. (Weather Bell)

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Houston’s summer marches on

Houston’s weather has been a bit noisy this week. After another busy day Tuesday (a bit surprising to me admittedly), today should see the volume turn down a bit. Showers and storms moving through the region dumped 1-2″ on some folks, while others, again, saw nothing but some clouds. Again, welcome to Houston in summer.

Tuesday's rain totals; many places saw at least some rain, though not everyone. (Harris County Flood Control)
Tuesday’s rain totals; many places saw at least some rain, though not everyone. (Harris County Flood Control)

Speaking of, this evening, Braniff is going to have more on some of the “why” behind our summertime storms!

TODAY

Given the action of the last few days, I feel obligated to at least include a chance of showers and a thunderstorm today. That said, weather radar is much less active this morning than it has been the last couple days. The weather models also insist that activity will be less than yesterday. This does have merit, as the heat dome over the Plains has expanded in the last 24 hours, meaning slightly drier air should be taking hold.

Upper air analysis map from last evening shows a more amplified ridge and slightly warmer temperatures aloft, meaning support for storms has diminished some. (Ohio State)
Upper air analysis map from last evening shows a more amplified ridge and slightly warmer temperatures aloft, meaning support for storms has diminished some. (Ohio State)

Still, it would be wise to be cautious with the forecast today. We’ll say, “Probably not many showers, but there should still be a few around.”

HRRR model forecast today shows the best concentration of showers south of Houston. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model forecast today shows the best concentration of showers south of Houston. (Weather Bell)

Temperatures begin their upward march though: Back into the solid mid 90s today.

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