Since September 1st, Houston has registered a mere three-quarters of an inch of rain, which is the driest start to meteorological fall (September-November) since 1953 (0.47″). More recently, 1992 only saw 1.08″ and the drought-ridden 2011 only saw 1.28″ of rain in that same time period. It’s the fifth driest start to autumn on record.
Slide the bar on the image above to see the week to week comparison of drought coverage (and statistics) across the Houston area. (NOAA)
As you’d expect, with yesterday’s drought monitor update, coverage of drought conditions in the Houston area increased by over 30 percent week over week. We need rain. October is normally our second wettest month of the year (trailing only July). We average over 5 inches of rain in a typical October. Hopefully we are able to cash in on some rain chances next week. Otherwise, watch for drought coverage to expand even more in the days ahead.
Today
No rain in the meantime. Houston officially hit 90 degrees on Thursday, and we’ll feel a touch hotter today. Look for low 90s and a bit of humidity. Clouds will mix with some sun and haze otherwise. Pollen remains painfully high due to ragweed, and air quality will remain on the poor side in the morning via smog and in the late day via ground ozone.
Weekend
Saturday looks fairly similar to Friday in most aspects. Morning lows may be a touch warmer due to clouds. Daytime high temperatures may be a couple degrees cooler, but we’ll see a good deal of sunshine emerge. Subtly, a weak front, which crosses the area later Friday, will start to usher in a reinforcing shot of dry air for the weekend days. We should notice a slightly more pleasant morning on Sunday with lower humidity during the day, despite highs in the still in the mid or upper-80s.
Morning lows on Sunday will be generally in the 60s with some 50s likely in outlying areas east, north, and west of Houston. (NOAA)
Aside from it being a bit warmer than usual, all weekend plans should be fine.
Early next week
Monday looks a lot like Sunday and Tuesday a lot like Friday. Does that make sense? Still pleasant but warm Monday and then warmer and a little more humid on Tuesday.
Mid to late next week
On Wednesday, it appears we actually get a legitimately strong surge of humidity into the area, which will make it feel more like late summer. Wednesday and Thursday seem unlikely candidates for “comfortable” weather. Look for upper-80s by day and 70s by night. Beyond that, there are questions as to the timing and strength of a cold front and how much moisture it will offer. That will determine the extent of our rain chances for next week. While I’m hopeful for some rain, this is not likely to be the drought-denter we are looking for.
Tropics
Here in Houston, we have no concerns. We have gotten some questions about the Caribbean disturbance, which is now Tropical Depression 13. The official forecast for TD 13 brings it due west across the Caribbean into Central America, specifically Nicaragua by the end of the weekend as a hurricane.
Tropical Depression 13 is expected to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua this weekend. Hopefully its forward speed will limit severe impacts to Central America. (NOAA)
Thankfully, this is moving quickly and is abnormally far south, so hopefully that limits its intensity upside and subsequent impacts to Central America. But for those of you traveling to Cancun or Cozumel this weekend, you’ll be fine. Those of you with interests in other Central American nations will want to monitor this storm’s progress. The next name on the list is Julia.
We are waking up to our coolest morning of the season so far today, with Bush Airport registering in the mid-50s. Rural portions of Montgomery County and between Houston and Beaumont in Liberty and Jefferson Counties are even in the 40s this morning.
We will continue this delightful stretch of weather into and through this weekend. So, if you’re free on Sunday, come celebrate with myself, Eric, and Maria (along with Dwight and Lee!) at the Houston Botanic Garden for our Fall Day!
If you’ll be attending, we’d love if you could RSVP here if you wish. Thanks as always for your support, and we look forward to saying hello!
Today
Abundant sunshine and pleasant. Highs in the low to mid-80s. That’s it. We’ll also begin to see offshore waters calm down a bit as Ian’s distant impacts wind down. Winds should be 5 to 15 mph.
Weekend
We should see wall to wall sunshine this weekend. Look for highs in the mid-80s on Saturday, possibly creeping into the upper-80s by Sunday afternoon.
Look for more widespread 50s on Saturday morning outside the urban core of Houston and away from the Gulf. (Pivotal Weather)
Morning lows will be mostly in the 50s tomorrow and upper-50s to low-60s on Sunday morning.
Early next week
We’ll continue to see sunshine next week, but I am thinking there will be more high clouds to speak of, perhaps turning us mostly cloudy at times. A Pacific hurricane and some more upper-level moisture streaming across Mexico will likely spoil the blue skies. Unfortunately this won’t come with any beneficial rain it would seem, with most of it falling west of Texas.
Rainfall over the next 7 days will be non-existent in Southeast Texas. (Pivotal Weather)
In addition, we’ll slowly warm back up with highs in the upper-80s to low-90s and morning lows generally in the mid-60s.
Late next week
High pressure building across the Gulf from the Atlantic will allow us to warm up even a bit more later next week. Look for more 90s than 80s for a couple days I think. Our next front *may* get here next weekend, but it looks dry and weak right now, so I’m not optimistic that the dry weather and a late summer swoon will end. We shall see.
Tropics
As recovery efforts continue across Florida, Ian is approaching the coast of South Carolina this morning. It should make landfall later today likely near Georgetown, SC, between Charleston and Myrtle Beach. Ian reintensified into a hurricane yesterday as it moved offshore. It currently has a wide swath of tropical storm force winds and a small area of 75 to 85 mph winds near the center.
Hurricane Ian Part II will be less intense than Part I but still should produce significant rain, flooding, surge, and some wind on the Carolina coast. (NOAA)
Notice how much wider the wind swath (orange) is than the cone (white) in the image above. It’s an important lesson in the limitations of the cone, as impacts can extend well outside the width of the cone. Whatever the case, here’s hoping Ian’s second act underachieves on the Carolina coast today and tomorrow.
Like some of you I am sure, being stuck in a cold house with my wife, kids, and mother-in-law in the middle of the February 2021 freeze was the tipping point for us. It was time to get a generator. Also like many of you as a result of the pandemic, we were in the middle of reassessing our living decisions and space needs around that same time. It was not until summer 2021 that we decided to move to West U and started exploring a generator for our new home.
Much like Eric did for his generator, and with his blessing, we used a portion of Reliant’s annual sponsorship to have a whole-home generator installed at the Lanza household. Reliant, of course, is the multi-year sponsor of Space City Weather. As in Eric’s case, my experience will reflect that of any consumer in my situation. We laughed, we cried, and it was not always pretty. But it got done.
Obviously, getting a generator is an investment. An average installation will likely run you between $10,000 to $15,000 depending on your home and needs, and that may have even nudged up a bit due to inflation. That said, I think we have learned from recent disasters both here in Texas and along the Gulf Coast that if you are able to purchase a whole-home generator, it will likely be a worthy investment. This is not something I really ever thought I’d do but having an infant and toddler roaming around a powerless house can change minds. My goal in this post is to describe the process of having a whole-home generator installed in a 2022 world, sharing how my experience differed from Eric’s that he wrote about last year.
Reliant works with a Houston-based company called Quality Home Products of Texas. To begin this effort, Quality sent a technician to my house back in November 2021. Joey was our tech, and he was extremely informative and knowledgeable about the process. We live in an older house (1940s) that has been modernized, so there were a few quirks about our situation in terms of wiring, logistics, etc. Those became an issue during the installation process, but broadly, Joey’s plan worked on paper. They were good at finding workable, minimally invasive solutions for a home’s unique situation.
The first physical element of the process was getting a pad installed.
We outlined where the generator would go in our yard, placed some stakes in the ground, signed a contract and paid 25 percent of the total up front. Here is where my situation first deviated a bit from Eric’s experience. Eric’s home required a stand, but in our case a pad worked fine. To do this, workers came on two visits to construct the “outline” of the pad and then pour concrete. Both visits were quick, easy, and required little effort on our part.
The second difference from Eric’s experience was the Great Supply Chain Crisis of late 2021 and 2022. When we signed the contract in November, we were told that the process was going to be a bit delayed because of supplies. Apparently, a lot of folks want generators! The tentative timeline was that installation would probably be in February or March. Being fairly plugged into the news, I expected this, and it was just an inevitable outcome that was understandable. I appreciated Joey being honest about it up front.
Our gas meter upgrade was one of the thorniest parts of the process. It involved a bit of diplomatic navigation between CenterPoint and Quality Home Products, but once complete, it worked fine.
Then, as it turns out, our approval process in West U hit a delay. Thus, my installation was delayed another month or two in City Hall. Finally, we got the ball rolling in April, the pad poured in May, and the installation in June. So why am I writing this in September? A number of things: My schedule and a Covid outbreak in our house, then a number of minor issues that led to five- to seven-day delays each time. We had issues getting our gas meter upgraded with some back-and-forth between Quality and CenterPoint. The regulator necessary for gas supply to the house was installed a week before CenterPoint was able to come out to upgrade the meter, leading to hot water supply issues. We also had issues with how our HVAC system connected to the generator. We had a couple parts that needed replacing. My takeaway here: Inevitably, things happen so just be prepared to deal with that in this process. There were difficult moments, but Quality worked with us fully to navigate the issues and they got the job done.
Ultimately, the generator was installed in June and we reached startup in late August.
The process of installing a generator provided ample headaches, but hearing it test itself on Mondays offers peace of mind that is tough to put a price tag on.
The installation process itself was about a half-day effort involving your power being cut for a couple hours in that time. Factor that into your plans if you work from home or want to avoid excessively hot or cold days. But overall, it was rather unobtrusive. The startup process was also straightforward. It does involve a brief power cut to test the generator. I got to see first-hand what would happen if we lost power, and admittedly it’s pretty cool. The power goes off, and within about 10 seconds, the generator turns on and life inside the home can resume a degree of normalcy. To ensure things stay operational, the generator is set to test itself once a week, and if anything is flagged, they’ll come out to see what’s up.
All in all, the installation process itself is not that bad. But it was a long road, and it certainly was not without a couple points of legitimate frustration. Despite a couple trip-ups, Quality does good work overall, and they have fairly comprehensive maintenance and monitoring services as well. All my interactions with their staff were positive. And to their credit, they apologized and explained the issues whenever things hit a snag.
If you decide to get a generator, plan ahead and prepare to be patient. Another piece of advice? Pay attention when they explain certain elements of the process. There may come a point where you have to explain to someone why something was done a certain way (like me trying to resolve issues between a plumber and CenterPoint). That can be taxing, but it will save you frustration. You don’t need to be an electrician or plumber to understand the whole process but ask questions and give the installers your attention.
Now, say a generator is not in the cards for you. There are alternatives to keep the critical functions of your home up and running in the event of power loss. Reliant is knowledgeable about these solutions as well and will work with you to find the right product for your lifestyle.
Goal Zero, Reliant’s sister company, provides numerous affordable and flexible power solutions, including portable power stations that can be charged through solar panels, power banks for smaller devices, lanterns and more – all perfect for when storms roll through or getting outdoors.
These devices can power everything from fridges and internet modems to phones, laptops and even critical medical devices. They can also integrate directly with your home’s circuits for a seamless experience.
In the event of a major storm or grid-related problems, portable backup power solutions will give you some peace-of-mind that you’ll have power to keep important devices charged and stay connected to family and friends.
• To learn more about backup power options, visit reliant.com/backuppower. (Reliant customers receive a 15 percent discount on Goal Zero products!)
Overall, I am grateful and relieved that this process is finally over. But as I said, while frustrating, the peace of mind we have now is tough to replicate. So was it worth it? I believe so. I also have confidence I can assist Eric in the event of a power-breaking storm! And that’s good for everyone.
Good Sunday to you. With the potential of a major hurricane in the Gulf in 3 days, we just want to post to reassure our Houston readers that this storm will not impact Texas and offer an update for our neighbors to the east.
Just to reemphasize, for Houston, we are in fine shape. The window of impacts from Ian has likely narrowed from east of New Orleans through most of Florida.
As of Sunday morning, Ian has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft traversing the storm are not finding anything super noteworthy this morning. Ian remains a tropical storm trying to organize itself. The satellite picture is less than overwhelming.
Ian doesn’t look like a classic tropical storm or even a tropical storm at all really. But the expectation is that Ian will rapidly organize tonight and tomorrow. (Tropical Tidbits)
That said, with a generally favorable environment surrounding it, Ian should be able to rapidly intensify at some point in the next 36 hours. If Ian continues to struggle some into tomorrow, the odds of that drop but by no means does the lack of organization indicate much about the long term peak of Ian at this point. Rapid intensification happens…rapidly. Despite the raggedness at the moment, Ian is still likely to become a major hurricane as it moves into the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
What will impact Ian’s intensity at landfall is exactly where it tracks. If the storm turns right faster and plows into Fort Myers through Tampa, Ian will likely be near peak intensity as it does so, a really bad situation. If the storm heads more north toward the Big Bend or Apalachicola Bay, the storm should be a bit under peak intensity as it comes ashore. If the storm goes farther west toward Pensacola or Mobile, the hope would be that Ian would weaken even a bit faster. Why? Wind shear. That being said, if a more northerly/westerly track does occur, Ian will be expanding in physical size, meaning a larger wind field. While this wouldn’t be quite the same as another “I” storm we are familiar with (Ike, which also weakened on approach to landfall), the idea would be the same for Florida: A very strong, powerful storm increasing in size but weakening at landfall can still produce very damaging impacts, and whatever the “category” of the storm, folks in Florida should be taking this seriously.
So where will Ian go? That’s the million dollar question, and I have to say, the forecast track of Ian is fairly complicated this close to impact time. The National Hurricane Center outlook shows Ian coming in somewhere between roughly Fort Myers and Pensacola.
The National Hurricane Center shows Ian developing into a hurricane by tomorrow and a major hurricane by Tuesday, with a strike on the Florida coast, somewhere between Fort Myers and Pensacola by mid to late week. (NOAA)
This is as good a forecast as any in my personal opinion, and I think it correctly splits the risks down the middle. If we look at a more complicated map of what we call a “super ensemble” of a bunch of different ensemble models, you get a very similar looking cone.
The multi-model ensemble view of Ian, which takes multiple different model ensemble members shows that on Thursday afternoon, the center of Ian will likely be from somewhere over the Peninsula to perhaps approaching the western Panhandle, right in line with the NHC forecast. (Arctic Wx/Tomer Burg)
We use this approach to get a better sense of risk and/or consensus within the modeling itself. There are quite clearly two camps it seems; one that brings Ian near Tampa and another toward the Panhandle. But there is ample potential in between too. So this is another instance in which you have to look at the entire cone as being at risk versus just a point on a map. Hopefully we can narrow this further as today goes on so folks can begin to prepare adequately.
For now, if you know anyone in Florida or visiting Florida, they should be ready to act sooner than later. Impacts would hit southwest Florida by Wednesday or the Panhandle by later Thursday depending on the track.
As far as the Artemis I mission goes, the decision to delay the launch happened yesterday, and according to NASA, they will decide tonight on whether or not to rollback. Very difficult and consequential decisions here. Increasingly, the length of time needed to adequately prepare for storms and issue directives is longer than what is realistically possible from a weather prediction scenario, particularly when it comes to Gulf systems. This is another reason why hurricane preparedness plans are so important. You’ll almost always have less time than you think.
We’ll have another update on Ian tomorrow, as well as an update on the rest of our Houston area forecast. We are still on track for a cold front tomorrow that will usher in cooler and more comfortable weather probably through the weekend! Daytime highs will still be hot, near 90 or well into the 80s most days, but the humidity will be low, allowing for nighttime temperatures in the 60s and perhaps 50s inland. More tomorrow!
