Matt Lanza

Friday saw some very scattered rain across the area. Most inland areas got nothing, but a few spots picked up a half-inch to an inch or so. A few areas around Galveston Bay and along the coast saw a bit more. That refrain will be with us today, with inland areas mostly escaping storms, but coastal areas seeing the highest odds. This is thanks to Invest 98L, the tropical disturbance off the coast that will be tracking toward the southern part of Texas, keeping most of the rain to our south.

Invest 98L

A look at satellite this morning shows that 98L is spinning away in the Gulf. It remains ill-defined, so any development is not going to happen quickly, and it will almost certainly run out of time to become anything of note before coming ashore.

A reconnaissance aircraft is on the schedule to investigate this system around midday today, if it is still deemed necessary. The three big points from our perspective are:

1.) Any tropical development is going to be low-end and short-lived.

2.) No direct impacts are expected in the Houston area or along the coast north of Freeport.

3.) The primary issue in South Texas (Rio Grande Valley, Brush Country, Corpus Christi) from 98L will be heavy rainfall, mostly beneficial but perhaps enough to produce some flash flooding.

Minor coastal impacts, like some erosion or wave runup are possible from Matagorda Bay south. For Galveston down through Surfside Beach, the water may runup the beach a good bit at high tide but flooding is not expected.

Houston area

With 98L not a direct concern for us, we will be on shower watch today. From downtown Houston to the north and west, minimal shower activity is expected today, with just a handful of downpours possible, much like yesterday. South and east of downtown, the odds of showers are notably higher, but even there it will be mostly just scattered in nature, meaning some folks won’t see rain. Wherever showers do fall, a quick half-inch to inch will be possible. Highs will range from the 80s on the coast to upper-90s inland.

For Sunday, expect much more of the same. Some of Sunday will depend on how organized 98L gets before coming ashore. If it can consolidate most storminess, it may keep most areas, even near the coast dry. If it remains broadly disorganized, scattered showers will be more likely, mainly south and east of downtown Houston. We’ll update you on this tomorrow!

We apologize if you did not receive an email yesterday. We had some technical issues to sort out, and hopefully those are fixed before I press send today!

While we lacked any organized storms on Thursday, there were some neighborhoods that saw a smattering of rain. Other places saw rain or heard thunder in the middle of the night. Rain chances will stick with us through Sunday, but the focus is going to lean more to our south or along the coast.

Today & weekend

Radar this morning is buzzing from Houston to points southeast. Scattered downpours are with us.

As the day progresses, the focus will continue to likely back down to areas closer to the coast. Inland areas will still carry a chance for rain as well, but most modeling (and the morning radar imagery) suggests the bulk of today’s showers will remain south and east of Houston. Low rain chances doesn’t mean no rain chances, and any rain that does fall could be heavy and add up to an inch or so over a short amount of time.

Highs will be variable today, ranging from the 80s near the coast to the low or mid 90s inland and perhaps near 100 in the Brazos Valley.

One wild card in the forecast the next few days is what’s happening in the Gulf. Recall from Tuesday’s Eye on the Tropics post, we noted that the Gulf would be the area to at least monitor.

Well, as of Friday morning, there is a disturbance in the Gulf, and while it’s not currently expected to develop, what it may do is focus shower and storm activity offshore at times this weekend. The system itself will track toward Corpus Christi or Brownsville, pushing inland on Sunday. Assuming showers and storms do focus closer to that system, that could mean that we see relatively low rain chances in the Houston area for Saturday.

So, for both weekend days, expect to see sun, clouds, and at least a few showers and storms in the area. The greatest coverage and highest chances will be along the coast, with chances dropping off significantly as you head north or west from Highway 59. All of us have some chance at rain this weekend, but your odds increase south and east of Houston. Sunday could see higher rainfall coverage a little more inland as winds become less parallel to the coast and more onshore. But we’ll assess that through the weekend and keep you posted.

Total forecast rainfall this weekend (ending Monday morning) is shown below. While some areas will see more rain than this and others less, this map is a good average of where we think things will end up over the coming days.

Temperatures will be quite variable this weekend, perhaps only in the low 80s with clouds and showers on the coast, mid-90s in Houston proper, and upper 90s to near 100 well inland.

Early next week

We revert back to the usual Summer 2022 fare Monday through Wednesday of next week. We will likely see mid to upper-90s in Houston, with 100+ farther inland and lower 90s at the coast.

Rain chances should drop to about 10, maybe 20 percent each day.

Later next week

I’ve been watching the weather model forecasts all week with some curiosity for late next week or weekend. There have been hints of a cooler, wetter pattern arriving across all of Texas on both the GFS & European models. While it’s too soon to get into details, it does appear we will see a chance at a front in the area, some “less hot” (not cool) weather, and potentially some higher rain chances than normal by next weekend. We have been burned by these scenarios more than once this summer, so I’m not exactly jumping in with both feet here. But there’s a healthy amount of evidence that rain chances will pick up further in 8 to 10 days. More on this Monday.

We’ll keep you posted on the rain chances this weekend with a post or two tomorrow or Sunday.

The tropics are beginning to resemble what is more normal for this time of year, but the good news at least for us is that there’s nothing of immediate concern on our radar. We will start to pick up the cadence a bit, however.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

While no activity is anticipated to directly impact Texas, there are several disturbances we will be watching over the next week or so.

Invest 97L

The first item up for discussion is Invest 97L, way out in the deep Atlantic. Recall, invests are just a naming convention for disturbances that the National Weather Service believes merit further investigation. They cycle from 90 to 99 and then repeat. It allows us to see more data, input better data into our regular weather models, and see some initial runs of specialized tropical models on the disturbance.

In this case, Invest 97L is chugging along southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

The satellite image above does not inspire much enthusiasm for this disturbance at this point. It has a minimal amount of thunderstorm activity (convection) around it, and it seems to be struggling a bit in a rather hostile Atlantic environment. If the first batch of wind shear near it does not completely shred it, the second batch just east of the islands probably will.

With this sort of wind shear around right now, it would seem that anything coming west is going to struggle. Weather models are split on how this looks over the next week or two, with the GFS knocking back the shear some, and the European model keeping the party going. But as long as this shear is in place, it’s good news for us with respect to anything coming off Africa.

The starting lineup

Speaking of, the “wave train” predicted to emerge off Africa is rather congested right now. We have two in line to emerge over the next week or so, and there’s a third in eastern Africa that should emerge sometime next week.

While these disturbances are lined up and ready to play in the Atlantic, again, the wind shear story is one that will have to change for any of them to have a chance. It’s also somewhat notable that there’s a pretty healthy gap between the first two disturbances and the third one. Quiet in late August would be rare. All in all, you probably couldn’t paint a better picture right now in the Atlantic; some activity to watch but nothing imminent.

Gulf update

Seasons like this can lull you to sleep, but I want to just close today with a look at the Gulf. Because of the situation in the Atlantic, the most risk in Texas for the rest of August may come from something much closer to home in the Gulf. Do we see anything worth watching? The short answer is no.

The longer answer is that we have a couple fronts trying to nudge their way to the coast over the next week or two that we should probably keep a side eye on. But at this point in time, there’s nothing signaling anything of legitimate concern.

We officially topped off at 101° yesterday for the third straight day, but we think the next few days will feature more tolerable temperatures, as rain chances inch upward. And it’s needed, as drought has expanded across the Houston area with 12 percent of the area in exceptional drought (level 4/4).

This was underscored by the deadly grass fire in the Cypress area yesterday. Grass fires can happen in the Houston area, so please use caution, even if you get a good bit of rain in the coming days.

Today

With a disturbance in the middle levels of the atmosphere moving toward Matagorda Bay, we are already seeing numerous showers and storms develop — over the Gulf.

As the day goes on, we’ll see rainfall expand onshore. I still don’t think everyone will see rain today, but most places near the coast should see showers, with more scattered coverage as you go inland from there. Storms should move slowly but steadily today, so areas with the most persistent rains could see an inch or two, while some neighborhoods will only hear distant thunder. But coverage will be greater than it has been in recent days.

With clouds and showers nearby, look for highs ranging from the upper 80s at the coast to low 90s in Houston to middle or upper 90s to the north and west.

Weekend

We’re going to maintain pretty healthy rain chances into Saturday. Again, not everyone will see rain tomorrow, but there should be coverage along the lines of what we see today; initially at the coast in the morning, spreading inland as the day progresses. Rain totals will range from nothing to an inch or two in the most persistent or slowest moving storms. Morning lows in the 70s will give way to daytime highs similar to today, with upper-80s to low-90s for Houston south and east, building to the upper-90s to near 100 or so from Columbus to College Station to Madisonville.

Sunday looks to see very similar weather, with hit and miss storms and temperatures about where they will be on Saturday.

Overall, rain totals should average a quarter to half-inch or so across the area, with some neighborhoods seeing several inches of rain and others seeing next to nothing. Yes, someone will end up disappointed from this period of higher rain chances, but it’s our best opportunity in some time.

Early next week

Rain chances should ebb heading into Monday and Tuesday, or at least be more co-located with the daily sea breeze off the Gulf. So coverage should diminish but not disappear completely. Temperatures will respond, back up to the low-90s along the Gulf, mid-90s in Houston, and near 100 well inland.

Later next week

The back half of next week is sort of in flux right now. One model (the Euro) is trying to bring a front into our area, which would enhance shower and storm coverage, though it would be unlikely to bring heat relief. The GFS keeps that away, but it does have higher rain chances later next week. Bottom line? We need a couple days to sort out late next week. But expect some rain chances and hot (but not extremely hot) weather.

Tropics

All remains quiet into early next week.