Matt Lanza

So, last Friday I noted how Houston’s pollen season had probably been in the process of peaking, slightly later than usual. The last two days laughed in the face of that comment and produced the highest tree pollen values I can find in the City of Houston’s pollen count archives (2013-2022), with values over 10,000 Wednesday and over 12,000 yesterday. Going back to 2013, there is not a remotely comparable day in Houston in terms of tree pollen, specifically oak pollen. The next closest value I can find is 6,440 on March 21, 2019. Keep in mind that pollen counts are not conducted on weekends and holidays, so there is missing data, but the odds of all the maximum days not showing up over 9 years of data is quite low.

So then, what is it? Why is this year so much worse than any recent year? There are two theories I have, neither of which I can definitively back up. The first is the drought over Texas. Since February 1st, we’ve had 3 days of rainfall over a quarter inch at Hobby Airport. Since 2000, we’ve averaged six of them. More on drought in a second, but in general rain does help wash some of this pollen away. The dryness, combined with the breezy conditions we’ve had, is just a brutal recipe right now. I’m also guessing that a lot of pollen from central Texas has found its way to Houston with those gusty winds too, as drought is much worse there.

My second theory is that the latest freeze in Houston since 1999 may also be playing a role here. We had a mid-March pair of freezing nights, and I’m wondering if that may have delayed the onset of the excessive pollen, meaning the oak pollen season is delayed. Normally we would be declining by now, but we may be at peak instead.

So my theory is that the dry and windy spring are making the season more extreme, and the later than usual freeze has made it peak later. I may be wrong here, and I would love to be corrected by a tree or pollen expert if so. Hopefully by this time next week, we’re discussing more manageable pollen levels.

Dry, dry, dry

Speaking of drought, the new drought monitor map came out yesterday, which shows that drought coverage in the Houston area inched up just a bit, primarily in Galveston, Chambers, and Brazoria Counties. Texas as a whole did just a bit better week over week.

Rainfall over the next two weeks looks to be near average in the Houston area and below average in the rest of Texas. Drought should hold or worsen statewide.

Red flag warnings are posted for today across all of southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. A red flag warning means that there is very high fire danger due to wind and low humidity levels. Dry brush and grass certainly is not helping.

Basically, use common sense today. Outdoor burning is discouraged. Don’t park on dry grass. Don’t discard cigarette butts out the car window. And if you see any sort of grass fire, report it right away before it can cause bigger problems. As of Thursday evening there were 48 active wildfires across Texas, according to the Texas Wildfire Incident Response System.

Weekend forecast

So that was a lengthy intro to today’s post! Why? There’s not much happening outside of that. Look for a sunny Friday, Saturday, and probably Sunday too. Winds will be gusty today with highs well into the 70s. Tomorrow should see lighter winds with morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs in the lower 80s. Sunday will see a shift to onshore, southerly winds and they could be strong at times, gusting up over 25 mph. Highs will be in the low 80s after morning lows in the low 60s. Humidity will start to become noticeable by later Sunday.

Next week

That onshore flow and building humidity will lead to more clouds than sun and perhaps a shower on Monday. We should still manage the low-80s, but morning lows will struggle to get below 70 degrees. Winds will be gusty again Monday also. Tuesday and Wednesday should see a chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with continued breezy conditions and warm, humid temperatures. We may or may not get a cold front through here later Wednesday or early Thursday, as modeling has been bouncing all over the place on that. If that happens, look for cooler, drier air for the end of next week. We’ll update you with the latest on Monday.

Good morning! We really hope you enjoyed yesterday’s weather. It was truly sublime, though if you’re a seasonal allergy sufferer like me, it was not quite as nice as it could have been. Yesterday was the highest tree pollen value I’ve seen in Houston this year, and as you’d expect it seems to be following a fairly typical pattern for spring. Below is a chart of total tree pollen in Houston from January 1 through April 30 over the last 5 years, plus 2022 so far. Keep in mind that there is no data for weekends or holidays, and there are currently multiple missing days in March unfortunately.

Where the pattern may be breaking down is on which date the “peak” of tree pollen occurs. I will confirm this once March’s archive is published, but if we go by what data we do have, the peak of tree pollen occurred like this in Houston:

Year	Peak Date of Pollen
2022 (so far)	March 31
2021	March 26
2020	March 6
2019	March 21
2018	March 14
2017	March 14

Assuming yesterday was our peak day for pollen, it came rather late. Data in Houston goes back to 2013, and this year would be the latest peak since at least then. That peak date is contingent on numerous things like rain, temperatures, wind, etc. So each year will be different, obviously, but this year does indeed seem to be peaking late. Based on previous seasons, we likely have about 10 to 14 more days of really high pollen before things begin to fall off steadily. There is hope for us.

Today

On to the weather, and today should be another good one. We will likely see some clouds at times, but for the most part today will be classified as mostly sunny. Look for highs around 80, give or take a few degrees. Winds will be mainly light, but up just a notch over yesterday.

Weekend

Saturday should be a fair day for most folks, with a decent amount of sunshine around. There will likely be some showers with a passing disturbance and approaching weak front, but many or most of you may not see much of anything come from that tomorrow. I’m guessing the clouds and shower chance will be highest in the morning hours, followed by clearing for the afternoon.

Sunday should be just fine with plentiful sunshine with daytime highs in the low-80s and morning lows around 60 or so each day (a few degrees cooler outside the city). Winds will be variable but generally 5 to 15 mph.

Early next week

Monday should begin fine with a mix of clouds and sun. We should be able to make the low-80s after a mild mid-60s start to the day. You will notice a bit more of an onshore breeze Monday, with 15 mph winds, and a bit gustier at times near the coast. Additionally, it looks like we’ll see some showers and thunderstorms develop on Monday afternoon.

The SPC has published their day 4 severe outlook and included the Houston area, primarily north of I-10 as having a chance for severe thunderstorms. We will likely be dealing with some “capping” in the atmosphere, as we normally do down here in spring. This increase in temperatures with altitude normally helps limit our severe weather risk near the Gulf, as opposed to what is normally seen to our north. For now, while severe storms are possible on Monday, we are comfortable saying the highest odds may be north of the Houston metro area. We’ll obviously have an update on this Monday.

Tuesday and beyond

Any storms on Monday will occur well ahead of a cold front. That front won’t actually get here until Wednesday. So we may see lingering showers on Tuesday morning, followed by clearing and warm weather Tuesday, with low to mid-80s. Wednesday could be quite warm with slightly less humidity and sunshine. Wednesday’s high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper-80s right now.

For those that want more pleasant weather, it should arrive for a couple days behind Wednesday’s front. We will see lower humidity and sunshine, along with slightly cooler temperatures. More on that next week!

We’ll get to all the sun and sneezes in a minute. First, let’s talk drought again. This week’s rainfall came at a good time. Much of the state saw at least some rainfall from the storm. This led to about 3% of state being removed from drought (and about 25% of the Houston area being removed from drought as well).

We will probably need a storm a week affecting a greater part of Texas to remain with minimal drought concerns and to improve the situation elsewhere in the state. We may see one storm next week, but it looks less widespread and significant than this week’s storm as of today. No one will complain if we can keep the tornadoes away from Texas though.

Weekend

Today, tomorrow, and Sunday look great. Each day will see a little bit of warming, and it will feel solidly like spring. Look for about 80 or so today, and low 80s tomorrow and Sunday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s both Saturday and Sunday. It will be sunny with low humidity but perhaps just enough to allow for some morning fog in spots. Winds will be light to moderate all weekend, generally about 10 to 15 mph.

This weather will cause two problems, however. The abundant sunshine, combined with local pollution will likely lead to high levels of ozone each day this weekend. Second, as Eric noted yesterday, everything’s blooming, so tree pollen is roofing, as it usually does this time of year. If you suffer from seasonal allergies (Hi, it’s me), it’s probably not getting better anytime soon.

Next week

Monday should just be an extension of the weekend with a good amount of sunshine. But there will be some changes. As a strong storm wraps up in the central Plains, onshore flow will begin to strengthen on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will likely jump to 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts at times, especially along the coast.

The next front will cruise through probably on Wednesday with a chance of showers and storms. At this time, it does not look to be too big a deal, but we’ll keep tabs on things. That should usher in another couple days of fair weather to close out March. Ahead of the front, look for temps in the 80s, with lows in the 60s, and noticeably more humidity than the weekend. Behind the front, we’d probably cool into the 70s with lows perhaps in the 50s.

Welcome to a semi-regular series at Space City Weather we’re going to call “SCW Book Club.” Anyone who follows me (Matt) on Twitter knows I almost always share what I am reading with everyone. Often it has to do with Revolutionary Era history, but sometimes I actually read about stuff that is more relevant to my job. The goal of these posts is to share with you books about topics relevant or tangential to weather, specifically here in Houston. Given that I do read about other things (like the history of Ukraine at the moment), this will be an irregular series, but I will make sure to make mention of what relevant read I will be tackling at some point next, hopefully sooner than later.

The first book I want to share with you in this series is Rachel T. Kimbro’s “In Too Deep.” Kimbro is the Dean of the School of Social Sciences at Rice University and a professor of sociology. Her recently published book, “In Too Deep” examines the experiences and decision-making processes of a group of 36 mothers in an upper-middle class neighborhood of Houston. She does not name the flood-prone neighborhood, instead calling it “Bayou Oaks, which is a pseudonym for the area in southwest Houston. If you read the book and are from Houston, it becomes fairly evident which general neighborhood is being discussed. Much of the neighborhood’s identity centers around children and the elementary school, which provides a major focus of the book.

In her introduction, Dr. Kimbro argues that the disaster experiences of more affluent families are an overlooked part of disaster research, which understandably often focuses on those most vulnerable with the fewest resources to call upon. After reading her book, it makes a lot of sense to me why it was a good idea to write, beyond the story it tells. Kimbro details why these families chose to live in this particular neighborhood and why they rejected the suburbs or other neighborhoods in the city. That becomes important in understanding why most of them chose to stay, even after repetitive flooding.

She coins a phrase in the book that I find quite useful: “Flood capital.” In other words, the experiences of these families through repeated flooding, as well as their extremely deep social network in the community provides them access to resources many people in our area can’t find as easily. Some of these families were able to make arrangements for housing and repairs even before the storm hit because of the flood capital they had gained. This of course is in addition to their well-off socioeconomic standing that allows them access to many financial and recovery resources as well. As Kimbro notes, there is disaster research suggesting that those that are well-off before a disaster are often even better off after the disaster and disasters actually increase social inequality. Her research will add to the understanding of how that could be.

The bulk of the story really does focus on the mothers though. They generally raise their families using the principal of “intensive mothering,” which is basically child-centered, expert-guided, labor intensive, and expensive. The book delves into how this parenting technique is practiced specific to these families. You’ll also learn how within these families, there is a large difference between how the fathers and mothers viewed the risks from Harvey, as well as how they managed the recovery. I will just say that the mothers of this story handled the majority of the labor involved in both the preparation and recovery, and they have been through an awful lot.

This topic is not one that’s easy to discuss, and it’s one that is uncomfortable at times. But the story is critical to understanding the Harvey experience, disasters, why buyouts won’t appeal to everyone, and why some people fare so much better than others. This should help shape how community leaders can help less well-off residents improve their reactions and response to disasters. Additionally, it shines a light on why people stay in places they know are disaster-prone, which can offer food for thought for community planning in the future.

Kimbro’s writing is really clear and understandable, and the book makes for a pretty brisk read. She seamlessly weaves in the sociology with first-hand accounts from the mothers she interviewed, and it makes for an informative story — but still a story. This book has valuable academic results, but it does not read as an academic book, which should allow it to appeal to a broader audience. I thought it was excellent, and I would encourage you to consider also giving it a read.

A quick warning: The book does discuss the actual flooding, damage, and impacts, so for some of you, it may trigger unpleasant memories. While still very informative, if you were deeply impacted by Harvey it will be an uncomfortable read at times.

If you want to learn more, Rachel presented her work for a Kinder Institute webinar, which you can view here. You can also follow her on Twitter.

You can order “In Too Deep” from your favorite bookshop, or from Brazos Bookstore!

The next book in the SCW Book Club series will be “The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl,” by Timothy Egan, which I hope to get to later this spring. I’d like to have some kind of informal discussion with readers about the next book—perhaps in the form of an online book club—so if you’re interested in that get reading.