We’ll get to all the sun and sneezes in a minute. First, let’s talk drought again. This week’s rainfall came at a good time. Much of the state saw at least some rainfall from the storm. This led to about 3% of state being removed from drought (and about 25% of the Houston area being removed from drought as well).
Drought concerns were eased some across Texas, especially in the Houston area through Austin with this week’s storm. (US Drought Monitor)
We will probably need a storm a week affecting a greater part of Texas to remain with minimal drought concerns and to improve the situation elsewhere in the state. We may see one storm next week, but it looks less widespread and significant than this week’s storm as of today. No one will complain if we can keep the tornadoes away from Texas though.
Weekend
Today, tomorrow, and Sunday look great. Each day will see a little bit of warming, and it will feel solidly like spring. Look for about 80 or so today, and low 80s tomorrow and Sunday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s both Saturday and Sunday. It will be sunny with low humidity but perhaps just enough to allow for some morning fog in spots. Winds will be light to moderate all weekend, generally about 10 to 15 mph.
Monday should just be an extension of the weekend with a good amount of sunshine. But there will be some changes. As a strong storm wraps up in the central Plains, onshore flow will begin to strengthen on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will likely jump to 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts at times, especially along the coast.
The forecast map for Tuesday shows strengthening low pressure over Kansas and Nebraska which will help drive up onshore winds across Texas. (NOAA)
The next front will cruise through probably on Wednesday with a chance of showers and storms. At this time, it does not look to be too big a deal, but we’ll keep tabs on things. That should usher in another couple days of fair weather to close out March. Ahead of the front, look for temps in the 80s, with lows in the 60s, and noticeably more humidity than the weekend. Behind the front, we’d probably cool into the 70s with lows perhaps in the 50s.
Welcome to a semi-regular series at Space City Weather we’re going to call “SCW Book Club.” Anyone who follows me (Matt) on Twitter knows I almost always share what I am reading with everyone. Often it has to do with Revolutionary Era history, but sometimes I actually read about stuff that is more relevant to my job. The goal of these posts is to share with you books about topics relevant or tangential to weather, specifically here in Houston. Given that I do read about other things (like the history of Ukraine at the moment), this will be an irregular series, but I will make sure to make mention of what relevant read I will be tackling at some point next, hopefully sooner than later.
The first book I want to share with you in this series is Rachel T. Kimbro’s “In Too Deep.” Kimbro is the Dean of the School of Social Sciences at Rice University and a professor of sociology. Her recently published book, “In Too Deep” examines the experiences and decision-making processes of a group of 36 mothers in an upper-middle class neighborhood of Houston. She does not name the flood-prone neighborhood, instead calling it “Bayou Oaks, which is a pseudonym for the area in southwest Houston. If you read the book and are from Houston, it becomes fairly evident which general neighborhood is being discussed. Much of the neighborhood’s identity centers around children and the elementary school, which provides a major focus of the book.
“In Too Deep,” by Rice Dean of Sociology, Rachel T. Kimbro tells the story of Hurricane Harvey through the experiences of upper-middle class mothers in Houston. (University of California Press)
In her introduction, Dr. Kimbro argues that the disaster experiences of more affluent families are an overlooked part of disaster research, which understandably often focuses on those most vulnerable with the fewest resources to call upon. After reading her book, it makes a lot of sense to me why it was a good idea to write, beyond the story it tells. Kimbro details why these families chose to live in this particular neighborhood and why they rejected the suburbs or other neighborhoods in the city. That becomes important in understanding why most of them chose to stay, even after repetitive flooding.
She coins a phrase in the book that I find quite useful: “Flood capital.” In other words, the experiences of these families through repeated flooding, as well as their extremely deep social network in the community provides them access to resources many people in our area can’t find as easily. Some of these families were able to make arrangements for housing and repairs even before the storm hit because of the flood capital they had gained. This of course is in addition to their well-off socioeconomic standing that allows them access to many financial and recovery resources as well. As Kimbro notes, there is disaster research suggesting that those that are well-off before a disaster are often even better off after the disaster and disasters actually increase social inequality. Her research will add to the understanding of how that could be.
The bulk of the story really does focus on the mothers though. They generally raise their families using the principal of “intensive mothering,” which is basically child-centered, expert-guided, labor intensive, and expensive. The book delves into how this parenting technique is practiced specific to these families. You’ll also learn how within these families, there is a large difference between how the fathers and mothers viewed the risks from Harvey, as well as how they managed the recovery. I will just say that the mothers of this story handled the majority of the labor involved in both the preparation and recovery, and they have been through an awful lot.
This topic is not one that’s easy to discuss, and it’s one that is uncomfortable at times. But the story is critical to understanding the Harvey experience, disasters, why buyouts won’t appeal to everyone, and why some people fare so much better than others. This should help shape how community leaders can help less well-off residents improve their reactions and response to disasters. Additionally, it shines a light on why people stay in places they know are disaster-prone, which can offer food for thought for community planning in the future.
Kimbro’s writing is really clear and understandable, and the book makes for a pretty brisk read. She seamlessly weaves in the sociology with first-hand accounts from the mothers she interviewed, and it makes for an informative story — but still a story. This book has valuable academic results, but it does not read as an academic book, which should allow it to appeal to a broader audience. I thought it was excellent, and I would encourage you to consider also giving it a read.
A quick warning: The book does discuss the actual flooding, damage, and impacts, so for some of you, it may trigger unpleasant memories. While still very informative, if you were deeply impacted by Harvey it will be an uncomfortable read at times.
I am writing this at 9 PM, and we’ve had confirmed tornadoes this evening in Round Rock, Jarrell, Elgin, Taylor, and Snook, all to the west of the Houston area.
Each red dot represents a report of a tornado today. Multiple tornadoes were reported just east of Austin this afternoon and evening. In addition strong winds and large hail have also occurred. (NOAA)
Thus far in Houston it has been quiet. Some of you are likely prepared to shout “BUST!” at us, but as we’ve been discussing, this was expected to be a nighttime affair in Houston and not everyone is expected to see severe weather. Here’s what we can tell you about the rest of tonight.
Radar as of 9:20 PM shows one supercell exiting the Brazos Valley, some non-severe showers north of Houston, and a developing squall line along I-35 near and north of Austin. All this will expand in coverage and slowly slide east overnight. (College of DuPage)
First off, a Tornado Watch is in effect for most areas north of Spring and west of Brookshire. The majority of the Houston area is not in any severe weather watch as of 9 PM.
Through Midnight
No issues are expected aside from scattered showers, possibly becoming more numerous on a line from Lake Livingston through Katy. Severe weather is unlikely in Houston before midnight. As I write, there is currently a tornado warning through 9:45 PM northeast of College Station, but there are no other supercells on track for Houston. Good news for sure.
Midnight through 6 AM
This will be when the vast majority of the action occurs around here. Look for showers and some thunderstorms to become more numerous as the overnight hours progress, mainly on the north and west sides of Highway 59/I-69. So folks in Galveston and Lake Jackson will likely see minimal activity through about 3 AM or so. All this will eventually get picked up by a developing squall line that’s currently located in the Austin area, along I-35. That will expand and shift east. Look for this line to progress across the Houston area between about 4 AM and 8 AM. As this occurs, we will be at our highest risk for strong winds, hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. In other words, that will be the time of our highest odds for severe weather.
I do not want to minimize the tornado risk, as there is still going to be a healthy amount shear around, but these types of scenarios typically produce brief, lower-end tornadoes. So we are probably not going to see larger supercells with long-track tornadoes like we saw this afternoon and evening east of Austin. That said, given the potential for severe weather occurring overnight, you absolutely should have a way to be notified of weather warnings, be it using your phone or with a weather radio. Have a way to be notified and woken up should a tornado warning be issued for your area. And even if there aren’t tornadoes, damaging winds and potential for hail warrant your attention too.
In addition, flash flooding remains a possibility, as even non-severe storms will be capable of producing 1 to 2 inches or more an hour. We maintain a Stage 1 flood alert for the area, north of I-10.
After 6 AM
The good news is that once this line punches across the area by 8 AM or so, we’re done. We will see clearing and increasing sunshine with highs in the 70s and lower humidity.
Unless something ridiculous changes, Eric will have our next update for you a bit earlier than usual tomorrow morning. Try to get some sleep if you aren’t working the night shift, and if you are, please stay safe!
The ups and downs we’ve seen in the weather-world lately will continue heading into the next several days. A really nice weekend will give way to thunderstorms and locally heavy rain early next week, followed by more nice weather.
Today
The cold front is pushing through as I write this. There doesn’t appear to be any rain with it, but I suppose if you catch a sprinkle or brief shower through 8 AM or so, I wouldn’t be shocked. However, skies will quickly clear out behind the front, and it will be a mainly sunny day.
Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph today out of the north will keep it a blustery Friday. (Pivotal Weather)
You will notice a pretty gusty wind today. It will be a blustery one, with north or northwest winds of 15 mph, gusting as high as 20 to 30 mph, especially along the coast or near the bay. The push of cold air behind this front isn’t especially strong, so we’ll manage to get to 70 degrees today I think without too much trouble.
I did notice that it smells smoky outside this morning, and there are reports of haze around, so this could be smoke coming in on the northwest winds from wildfires in Central Texas. Several fires were occurring yesterday in Eastland County just east of Abilene. Given the gusty winds with the front, it’s probable that some of that got carried south. Whatever the case, don’t be alarmed if you smell smoke outside this morning, but today is an elevated fire weather day again, particularly in interior Texas.
It’s Marshmello night at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, and you won’t be happier with the weather outlook. It will be cool, with temperatures falling from the mid-60s as you arrive into the upper-50s as you exit. Winds will also drop off some in that time as well. Overall, not bad at all!
Weekend
This weekend looks just spectacular. We’ll lose the wind tomorrow, but we’ll keep the sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures. Since winds lighten up tonight, look for Saturday morning lows in the 40s over most of the area.
Cool nights and warm daytimes will define this weekend, as we enjoy some spectacular weather through Sunday. Saturday morning low temperatures shown here. (Pivotal Weather)
But with the sunshine tomorrow, we should easily push into the low to mid-70s.
Sunday looks similar, with a cool start and lows in the 40s, followed by sunshine and warmer weather, with highs well into the 70s, if not near 80 degrees. Humidity will inch up on Sunday, but the bulk of it will not arrive until Monday morning. Sunday’s only real gripe may be the wind, which will pick up some through the day, gusting onshore at around 15 to 20 mph by Sunday afternoon.
Monday and Tuesday
This will be the main period of concern for the forecast, as a number of issues will present themselves. The overarching storyline is that a strong storm system is going to develop over West Texas allowing for severe weather to develop ahead of it and drag a cold front through by Tuesday morning. This should allow for multiple rounds of showers and storms in our area, along with the potential for severe weather and heavy rain.
The Storm Prediction Center outlook for Monday has been remarkably consistent in calling for a 15 to 30 percent chance of severe weather in East & Southeast Texas. (NOAA via Pivotal Weather)
The Houston area remains included in the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Monday, with the highest risk north of Houston. It does appear that there will be some “capping” in the atmosphere Monday which muddies the risk a little bit over the Houston metro area. Capping, you’ll recall, tends to inhibit storm development. But there’s a clear trend toward that cap “breaking” north of Houston, which is why the higher probabilities of severe weather are north of Conroe. We probably won’t have a clear view on this until Sunday or even Monday morning. Either way, be prepared for scattered storms on Monday, any of which could be strong to severe, with the highest odds north of I-10.
You’ll also notice strong onshore winds Monday, with gusts of 30 mph possible, as the gradient tightens around the storm passing to our north.
We may get a lull in the action Monday evening before the prefrontal trough pushes through on Tuesday morning. This will likely provide heavy rainfall and the possibility of some severe weather as well. I can tell you right now, if the timing of this continues as steady as it has looked for a few days, there’s a chance many of us will be woken up by thunder in the middle of the night Monday into Tuesday morning. We’ll have the latest for you on this certainly Monday but possibly Sunday as well.
Dry air filters in Tuesday morning, which will allow temperatures to shoot up with sunshine Tuesday afternoon well into the 70s. The cold front itself will lag and not push through til Tuesday evening, likely with little fanfare. But it will allow for blustery north winds and cooler temperatures on Wednesday.
Later next week
As noted, Wednesday will be cooler but sunny, so look for morning lows in the 50s or even some 40s and daytime highs well into the 60s. Thursday should be cool as well, with morning 40s and daytime highs near 70 degrees. It will be less breezy on Thursday, with continued sunshine and low humidity.
