Matt Lanza

Through yesterday, the average temperature in Houston (Bush) is 67.5° for the month of December. Adding an expected 83 and, call it 68 today gets us to 67.8° for the month, shattering the record from 1933 by 3.4 degrees. This will also be the widest gap between warmest and second warmest of any month in Houston. Only August comes close, where the difference between the horrific August of 2011 and 2010 was 2.7 degrees. Basically, this December was Houston’s most anomalous warm month on record. There are a number of other stats and nuggets we could share, but we may save that for a separate post. Our spring fling is almost over though, and it’s time to break out the winter clothes.

Today

More of the same. 80s, sun, clouds, some fog this morning. Today’s record high in Houston is 82°, set back in 1974, and that seems likely to be tied or exceeded. The main difference between yesterday and today will probably be that coastal sea fog. Winds may kick up just enough today to dissipate most of it by afternoon. Look for haze and/or mist at times, however.

Saturday morning & early afternoon

Tomorrow will begin like most other days this month: Warm and humid. Look for temperatures at or above 70 degrees to start the day. It will be quite warm through the afternoon with highs pushing back into the 80s again. The 2006 New Year’s Day record of 81° seems destined to be broken.

Saturday late afternoon into Sunday

Our change in seasons will arrive in two pieces. The first will be a cold front on Saturday afternoon. This front will come through and shift winds from onshore to offshore. Onshore winds may actually be a bit stronger ahead of the front, so look for calmer conditions once the front is through. Temperatures may drop off just a few degrees. Additionally, there could be a shower or two but nothing serious.

The second piece will arrive Saturday night. Look for that to hit the northwest suburbs before Midnight and the city and southeast suburbs and coast around Midnight. There won’t be any mistaking this one.

Temperatures will quickly drop from the 60s into the 40s and winds will kick up out of the north, gusting 25 to 30 mph or even a bit stronger at times. By Sunday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the 30s in most spots, with freezing temperatures north and west of Houston and even some upper-20s possible near Huntsville.

For those of you heading off to services or for a walk on Sunday morning, temperatures will be 30 to 40 degrees colder than they were on Saturday morning, and with wind chill values in the 20s, it will feel 50 degrees colder. Bundle up! The day itself should be fine, just windy and cold with highs in the mid-40s.

Monday

Temperatures will drop steadily on Sunday night, and we should see much of the area, save for maybe the city and immediate coast reach the freezing mark by Monday morning.

This will be a pretty standard freeze for the Houston area, the type we usually see several times a winter. Sensitive plants should be protected, particularly outside the city. If you have a sprinkler system, it’s probably also a good idea to have it shut off and drained. Typical winter preps. But as far as significant problems, we shouldn’t see any.

The rest of Monday will offer a transition back to onshore winds and temperatures bouncing back into the 50s. A freeze is unlikely Monday night anywhere in our area. This will be a quick shot of cold.

Rest of next week

Warmer weather will really be noticeable by Tuesday with temperatures warming well into the 60s. On Wednesday we warm into the 70s again. By Thursday or Friday, another, potentially much weaker front is likely to push into the area to cool us back a few degrees. Model guidance suggests another significant warm-up into next weekend before perhaps more sustained seasonably cool weather for the second week of 2022.

Final word

I just want to echo Eric’s sentiment from yesterday. It’s been a great year for us, between, among other things, launching an app, launching a Spanish language site and bringing Maria on board, being honored by the city of Houston, and arguing with each other about whether September or August is worse.

But we recognize that it’s been another rough year for a lot of folks. I am grateful for the doctors and nurses and medical research community that makes Houston a true global hub for medical research and care. Essential workers, restaurant employees, and so many others who have toiled through sickness, closures, and just mean people, thank you as well. My hope is that 2022 will offer a return to stability, both in life and weather. I’m more hopeful for the former than the latter, but either way, we’ll be here for you. Thanks for relying on us as a source of weather information to keep you and your family prepared and informed. It’s a duty and responsibility we take seriously, and we look forward to continuing doing so in 2022, which hopefully marks a return to somewhat more precedented times. Happy New Year!

If the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 days for Bush Airport comes to fruition, it will be the second warmest 7-day period of weather during the winter months (December-February) on record for the city of Houston, exceeded only by a stretch in late February 1996. The forecast 74° average temperature over the next week would beat the previous December 24-30 record from 2016 by four full degrees. Basically, we’re heading into unprecedented territory for late December. The 5 day temperature anomaly forecast for the US and Canada is quite extreme. As warm as it is here is almost as cold as it’s going to be in, say, Calgary or Edmonton.

So, the forecast for Houston is pretty straightforward: Warm.

Today

You should be clear if you’re traveling anywhere today. Look for a mix of sun and clouds. It will be noticeably breezy today, with a steady south wind around 10 to 15 mph, a bit stronger over the water. Today’s record highs for Bush and Hobby are both 82°, set in different years (1955 and 1948 respectively). We’ll at least make an attempt to get there.

Christmas Day

I’m guessing Santa may tell his reindeer to come back to the Houston area when they wrap up their work on Christmas Eve, because tomorrow’s weather would warm the heart of anyone living at the North Pole. Look for more of the same: Sun, some clouds, a breeze, and temps warming from the 60s into the 80s. Santa can park himself somewhere on the Island and down a taco and margarita, or two.

The number to beat in Galveston is 76, and 83 is the record in Houston at both Hobby and Bush tomorrow. I think Galveston’s record will fall. Houston will be close, but given how this month has played out, I think we’ll have our warmest Christmas on record. We’ll see.

Sunday & Monday

See above. Maybe Santa can extend his stay. Hit up Kemah? The Texans are home this weekend. Maybe the roof will be open, though it might be too warm for that.

Rest of next week

So, let’s get serious for a second: When is the next cold front? Model support for one doesn’t real increase until next weekend as it stands right now. So for those of you who actually like colder season weather, I sincerely apologize. For those of you that love this, it’s your time to shine. Look for more 60s by night and 80s by day through Friday, possibly Saturday as well. Shower chances creep back in, but the models are quite unenthused about how much rain may occur through next Thursday or Friday.

Low clouds and fog should also return next week. But through Friday, I see nothing too noteworthy in terms of weather impacts outside of occasional fog and warm temperatures.

We’ll have more on Monday. Meanwhile, I’ll echo Eric’s sentiments from yesterday. I hope you have a wonderful, safe, and most importantly, healthy Christmas and holiday season. We are, as always, grateful and thankful for your support. Stay cool this weekend.

Good Saturday morning to you. We’re giving you a bonus weekend post to just give you a head’s up about today’s storms possibly packing a little more punch than expected.

Houston set another record high yesterday at 82° at both IAH and Hobby (tied). The atmosphere over Southeast Texas has atmospheric moisture available that is more typical for August or September than December, particularly south of I-10. When you combine that with wintertime meteorological dynamics and a cold front, you can produce some heavy rain and strong storms.

As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has nudged up our storm risk today to “slight,” which is level 2 of 5 on their scale.

As of 8 AM, the main line of storms associated with the cold front is just approaching the Bryan-College Station area. However, there are showers “front running” the main line. Some of those could strengthen as we warm up a couple degrees this morning.

So, for today expect scattered showers and storms to develop in the Greater Houston area between now and 11 AM. Any storms that develop do have the ability to become strong to severe. The main threat from storms today will be strong, gusty winds. Hail is possible south of Houston as well, closer to Matagorda Bay. The tornado threat today appears fairly low, but you can never entirely rule one out in these scenarios. Expect the main rain event to move in around midday, pushing south and east through the afternoon. Conditions should improve after 1 to 3 PM as most of this pushes offshore or into Louisiana.

In addition to the chance of some severe weather, these storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain for a short time. We should see 1 to 2 inches on average, though that may vary a good bit from place to place, with some seeing a bit under an inch perhaps. Regardless, some localized street flooding and areas of ponding are likely today.

Bottom line: Have a way to receive weather warnings today, just to be safe. Storms could be strong to severe, particularly from 10 AM to 2 PM. Heavy rain is likely in spots, and some localized street flooding can’t be ruled out.

The rest of the forecast from Friday is mostly unchanged. We just wanted to re-emphasize the storm risk today. Stay safe, and try to enjoy the day.

Let’s start today’s post with some numbers as of yesterday, the 16th of December.

68.4°: The average temperature for December so far in Houston, a record for the warmest first 16 days of the month.
11: The number of 80° days recorded at Hobby Airport so far this December. (tying a record; it should be broken today)
9: The number of 80° days recorded at Bush Airport so far this December. (the record should be tied today)
5: The number of record warm low temperatures set or tied in Galveston this month.

Yes, it has been the warmest start to December on record in Houston. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will finish as the warmest December in our recorded history, but clearly this is an abnormal month. If you’ve had enough, you’ll get a chance to enjoy cooler weather beginning tomorrow. If you want more of this, there is a non-zero chance you’ll have an opportunity for that again in about a week.

Today

We have some dense fog across parts of the area this morning, particularly near the bays and Gulf and in the outskirts of the suburbs. Look for clearing this morning, and that will likely lead to one more day of low to mid-80s across the area with very high humidity.

Records today are 81° at Bush, 82° at Hobby, and 77° at Galveston. All three seem likely to be tied or fall.

Saturday

For those of you planning something outdoors on Saturday, the news is not great. Rain should develop in the morning, possibly heavy at times and accompanied by thunder. Rain will likely shut off from northwest to southeast through the early to mid-afternoon. We may manage a dry stretch after 3 PM. This will be especially true north and west of Houston. How much rain are we expecting?

We should see on the order of a half-inch to an inch of rain across the area, welcome moisture for an area slowly trying to nudge into drought. Some areas will see more than that, however. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out either, particularly from Houston south and east.

The front should get through the northwest suburbs of Houston by mid to late morning, the central part of the area by midday and the coast by early afternoon. Temperatures will drop from the 70s into the 60s, if not the 50s as the front passes, and they’ll stay there or slowly drop off a few more degrees through the day. In addition to cooler temperatures, a brisk north wind gusting to 20 mph or so will add some chill to the air.

Sunday

We’ll likely see a mix of clouds and sun on Sunday with temperatures warming from the 40s into the 50s, maybe upper 50s to near 60 with enough sunshine. It will remain at least a little breezy on Sunday.

Monday

A weak system will pass to our south Monday morning, perhaps passing close enough to deliver a few showers or even a rumble of thunder to the area before skies clear out late. The best chance for showers will be the closer you get to the coast. Look for morning lows again in the 40s with highs likely only at best in the mid-50s, possibly even a bit cooler.

Tuesday through Thursday

Look for very nice weather for the middle of next week. Both Tuesday and Wednesday should be partly to mostly sunny. High temperatures should be in the 60s after morning lows in the 40s. Tuesday morning could even see some 30s in spots. Onshore flow should begin to kick back in on Thursday, but we’ll likely see a mix of sun and clouds and lower 70s with morning lows in the upper-40s and 50s. If you’re looking for some optimal holiday-ish weather for Galaxy Lights, Zoo Lights, Lightscape at the Houston Botanic Garden, or just walking around the neighborhood, you’ll have it here.

Christmas Eve & Christmas Day

Based on the best available modeling to us today, we have a cold front that will at least flirt with us on Christmas. There remains a very wide spread in possible outcomes. If you compare just the Euro and GFS operational models this morning, you get about a 15 degree spread in temperature outcomes for Christmas morning.

Ensemble models don’t offer much clarity, with about 60% of the European ensemble members pushing a front through by Christmas and maybe 5% of GFS ensemble members. So, it will either be pleasantly cool (close to normal) or warm & muggy. One thing we can say with some confidence: It will probably not be truly cold this Christmas.

Eric and I will keep you posted next week.