Matt Lanza

Good afternoon! There has not been much change in weather modeling since this morning, which is a good thing for Houston, as that means we expect, with fairly high confidence that Tropical Storm Ida will stay well east of the Houston area, causing only some fringe impacts along the coast. Good news for Houston means bad news for someone else unfortunately, and Louisiana looks to see the core of impacts from Ida. The Gulf has been exceptionally unforgiving in recent years.

Right off the bat I just want to show you how far we have come in terms of track forecast confidence in the last 24 hours. Here is an animation showing yesterday’s ensemble “spread” from the GFS ensemble. Just to quickly recap: The ensemble consists of over 30 individual model runs, each one tweaked just a little at initialization (hour 0) and then run like any other model out over two weeks. The advantage of using an ensemble is that you get a wider range of possible outcomes, which can guide your forecasting, and it can also perhaps highlight areas of higher confidence. In this case, over a 24 hour period, the ensemble went from a wide, unruly range of outcomes to a fairly tightly packed group of outcomes.

That helps boost our confidence. As you can see there, is still a bit of a range of possible outcomes, but instead of ranging from Mexico to Florida, they now primarily range from the Texas/Louisiana border to the Mississippi/Alabama border. And virtually all of these outcomes spare Houston any impacts.

Hurricane models are also in good agreement on this, so we’ve seen our confidence in a miss for Houston grow exponentially in the last 12 to 18 hours or so.

Here is the official National Hurricane Center forecast track for (now) Tropical Storm Ida.

They are explicitly bringing it close to major hurricane status (110 mph is the maximum forecast at this time) as it makes landfall on the Louisiana coast Sunday. There is still some uncertainty around timing and exact intensity, but the takeaway message from the NHC discussion and forecast is that a strengthening hurricane is likely to make landfall in central or eastern Louisiana on Sunday night.

I know some folks are concerned about the Lake Charles area after last year. While they are not out of the woods yet, most model data and this forecast implies that impacts to Lake Charles would be fringe and mostly limited to just some outer bands with a few gusty thunderstorms. The Beaumont and Port Arthur areas should expect similar conditions.

Locally, we will want to keep an eye on tides, rip currents, and rough surf this weekend in the Gulf. If you’re planning a beach weekend, keep the rip current risk in mind, as swells from the storm approach Sunday into Monday. I will have some more on that in the morning.

As far as rainfall, we should not see any direct rainfall from the storm here in Houston. The heaviest rain appears as though it will fall in central and eastern Louisiana and Mississippi.

Some of the storms we get the next few days in Houston, unrelated to Ida, could be a bit heavy, including some tonight. Storms will be moving east to west across the area, which isn’t terribly common, but again, this is not related to the tropical system. Eric’s morning post still looks good for tonight and tomorrow if you need some more details.

Beyond that, we can exhale in Houston for now it seems. There will be other tropical systems to watch over the next 2 to 3 weeks, but none of them looks like a specific threat to our area at this time. Surely that could change, but that is all we can say right now. In the meantime, our thoughts are with our neighbors to the east who will likely be forced to endure yet another considerable tropical system.

Thursday saw the beginning of the transition from our wet pattern this week to a much drier one as we head into the weekend. Recent rain totals have varied widely across the area. Let’s quickly just look at rain totals for the last 7 days.

Since last week, we’ve seen as much as 6 and a half inches of rain between the Galleria and Beltway, with the highest observed total I can find being 6.68″ at Buffalo Bayou and San Felipe. New Territory out by Sugar Land has seen over 5 inches over the last week, as have parts of Pasadena and Cypress as well. On the flip side, Katy, Galveston, and League City have all registered maybe a half-inch or less. So that map above may not be entirely accurate for your specific backyard. That’s the challenge of Southeast Texas rain. Literally one side of the street can see rain while the other side is dry. Speaking of rain, it will be a rare commodity over the next 4 to 5 days or so, as summer revs back up.

Today through Sunday

The chance of rain between now and Sunday is certainly not zero, but it’s probably as close to that as you can get this time of year in Southeast Texas. Expect mostly sunny skies the next several days. Here’s the good news, sort of: While it will be hot this weekend with highs well into the mid, if not upper-90s, it will not be exceptionally humid. That said, it will still be hot enough for heat index values to easily top off at or just above 105° each afternoon, which is hot enough to take it easy and drink plenty of water.

Morning lows will be in the 70s. There should be a little breeze each day, but nothing too refreshing or intrusive.

One thing to keep in mind this weekend: As Tropical Storm Grace approaches Mexico, well to our south, some rough surf and strong rip currents should make it to the coast here in Texas. Please use caution if you’ll be swimming in the Gulf. Also, there could be some minor tidal flooding with wave runup, particularly near Surfside Beach or Crystal Beach. Nothing too serious, but we don’t want you to be caught off guard by that.

Monday and Tuesday

Look for a gradual increase in onshore flow. Coupled with a rather hot air mass still overhead, this should yield slightly more unpleasant heat index values, with some areas perhaps sneaking up closer to 110° or so in the afternoon, especially after the sea breeze comes through. That said, the return of onshore flow should mean the return of at least some minor rain chances. Look for a couple showers or storms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. But most of us will probably continue dry.

Later next week

The pattern should return to one that’s at least slightly cooler with more typical rain chances for this time of year. Still, expect generally mid-90s each day.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Grace is in the Bay of Campeche this morning, and it will arrive in Mexico tonight as a hurricane (Editor’s note: It strengthened back into a hurricane just after this post was published).

Grace may actually cross Mexico and wind up in the Pacific Ocean, becoming a new storm next week. Grace would have to maintain organization all the way across to keep the name Grace on the other side. That probably won’t happen, so it’s more likely that Grace will dissipate and reform as a new system in the Pacific. Their next name on the list is Marty. The last storm to fully maintain itself from the Atlantic to the Pacific was Hurricane Otto in 2016. Last season’s Hurricane Nana crossed Belize, dissipated, and reformed in the Pacific as Tropical Storm Julio.

Anyone with friends or family or travel plans in New England will want to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Henri this weekend. Henri has failed to get really organized as of yet, which is good news, as a stronger storm likely would make it farther west before turning. Still, it’s expected to become a hurricane this weekend, and it is now likely to make landfall in New England or perhaps Long Island as a hurricane.

As a result of this, hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect from just east of New York City to just south of Boston. There are still some uncertainties as to exactly how strong Henri will be and where it will make landfall, but given how wet the Northeast has been this summer, flooding could be a significant problem where it does track.

While 3 to 5 inches of rain sounds almost laughable to us in Houston, given the terrain of New England that can cause trouble up there.

Lastly, while we expect a quiet Gulf over the next week, there are at least some hints that tropical moisture or a disturbance could sneak into the western Gulf late next weekend or the week of the 30th. While there’s not a ton of support for anything specific or particularly strong, I think that is the next period we’ll be keeping tabs on in the days ahead. Nothing we need to worry about at this juncture though.

Not a ton of storms yesterday, but those that did occur were noisy, and one even produced a tornado in northwest Harris County.

Tornadoes aren’t exactly commonplace in summertime storms around here, and nothing about yesterday was especially remarkable from a severe weather risk standpoint. This tornado may have been more like a “landspout” rather than a classic tornado. But Thursday’s event serves as a good example of how a tornado can occur if the right conditions come together, even briefly. Sometimes these things just happen. Moving on, we have another pair of fairly typical summertime days before things get perhaps a little more unsettled later this weekend.

Friday & Saturday

Both today and tomorrow look fairly similar for the most part with sunshine, some clouds, and hot, humid weather. Look for highs in the mid-90s, possibly upper-90s. Lows will be generally in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Rain chances are in the general 20 to 40 percent range both days, with Friday perhaps seeing higher risks south and Saturday seeing higher risks north.

Sunday

I think I’ve used the word “front” this summer more times than in any previous summer in my almost 10 years in Houston. Yet another “cool” front will approach the region Sunday. As per usual in August, it won’t clear our area, and we almost certainly won’t see less humidity. But it will likely be enough to help increase our shower & storm chances closer to 50 percent or even a bit higher. So, of course, that means some neighborhoods likely won’t see rain this weekend, but others could get doused with a couple inches in a short time.

With clouds and showers more prevalent regionally on Sunday, we will probably see slightly cooler temperatures, and highs should top off in the low to mid-90s with morning lows in the 70s.

Early next week

I think Monday will just be a logical extension of Sunday’s weather with slightly higher than usual storm coverage during the day and temperatures perhaps held back a degree or two due to clouds. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the pattern should gradual resolve back to more typical August with daily, sea breeze driven showers and storms and highs generally in the mid-90s and lows in the 70s.

Tropics

Fred has struggled a good bit since yesterday, barely holding on at times. But Fred’s not quite dead yet we don’t think, and it looks as though it will at least try to regain a little momentum as it lifts north into the Eastern Gulf. It is not a concern for Texas at this time.

Fred should still struggle, even if it better organizes some, as the system deals with wind shear that is not expected to relent much between now and landfall. Look for a moderate tropical storm, probably at worst. Rainfall of between 4 and 10 inches is possible along and east of where Fred tracks, meaning a good bit of Florida will get a good bit of rain. Georgia and Alabama may also see some fairly healthy rain.

Behind Fred, the system called “Invest 95L” will continue along west-northwest, with high odds of developing into a tropical system by the time it gets to the northern Caribbean islands. It should face similar challenges to Fred, so I’d only expect slow, gradual development at this time. We should continue to monitor Invest 95L’s progress, but at this point, our best models continue to say this is unlikely to be a western Gulf threat. Another area of storms may emerge off Africa this weekend that will have some slight odds to slowly develop also.

There was nothing inherently special about yesterday. We had some sun, some clouds, some haze from passing wildfire smoke. But we only managed to hit 89° officially at Bush Airport with dew point temperatures in the 60s for the majority of the day.

For August, that is almost as good as it gets around here. We are going to see changes this weekend, and a return to more typical summer weather should be expected over the next few days.

Friday

Today looks like a bit of a transition day. We bring back some humidity. We bring back some temperatures. And we bring back at least a smattering of hit or miss showers, downpours, or thunderstorms. Not everyone will get wet today, but about 30 to 40 percent of the region should see at least something. The highest odds for showers should be south and west of Houston initially, but some areas north and east may see some showers by afternoon. Highs will top off in the low-90s.

Weekend

We’ve had a lot of high clouds and passing moisture overhead this week that’s blocked out the sun at times. We should lose that for the weekend. Expect a return to mainly sunshine, high humidity, and highs in the low to mid-90s and lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees. It will feel like 105° or a bit hotter at times this weekend when you factor in the humidity.

Showers will again be possible both days, but coverage should slack off some, maybe peaking at 20 to 30 percent chances. In other words, if you see some rain, consider yourself lucky. There should be a slight breeze each afternoon but nothing too special.

Next week

There’s nothing particularly interesting about the weather next week as it stands right now. That’s good news in August and September, right? Expect daily chances of thunderstorms to perhaps increase a little each afternoon. But some areas will get drenched while others just hear the distant booms of atmospheric acoustics. Otherwise, expect sun and clouds with highs in the low to mid-90s each day and lows in the 70s, fairly typical for August.

Tropics

It’s tough to make much out of what’s happening in the Atlantic right now. There are a number of possible options for development over the next 5 to 7 days, and maybe one area that’s more clear cut than others (which is assigned a 60 percent chance to develop this morning according to the NHC). We’ll have an update on this Monday and Tuesday. But as of right now, there’s not any model or group of models that’s especially bullish on any one outcome, let alone one that brings it to the Gulf. So we have some time to watch.

Following up on Eric’s post yesterday about NOAA’s seasonal forecast update, Colorado State followed suit on Thursday. They actually reduced their forecast a smidge, though they’re still calling for a season that ends up fairly active in the end. They also released a “subseasonal” outlook, which looks out at the next 2 weeks or so, and it unsurprisingly is calling for a period of above average activity in the Atlantic, something we’ve talked about for a little while now. So we’ll see. The setup in the Atlantic reminds me a bit of what we sometimes see in the western Caribbean or over Central America with what we call a “gyre.” You get a lot of storminess, models hinting at development, but little agreement on which portion of the broader mess becomes dominant. The good news is that it all continues to look mostly sloppy and disorganized for at least several more days.