Over the next week or so, southeast Texas is going to be visited or perhaps taunted by several cold fronts. We still have questions regarding the exact timing of most of them, but we can continue to point to some windows of when they’re most likely. Our first one arrives later today. Let’s break it down.
Today
Our first cold front is still off to the north, steadily heading this way. That won’t arrive until later, and ahead of it, look for a few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm through the day. Many places will probably stay dry, but in general, the odds of storms may increase a bit late this afternoon. More of the same temperature-wise, with 80s and fairly uncomfortable humidity.
The front should arrive in the northwest suburbs late this afternoon and in the immediate Houston area after 4-5 PM or so. Behind the front we’ll see temperatures drop off 5 or 10 degrees, and you’ll notice a fairly brisk breeze out of the north.
Weekend
Saturday morning will start off much cooler than we’ve had in recent days. Many places will start in the 50s, with 60s south and east of Houston.
For those looking for a more autumn feel, Saturday morning will provide low temperatures that fit the script a bit better. (NOAA forecast via Weather Bell)
Expect a good deal of cloud cover tomorrow morning. We should see increasing sunshine in the afternoon. High temperatures will top off in the mid-70s in most places. If clouds are a bit more stubborn, we may not get out of the upper-60s, however.
Onshore flow resumes later Saturday, and the humidity will slowly inch back up into Sunday. Morning lows on Sunday will be in the 60s in most places. With a mix of clouds and sun, we’ll probably make it to 80 degrees or a couple degrees warmer on Sunday afternoon. We’ll mention that a passing shower cannot be entirely ruled out Sunday, though it’s likely to be dry in most places.
Next week
Things turn very, very messy from a confidence in details perspective on Monday and Tuesday. Another cold front pushes into the Houston area, but it appears that this one is going to stall out right over the city, almost perfectly over US-59/I-69. This means clouds, perhaps some sun, and at least a chance of showers and storms. Temperatures later Monday and Tuesday may be rather variable across the area with the east side perhaps 10 to 15 degrees warmer than the west side of the region with high humidity south and east and lower humidity north and west. This can be seen when you look at forecast dewpoints from the European model.
Forecast dewpoints from the European model show the front, the boundary between more humid and less humid air straddling the Houston area from late Monday into early Wednesday. (Pivotal Weather)
Notice how the boundary between the more humid air (in purple and dark turquoise) and less humid air (in green) basically straddles Houston for most of Tuesday before shifting back west (meaning everyone warms up a bit) on Wednesday. Basically, this is a front that taunts us mostly.
After it pushes back west on Wednesday, look for a warm day. The front should finally get a shove through the entire area by Thursday or Friday. I don’t want to commit to a day just yet because modeling has handled fronts in the days 5 to 8 range quite poorly this autumn. But we still believe we’ll get a clean cold front passage late next week, hopefully setting up a nice daylight saving time weekend. More on that Monday!
In case you missed it, today is our fifth anniversary at Space City Weather! It’s a privilege to be part of this, and thanks to Eric for keeping me around these last five years. We have some fun things planned down the line, and as always we’ll be here when you need us.
Good morning. We’ve had quite the array of rainfall totals across the region since yesterday evening.
Rain totals have ranged from nothing at all to almost 2 inches in parts of the area, with Spring, The Woodlands, the Northside, and EaDo seeing the highest totals. (Harris County Flood Control)
Areas near Spring and The Woodlands saw north of an inch and a half of rain, while parts of Galveston and Brazoria Counties saw virtually no rain at all. East Bernard (not shown) in Wharton County also likely received close to 2 inches of rainfall.
Today
The front is through, and showers continue in its wake. These showers may be a bit stubborn to end. Areas north and west of Houston will likely see brightening skies this afternoon. But showers could persist off and on elsewhere. We’ll struggle a bit in the temperature department today, with cloud cover dictating how warm we get. Those that see sunshine could push 70 degrees, while those under clouds and showers through early afternoon may not get much above the low-60s. Northeast winds will be noticeable, giving today a distinct autumn feel as they gust to 20 mph or so in Houston and as high as 35 mph near the bays and Gulf.
Weekend
Overall, if you have weekend plans, you’ll be fine in most cases. There’s a little nuance to touch on though.
Saturday will be a bit of a toss-up day. The morning should be beautiful, cool and crisp, with temperatures generally in the 50s inland and 60s at the coast.
Morning lows in the 50s inland and 60s at the coast and south will be the rule for Saturday morning. (NOAA forecast via Weather Bell)
But we will see some cloud cover around, especially extending from southwest to northeast through the day. A little sporadic light rain or drizzle will be possible, mainly southwest of Houston. High temperatures should find their way into the upper-70s in most spots, perhaps 80 degrees or so with enough sunshine. Winds should be a more reasonable 5 to 15 mph.
On Sunday, the morning won’t be nearly as cool, with lows in the 70s at the coast and mid- to upper-60s inland. Onshore flow resumes, and you’ll notice building humidity by Sunday morning. We should see a mix of sun and clouds, and an isolated shower can’t be entirely ruled out. Looks for highs back firmly into the 80s in most spots.
Early next week
Monday should be a similar day to Sunday with warm temperatures, high humidity, and at least a chance for a passing shower or storm. Tuesday likely carries slightly better chances for scattered showers or thunderstorms. More of the same follows Wednesday. It’s a bit tough to pin down which days and times will have the highest rain chances, as we’re dealing with some fast moving disturbances that are difficult to time out this far in advance. But in general, early next week is clouds & sun, a chance for thunderstorms, and highs in the 80s, lows mostly in the 70s. Our next front is unlikely before next weekend.
Tropics
Eric’s touched on the tropics a bit this week. The bottom line is that we have nothing at all to worry about here.
The potential for a couple more tropical systems exists next week, but none will be an issue in the western Gulf. (NOAA NHC)
The Caribbean system may develop, but it would track due north and eventually northeast, away from the Gulf and probably away from the U.S. Another system seems likely to develop in the open waters of the Atlantic. The next two names on the list are Epsilon and Zeta.
6:20 am CT Friday: Hurricane Delta has completed its north turn and is now steaming toward the Louisiana coast. Delta is a large storm in size, and as a result, we are seeing some rain here in the Houston area, especially on the east side. But Delta will exit quickly tonight, setting the stage for a sunny weekend but also the return of heat.
Hurricane Delta Update
As of the 4 am CT advisory, Hurricane Delta still had 120 mph maximum sustained winds, supported by observations from aircraft investigating the storm. Since that advisory, little has changed for the most part, but Delta is now moving into an area of high shear and cooler water temperatures.
Hurricane Delta is moving into a much more hostile environment for a hurricane, with substantial wind shear (indicated by the red contours on this map), cooler water temperatures, and likely some dry air as well. (University of Wisconsin CIMSS/SSEC)
In addition, the southern side of the storm is beginning to feel the effects of drier air being swept off Texas and Mexico in the wake of its passage. The GFS model image below is valid for Noon today and shows drier air (brown) getting dragged into the southern half of the storm. Delta is likely to come ashore fairly lopsided, with a potent northern half and a much more frazzled and weaker southern half.
Dry air will also help to begin to weaken Delta as it wraps into the southern half of the storm through the day today. (Tropical Tidbits)
So this storm has likely peaked in intensity over the Gulf and will slowly weaken up to landfall. That said, it remains a dangerous storm, as the large size of it will allow for a storm surge in Louisiana that is more significant than the storm’s landfall intensity will probably suggest. In addition, the expansive tropical storm force wind field (which now has a radius of 160 miles north and east of the center) will allow for damaging winds in weakened, vulnerable parts of Louisiana. So for southwest Louisiana, this remains a serious storm.
Local impacts from Delta
We have already begun to see tides increase on the Upper Texas coast. San Luis Pass is just on the cusp of minor flooding this morning.
San Luis Pass is just on the edge of minor flooding as of this morning’s high tide. (NOAA)
We are now past high tide, so this will likely level off now or perhaps rise just a little more. A similar story is playing out in Galveston. Tidal levels on our slice of the Texas coast will probably be similar to what we saw with Hanna and Laura and lower than what was experienced with Beta. Watch for the risk of some minor flooding from the Galveston Bay side in Bolivar and Galveston itself later today with winds shifting behind Delta.
Rain continues to circulate in from the east, and most of the eastern half of the Houston metro has seen about a quarter-inch so far.
Rain will continue to pivot through the area during the course of the day. No flooding is expected in the Houston area. (College of DuPage)
Total rainfall in the Houston area should be under an inch for most folks, and no flooding is expected in our area. Look for upwards of 2 to 4 inches in the Golden Triangle, with minimal flooding issues expected and 6 to 8 inches in Lake Charles, where street flooding could be a bit more serious of a problem.
Winds at Galveston are gusting just a bit under tropical storm force this morning (35 mph as of 6 AM). We could see sustained winds or gusts to tropical storm force (45 mph or so) along the immediate Gulf coast. In Houston, wind gusts will be unlikely to get much past 25 or 30 mph, and no serious issues are expected due to wind for the vast majority of the region. Winds in the Beaumont area could gust to 40 to 50 mph, with slightly higher winds closer to the coast. In Lake Charles, winds could gust as high as 50 to 70 mph for a time later today, with hurricane conditions on the immediate coast of southwest Louisiana, in addition to a significant storm surge on the immediate Gulf coast there.
Eric and I continue to send our thoughts and best wishes to our neighbors in the east. Even a best case scenario outcome with Delta is still a pretty bad day for southwest Louisiana, and they will continue to need our help in recovery.
After Delta: Weekend
With Delta moving off to the north tonight and tomorrow, the Houston area is going to clear out quickly in its wake. Saturday should be a lovely day, albeit a bit warm. Expect sunshine with highs in the upper-80s. Humidity should be tolerable. More sunshine will follow Sunday, but temperatures are going to crank up and so will the humidity. Sunday is going to feel like a summer day, with highs in the low to mid-90s.
Sunday will feel like early September, with highs in the low to mid-90s and fairly uncomfortable humidity. (NWS forecast via Weather Bell)
For the holiday on Monday, expect more of the same, with at least low-90s and sunshine.
Tuesday & beyond
A cold front is likely to press into the area later on Monday, but how far south it gets is an open question. While a few showers will be possible, we expect this wash out over us, which should lead to a slight cooldown in temperatures and slightly lower humidity. By the end of the week, we may see a more robust cold front enter the picture, driving in more pleasant weather for next weekend, but even that is not a guarantee at this point. More on this for you on Monday.
Our next update on Delta will be posted by 2:30 pm CT today.
2:35pm CT Wednesday update: Good afternoon, and it’s good to be back. Thanks to Eric for dealing with an absentee site partner for the last couple weeks and getting us from Beta to Delta. I sincerely hope this is the last storm we have to write about for the Gulf this year.
Hurricane Delta is emerging into the Gulf from the Yucatan this afternoon.
Hurricane Delta is back over open water after emerging off the Yucatan this afternoon. (Weathernerds.org)
After being one of the quickest intensifying storms on record, Delta has taken a beating over the last 18-24 hours and, while it’s holding its own, maximum sustained winds of 100 mph may be a bit generous here. Either way, Delta is now back over warm water with relatively low wind shear, so odds favor it beginning to reintensify tonight.
The track forecast has continued to nudge a bit farther west, however that trend appears to be stable or ending now, and I think we’re close to the maximum for how far west Delta will track.
While Delta’s forecast track has nudged west a bit more today, that trend will likely stop or slow going forward, as almost all model guidance now has a landfall between Cameron and the west edge of Vermilion Bay in Louisiana. (NOAA)
The last big holdout, the European model, which had been advertising landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border has shifted east by a good 25 miles or more today, and virtually all reliable model guidance now has Delta’s landfall occurring between Cameron, LA and the western edge of Vermilion Bay, or very close to/slightly east of where Laura made landfall. A word of advice: Don’t focus too closely on every wobble and maneuver Delta makes over the next 24-48 hours. While there is still a small degree of uncertainty on the exact track of Delta, the odds that there would be a significant enough shift to detrimentally impact the Houston area is very, very, very small. We all brace ourselves for The Turn™ during these events, and it will happen.
As far as intensity goes, modeling has been slowly easing up on the excitement since last night. Some of that is likely due to what happened to Delta on approach into the Yucatan and land interaction. But as of this afternoon, virtually all intensity forecasts are for this to not get above a category 3 storm in the Gulf before it weakens on approach to the coast. Wind shear is going to likely increase significantly, and the storm will encounter cooler water as well beginning tomorrow night or Friday morning.
That said, the biggest change with Delta over the next couple days will likely be the expansion of its wind field. Larger storms usually have lower intensity ceilings, but they compensate for that by spreading tropical storm or hurricane force winds out over a larger area. You can see this wind field expansion on the HWRF model by looking at 10 meter winds (winds experienced at ground level will be somewhat lower than shown here). The map at left is this evening’s forecast, while the map at right is for Friday afternoon. Both maps are at the same spatial scale, and you can see how the tropical storm force wind field (green, yellow, red) basically doubles in size as Delta comes north.
The HWRF (and other models) show an impressive expansion of Delta’s wind field as it comes north across the Gulf, so even though Delta may weaken just before landfall, it will be capable of producing strong winds and large surge over a broad area. (Tropical Tidbits)
Hurricane force winds are in purple here also. So despite Delta perhaps being weaker, it will likely have impacts spread over a large swath of Louisiana and perhaps eastern Texas, with a significant surge once again possible along and east of where the center goes.
Speaking of surge, the first National Hurricane Center surge outlook was posted today, showing the potential for as much as 11 feet of surge above ground level if Delta comes ashore at high tide on Friday.
Surge values of 11 feet are possible along and east of the center if Delta comes ashore at high tide. (NOAA)
These surge values are rough, though certainly not quite as catastrophic as those seen in Hurricane Laura. But 11 feet of water is a bad day, and unfortunately, the areas around Vermilion Bay that were hammered during Laura are going to get another significant event with Delta.
Locally in the Galveston Bay area, we expect surge impacts to be more like Laura than Beta, with minor overwash possible near Bolivar and perhaps down Bluewater Highway south of Galveston into Brazoria County. Surge should not be much worse than 1 to 3 feet above normally dry ground. Storm Surge Watches have not been posted in our area, but they are hoisted east of High Island. Tropical Storm Watches have been posted from San Luis Pass to High Island.
Will we see tropical storm force winds in the Houston or Galveston areas? My hunch right now is that we won’t see this in Houston. Galveston always has a chance to briefly get to tropical storm force gusts or even sustained winds at times. But this would be mostly a Friday issue. At this point we don’t expect significant problems from wind in the Houston or Galveston areas.
For folks in southwest Louisiana and around the Beaumont/Port Arthur areas, the story is a little less clear. Assuming the wind field does expand as expected, we would likely see tropical storm force gusts and perhaps a period of sustained tropical storm force winds (35-55 mph) in the Beaumont or Port Arthur areas. In Lake Charles, which is still far from recovered from Laura, we expect about an 80 percent chance of sustained tropical storm force winds (greater than or equal to 39 mph) and about a 30 percent chance of sustained hurricane force winds (greater than or equal to 74 mph). This will not be another Laura in Lake Charles by any means whatsoever, however given that many, many structures in the city have not yet been repaired, this does have the potential to produce some considerable damage, particularly the farther west it comes ashore.
As far as rainfall goes, we don’t expect to see much more than perhaps a few outer bands in the Houston and Galveston areas. Rain totals will be manageable and no flooding is expected in our area.
Rain totals should be minimal in Houston and up to 6 or 8 inches in interior Louisiana. (NOAA outlook via Pivotal Weather)
In Louisiana, up to about 6 to 8 inches will be possible along and east of where the center comes ashore, which could cause minor to moderate flooding issues but really isn’t all that bad as far as these storms go. Delta will be a quick mover and out of there by Saturday morning.
Unless something dramatic changes this evening, our next update will be our regularly scheduled update on Thursday morning.
