CFP Championship Monday will bring gusty winds, rain, and at least some severe weather risk to Houston

We hope everyone is having a good weekend so far. Congratulations to the Texans on a huge win last night, and we’re looking forward to next weekend’s return to the Playoffs! Today looks great, weather-wise, so whether you’re calmly watching football, taking part in the CFP Championship activities around the area, or anything else, it looks great. Tomorrow is another matter, and that’s why we’re writing a post on Sunday!

Tonight and Monday morning

Expect clouds and moisture to surge into the area tonight. By early Monday morning, we should have areas of light rain, drizzle, or spotty showers across the area. Nothing significant is expected before 10 or 11 AM, but the coverage of showers and periods of light to moderate rain should increase across the area.

Monday afternoon and evening

The good news is that the best parameters for severe weather tomorrow afternoon seem to be north and east of the area, as is often the case this time of year. The bad news is that we’re not in the clear, exactly. With clouds and showers around Monday morning, we’re likely to have a bit of a cap in place in the atmosphere, which tends to limit how severe storms can get. As showers continue Monday afternoon, they may build in intensity a bit. There are some signs that the cap may try to erode a bit, particularly east and perhaps northeast of Houston as we go into the afternoon, however, and that’s why I think we want to continue to watch tomorrow closely.

If a storm can get established in the area and intensify, it could produce strong winds or hail tomorrow afternoon. An isolated tornado, especially near the coast or to the east of Houston is not out of the question either. Eric will have the latest for you on this on Monday morning.

Meanwhile, a second shot of storms, coming in the form of a line of them from Central Texas will approach the area right around 5 to 7 PM, just in time for folks to head to NRG Stadium for the CFP Championship. While we don’t expect significant severe weather with this line of storms, it will be capable of producing lightning, gusty winds, or small hail as it moves through, so from a tailgating point of view, be ready to get inside.

You’ll also notice a big time change in temperature as that line moves through during the evening. We will see temperatures drop from near 70 degrees before the line of storms into the mid-50s shortly after the rain kicks up.

Beyond the severe weather risk, tomorrow looks breezy. Onshore winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts to around 40 mph are possible. While this probably won’t cause major issues, there is the chances that some weaker tree branches could blow down. If you’ve still got holiday decorations up, you’ll want to secure those as well. Winds will ease up a bit in the evening hours, but by the time we get to Tuesday, we’ll see more wind, this time from the other direction (the north), gusting to 35 to 40 mph and stronger over and near the coast. There will be low water levels and rough seas on Tuesday.

Total rainfall will probably average a half-inch to inch for most places in our area. Some may see a bit less (especially down toward Wharton, El Campo, or Victoria), while others may see a bit more, especially east of Houston. No major flooding concerns are expected beyond the usual localized ponding in typical trouble spots.

Expect a roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures this week, and an increasing chance of the first real widespread freeze (a typical freeze, not a massive one) of the season on Saturday morning. Eric will have the latest on all that for you tomorrow.